Overseas Updates
The US Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs under IEEPA illegal. Trump admin plans new tariffs via Section 232, 301, 122, adding economic uncertainty.
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On Feb 21, US President Trump announced raising global import tariffs from 10% to 15% immediately, citing a Supreme Court ruling. The move follows the Court's 20th ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act doesn't authorize large tariffs, sparking global reactions and concerns over market turbulence, increased costs, and policy uncertainty.
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US White House announced on the 9th a trade agreement with Bangladesh (providing preferential access for US industrial/agricultural products). US will cut Bangladesh's "equivalent tariff" from 20% to 19% and consider exempting some textiles. Bangladeshi sides note limited impact on export competitiveness, concerned the symbolic cut won't change their industries' US market disadvantage. Trump admin imposed 37% tariff on Bangladesh in April 2025, reduced to 20% last August.
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The European Commission proposed the Digital Networks Act to unify EU network rules, promote fiber deployment (phase out copper cables), reduce operator costs, and compete in global digital governance, with debates on potential protectionism risks.
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The number of US farmers' bankruptcies has doubled, with agricultural economy deteriorating. Trump's tariff policies raise input costs, cut market share (soybeans halved). Two joint letters urge Congress to exempt agricultural inputs from tariffs and aid farmers, as economists predict $44b net loss in 2025-2026.
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The European Central Bank (ECB) urges the EU to accelerate digital euro progress, warning of over-reliance on non-EU (especially US) payment firms. The digital euro (not replacing cash) aims to boost payment autonomy; plans include 2026 legal framework, 2027 pilot, 2029 launch.
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After year-long negotiations, India and the U.S. reached a temporary trade agreement framework. A formal deal is planned for March, with key factors being India’s Russian oil purchases and agricultural interests. India faces domestic opposition; the U.S. reduced tariffs on some Indian goods, while India cut tariffs on U.S. industrial/agricultural products.
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From Feb 7-9, 2026, the first meeting of 2026 APEC Business Advisory Council (APEC China Year's first business event) was held in Jakarta. Representatives exchanged on 4 key areas, proposed constructive suggestions, and China's connectivity working group was widely supported. Over 200 from 21 APEC economies attended.
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China will host the 2026 APEC, including the 33rd Leaders' Informal Meeting in Shenzhen in November. The theme is "Building an Asia Pacific Community and Promoting Common Prosperity" with priorities on openness, innovation, cooperation. Preparations are underway to boost regional and global economic cooperation.
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Brazil's 2025 trade surplus will hit $68.3B with historic exports ($348.7B) and imports ($280.4B). Though the US lifted 40% tariffs on some goods, 22% of exports to the US still face extra tariffs. Brazil responded with measures (Sovereign Brazil Plan, tax relief, market diversification) targeting emerging markets (India, Turkey) and increasing non-US exports to 72%.
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US unilaterally raised tariffs on South Korean goods from 15% to 25% (citing S. Korea's unapproved trade agreement). S. Korea expressed regret, noted unresolved negotiation differences, discussed countermeasures. The 2025 US-S.Korea trade framework faced S. Korean opposition; media/experts criticized US unilateralism.
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On February 2, US President Trump stated a US-India trade agreement was reached, with India to stop Russian oil purchases and US lowering tariffs. However, India hasn’t confirmed the oil stop. Analysts say India may not fully halt Russian oil imports due to strategic, economic, feasibility reasons, and the deal eases trade tensions but won’t heal deep US-India rifts.
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Russian President Putin stated Russia's 2025 GDP growth will be 1% (lower than 2023's 4.1%/2024's 4.3%), due to anti-inflation measures; 2025 inflation dropped to 5.6%, expected to hit 5% this year, with 3-year cumulative GDP growth 9.7%.
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US unilaterally raised tariffs on South Korean goods (15%→25%) citing unapproved trade agreement. South Korea expressed regret, noted unresolved differences, and will continue negotiations. The 2025 US-South Korea trade framework faced domestic opposition, with media/experts criticizing US unilateralism.
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The UK and Switzerland completed a new round of upgraded FTA negotiations to deepen economic and trade cooperation. The new agreement covers services, investment, digital trade, extends service mobility to 2029, and adds a "Trade and Sustainable Development" chapter. Switzerland is the UK's 10th largest trading partner, with bilateral trade at £49 billion by Sept 2025, services over 60%.
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The report states that if Canada removes domestic trade barriers, its real GDP can grow by nearly 7%
On local 27th, IMF report shows Canada's real GDP could grow nearly 7% long-term if eliminating internal trade barriers between 13 provinces/territories (equivalent to 210b CAD). Current barriers average 9% tariff (over 40% in some services). Canada should integrate domestic market amid global growth pressure; it previously reduced some barriers under US tariff threat. PM Carney commits to strengthening domestic development, enhancing resilience, diversifying trade, reducing US dependence.
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French economy forecast to grow 0.9% in 2025 (above prior 0.7%, below 2024's 1.1%), supported by household consumption, public expenditure and foreign trade. Eurozone/EU 2025 growth: 1.5%/1.6%; Germany 0.3%. French minister targets 1% growth in 2026.
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After US Trump announced raising tariffs on South Korea from 15% to 25%, South Korea sent a delegation for consultations. US has initiated tariff procedures, and negotiations (involving South Korea's US investment, needing a special act vs US demanding a timetable) have uncertainty. South Korea accelerates the act's legislation, but US may continue pressure depending on its progress.
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Indonesia's 2025 trade surplus hit $41.05 billion (up from 2024's $31.33 billion), with 68 consecutive months of surplus since May 2020. Driven by non-oil and gas exports, China is its top export destination, the US contributes most to the surplus. Electrical machinery imports grew 17.22% YoY, steel imports dropped 11.17%.
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On Jan 28 local time in Berlin, German officials noted US tariff hikes pressure global trade and hinder supply chains. Germany's exports to the US dropped 9.4% Jan-Nov 2025. US tariff threats and Ukraine conflict add uncertainty; German industry faces headwinds.
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