Overseas Updates
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung started a state visit to China on Jan 4. Sectors in South Korea expect stronger economic, trade and emerging industry cooperation. A 200-enterprise economic delegation was formed, and the capital market reacted positively. Reports note their competition-complementarity structure, with Korean businesses learning from China's tech progress.
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Turkiye's Ministry of Trade issued Announcement 2025/45 on Dec 31,2025, initiating the second sunset review anti-dumping investigation on polyester synthetic filament yarn (tax no.5402.47) from China, India, Malaysia. Stakeholders submit materials within 37 days; past related actions are noted.
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On January 2, 2026, the US Department of Commerce initiated the second anti-dumping and countervailing sunset review investigation on Chinese passenger vehicle and light truck tire imports, while the USITC launched a corresponding industry injury investigation. Stakeholders have specific response deadlines.
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Turkish President Erdogan stated Turkey's 2025 goods exports hit a record $273.4b (up 4.5%), total goods/services exports expected $396.5b. Automotive industry is strong (1.5m vehicles, $41b exports; 4th in Europe, 12th globally). Defense exports rose from $248m (2002) to $9.87b (2025). 2026 target is $410b.
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The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade released the October Global Economic and Trade Friction Index. US and India rank top in the index, with electronics, pharmaceuticals etc. as key friction points. China-related index is 102, US has the highest China-related index.
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In 2025, the US implements conservative economic and trade protectionist policies, with complex trends (low-to-high growth, easing inflation, cooling employment). 2026 forecast relies on AI and consumption but faces risks like debt, inflation, and geopolitical frictions.
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The US imposed an economic strangulation (oil blockade) on Venezuela after failed military pressure, aiming to cut its main revenue and push regime change, exposing resource imperialism. Venezuela resists, with the US facing domestic political and industry constraints.
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On December 23, 2025, the US Department of Commerce issued final anti-dumping (86.45%-126.14%, adjusted 60.76%-100.45%) and anti-subsidy (172.08%) rulings on Indian overhead door torsion springs, involving customs codes 7320.5020 etc. It also noted prior investigations and preliminary rulings on China and India's products.
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Indonesian Minister Elronga stated on Dec 22 that US-Indonesia reached consensus on bilateral trade agreement substantive issues, to be signed by end Jan 2026. US grants tariff exemptions on Indonesian palm oil/tea/coffee in exchange for key minerals; no poison pill clause included.
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The US announced tariffs on Chinese mature process chips starting in 2027 (0% currently), ending a year-long 301 investigation. It aims to ease Sino-US trade tensions and consolidate a ceasefire, while China opposes the move and warns of countermeasures.
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On Dec 19, 2025, the European Commission issued a final anti-dumping ruling on Chinese-origin choline chloride, setting duties (115.9%, 90.0% etc.) for specific enterprises. It notes involved product codes, investigation periods, effective date (day after announcement), and prior steps (Oct 31, 2024 launch, Jun 30, 2025 preliminary ruling).
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On Dec 24, 2025, India's Revenue Department issued Notice 37/2025 Customs (ADD), accepting the positive final anti-dumping ruling on Vietnamese Calcium Carbonate Filler Masterbatches (HS code 38249900) and imposing 5-year anti-dumping duties (0-75 USD/ton). The investigation started in Sep 2024, with final ruling on Sep 27, 2025.
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US third-quarter 2025 GDP grew 4.3% year-on-year (higher than Q2's 3.8%), driven by consumer spending, exports and government spending. First quarter had negative growth, Q4 expected to slow, 2025 full-year growth predicted at 2% or lower.
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On Dec 22, 2025, the German Economic Research Institute reported Germany's exports to the US dropped nearly 8% YoY in Jan-Sep 2025 due to US tariffs, with auto, chemical and machinery (pillar industries) accounting for 70% of the decline. Exports fell below 2022 levels. Suggestions include reducing US dependence, developing new markets like South America, India and Indonesia, and enhancing domestic industrial competitiveness.
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In 2025, the EU economy demonstrates resilience with 1.4% moderate growth, stable inflation near the ECB's target, but faces weak growth, trade frictions, energy transition challenges, and regional disparities, requiring deeper reforms to unlock potential.
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Japan plans to cancel the consumption tax exemption for cross-border e-commerce goods under 10,000 yen in FY2026, affecting Chinese platforms like Temu and Xiyin and pushing up Japanese prices. Global countries (US, EU) are tightening similar policies; China's cross-border e-commerce needs adjustments but its advantage remains.
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The Dutch Central Bank released its 2025 autumn economic forecast on Dec 19, showing 2025 growth at 1.7% (above expectation), 2026-2027 at 1.2% & 1.1%. Trade and government spending drive growth, while corporate investment faces challenges; fiscal policy has limited expansion room.
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China's trade surplus reflects global division of labor and market rules. US/Europe adopt zero-sum thinking, double standards (subsidies, tech blockades) harming themselves. China actively expands imports (zero tariffs, CIIE) to promote balanced trade, calling for open global cooperation.
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The WTO has authorized the EU to impose countermeasures against the US over their olive trade dispute. The WTO arbitration ruled the EU can impose annual countermeasures worth up to $13.64 million. The US imposed tariffs on Spanish olives since 2018, which the WTO previously found violated rules. The US said the ruling won’t affect its anti-dumping duties, while a Chinese commerce researcher emphasized the WTO’s role in multilateral trade.
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GTAI forecasts Germany's 2025 exports up 0.6% to ~1.6T euros, imports up 4.4% to ~1.4T (surplus ~200B, lowest since 2012 except 2020-22). Exports to China down 10% (7th place), US down7.3%; imports from China up7%+. Industries face mixed challenges; Ifo warns trade crisis could last 10 years.
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