Overseas Updates
After year-long negotiations, India and the U.S. reached a temporary trade agreement framework. A formal deal is planned for March, with key factors being India’s Russian oil purchases and agricultural interests. India faces domestic opposition; the U.S. reduced tariffs on some Indian goods, while India cut tariffs on U.S. industrial/agricultural products.
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From Feb 7-9, 2026, the first meeting of 2026 APEC Business Advisory Council (APEC China Year's first business event) was held in Jakarta. Representatives exchanged on 4 key areas, proposed constructive suggestions, and China's connectivity working group was widely supported. Over 200 from 21 APEC economies attended.
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China will host the 2026 APEC, including the 33rd Leaders' Informal Meeting in Shenzhen in November. The theme is "Building an Asia Pacific Community and Promoting Common Prosperity" with priorities on openness, innovation, cooperation. Preparations are underway to boost regional and global economic cooperation.
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Brazil's 2025 trade surplus will hit $68.3B with historic exports ($348.7B) and imports ($280.4B). Though the US lifted 40% tariffs on some goods, 22% of exports to the US still face extra tariffs. Brazil responded with measures (Sovereign Brazil Plan, tax relief, market diversification) targeting emerging markets (India, Turkey) and increasing non-US exports to 72%.
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US unilaterally raised tariffs on South Korean goods from 15% to 25% (citing S. Korea's unapproved trade agreement). S. Korea expressed regret, noted unresolved negotiation differences, discussed countermeasures. The 2025 US-S.Korea trade framework faced S. Korean opposition; media/experts criticized US unilateralism.
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On February 2, US President Trump stated a US-India trade agreement was reached, with India to stop Russian oil purchases and US lowering tariffs. However, India hasn’t confirmed the oil stop. Analysts say India may not fully halt Russian oil imports due to strategic, economic, feasibility reasons, and the deal eases trade tensions but won’t heal deep US-India rifts.
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Russian President Putin stated Russia's 2025 GDP growth will be 1% (lower than 2023's 4.1%/2024's 4.3%), due to anti-inflation measures; 2025 inflation dropped to 5.6%, expected to hit 5% this year, with 3-year cumulative GDP growth 9.7%.
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US unilaterally raised tariffs on South Korean goods (15%→25%) citing unapproved trade agreement. South Korea expressed regret, noted unresolved differences, and will continue negotiations. The 2025 US-South Korea trade framework faced domestic opposition, with media/experts criticizing US unilateralism.
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The UK and Switzerland completed a new round of upgraded FTA negotiations to deepen economic and trade cooperation. The new agreement covers services, investment, digital trade, extends service mobility to 2029, and adds a "Trade and Sustainable Development" chapter. Switzerland is the UK's 10th largest trading partner, with bilateral trade at £49 billion by Sept 2025, services over 60%.
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The report states that if Canada removes domestic trade barriers, its real GDP can grow by nearly 7%
On local 27th, IMF report shows Canada's real GDP could grow nearly 7% long-term if eliminating internal trade barriers between 13 provinces/territories (equivalent to 210b CAD). Current barriers average 9% tariff (over 40% in some services). Canada should integrate domestic market amid global growth pressure; it previously reduced some barriers under US tariff threat. PM Carney commits to strengthening domestic development, enhancing resilience, diversifying trade, reducing US dependence.
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French economy forecast to grow 0.9% in 2025 (above prior 0.7%, below 2024's 1.1%), supported by household consumption, public expenditure and foreign trade. Eurozone/EU 2025 growth: 1.5%/1.6%; Germany 0.3%. French minister targets 1% growth in 2026.
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After US Trump announced raising tariffs on South Korea from 15% to 25%, South Korea sent a delegation for consultations. US has initiated tariff procedures, and negotiations (involving South Korea's US investment, needing a special act vs US demanding a timetable) have uncertainty. South Korea accelerates the act's legislation, but US may continue pressure depending on its progress.
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Indonesia's 2025 trade surplus hit $41.05 billion (up from 2024's $31.33 billion), with 68 consecutive months of surplus since May 2020. Driven by non-oil and gas exports, China is its top export destination, the US contributes most to the surplus. Electrical machinery imports grew 17.22% YoY, steel imports dropped 11.17%.
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On Jan 28 local time in Berlin, German officials noted US tariff hikes pressure global trade and hinder supply chains. Germany's exports to the US dropped 9.4% Jan-Nov 2025. US tariff threats and Ukraine conflict add uncertainty; German industry faces headwinds.
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On January 28, 2026, the China Council for Promotion of International Trade announced the 2025 November global economic and trade friction index (still high). The index was 101, with involved amount up 7.2% YoY and down 2% MoM. EU, US, South Korea top countries; EU leads in involved amount for 16 months. Electronics, pharmaceutical, chemical industries are key points.
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According to preliminary data from a US research institution on Jan 27, US consumer confidence index dropped from Dec's revised 94.2 to 84.5 (lowest since May 2014). Current condition and expectations indices fell; expectations index stayed below 80 (recession threshold) for 12 months. Economist Dana Peterson noted concerns drove the plunge.
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US President Trump announced on Jan 29 that the US will impose a 50% tariff on Canadian-made aircraft if Canada fails to resolve licensing issues for multiple Gulfstream business jets immediately.
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EU 27 member states passed regulations on Jan 26 to gradually ban Russian pipeline and LNG imports (full LNG ban early 2027, pipeline ban autumn 2027), with measures on supervision, energy diversification, emergency suspension, and member states to make supply diversification plans by March 1, 2026.
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The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds to the US threat to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian imports
US President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on all Canadian imports if Canada reaches a trade agreement with China. China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson advocated win-win cooperation, noting the China-Canada new strategic partnership is non-targeted, beneficial to both peoples and global peace/stability/prosperity.
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Leaders of CEMAC member states held a special summit in Brazzaville on Jan 22, calling for measures to enhance economic governance amid declining revenue, worsening deficits and debt pressure. They also urged promoting diversification and structural reforms. CEMAC, established in 1999 with 6 members, uses Central African Franc.
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