The 2025 EU-US trade agreement is deadlocked in EU approval (Parliament demands safeguards). No breakthrough in May 6 trilateral talks; next round May 19. Trump threatens higher tariffs if EU doesn’t comply by July 4. Cyprus (EU presidency) seeks balanced outcome for EU firms.

Malaysian MITI terminated the 4-year CBU EV exemption (Dec 31,2025). From July 1,2026, new CBU EVs need ≥180kW power and CIF ≥200k ringgit. Industry expects retail prices to climb above 300k ringgit. Policy shifts to promote local EV manufacturing.

Danish shipping giant Maersk stated in its May 7 financial report that geopolitics dominates macroeconomics, trade and logistics, with the Middle East conflict exacerbating global trade/logistics uncertainty. Its Q1 report notes 2026 global container demand outlook is highly uncertain; Gulf energy price hikes/trade restrictions may pose downside risks. Hormuz Strait blockage reshapes supply chains; Middle East supplies fertilizers/minerals/aluminum, so parties need to enhance supply chain resilience.

US President Trump threatens higher tariffs on EU products if the EU fails to fulfill the 2025 bilateral trade agreement by July 4. He cited a "good conversation" with von der Leyen, EU's promise to zero tariffs on US exports. Earlier, he threatened to raise EU car tariffs; EU delayed approval over tensions, Parliament supported conditional implementation, Commission urged US action.

After launching a 301 investigation on 16 economies (including China, Japan, S. Korea) over "overcapacity" in March, the US held a hearing on May 5. China's chamber, S. Korea, and some US groups demand termination, while others urge tariffs; US Supreme Court ruled earlier tariff policies illegal.

The European Commission's trade commissioner Malos Shevchovich urged the US to quickly restore last year's EU-US trade agreement tariff arrangements, meeting US Trade Representative Greer in Paris. The US Supreme Court ruled Trump's prior tariffs illegal; Trump later imposed 15% tariffs and threatened 25% on EU cars. The EU plans to lift US industrial product tariffs but may not do so before June.

On April 28, the US Treasury's OFAC prohibited US individuals/entities from paying Iran's Strait of Hormuz security toll, noting non-US parties face sanction risks; it also added 17 foreigners and 18 foreign entities to Iran-related sanctions lists.

Iran suspended exports of some steel products (billets, plates) until May 30 (may extend) after US-Israel attacks on two steel plants (Isfahan, Khuzestan). It also banned some chemical/petrochemical/polymer exports due to war.

Turkiye's Finance Minister Simshek announced on April 27 that the government has designated 2026 as the reform year, planning structural reforms to promote goods/services exports, attract capital repatriation, and develop the Istanbul Financial Center, including tax incentives for trade and high-value services.

Canadian PM Carney states Canada-US USMCA update negotiations may take long; Canada insists on reciprocity, rejects US unilateral conditions/extra concessions. US insists on separate agreement-tariff handling, Canada advocates overall promotion. US has multiple demands, Canada sets red lines (no dairy supply management cancellation, etc.). US won't return to zero tariffs.

The Trump administration's "equivalent tariffs" aimed to revive US manufacturing, but investment commitments are inflated (old wine in new bottles, exaggerated, long cycles). US manufacturing faces declining employment, shrinking output, and constraints from infrastructure, policy uncertainty, etc., making revival distant.

Canadian PM Carney’s April 19th video speech evaluates Canada-US relations: previous US ties advantages are now disadvantages due to US tariffs (Great Depression-era levels on auto, steel, timber). He calls for trade diversification (20 new agreements) and measures to reduce single-market dependence, as US tariffs since Trump’s 2025 term disrupted supply chains.

On April 14, the IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook report, lowering the 2026 global economic growth forecast to 3.1% (down 0.2pp) mainly due to the Middle East conflict (partially offset by strong data and tariff cuts). It also noted rising inflation, downward revisions for regions like the US, Eurozone and emerging markets, and suggested prioritizing price stability and global cooperation.

The WTO's 2026 Global Trade Outlook report shows 2026 global goods (1.9%) and services (4.8%) trade growth lower than 2025 due to geopolitical tensions, high oil prices, and policy uncertainty. AI-related product trade remains active, driving growth, while MFN treatment proportion declines.

Since the US Supreme Court ruled federal tariffs illegal, the US government imposed new tariffs (15% global, "Liberation Day" 2025) harming consumers, businesses, and manufacturing. 64% Americans are dissatisfied; 98k manufacturing jobs lost in a year. Policies failed to meet goals, causing chaos and global opposition.

On April 2, Trump signed Section 232 documents: imposing tariffs on some imported patented drugs/pharmaceutical ingredients (100% for some, 15% for certain regions, UK lower; no generics tariffs temporarily) and adjusting steel/aluminum/copper derivatives tariffs starting April 6. Measures aim to strengthen US domestic industries and safeguard national/economic security, with exemptions for qualifying pharma companies.

On April 2, the White House announced US President Trump signed a document imposing 100% tariffs on imported patented drugs and pharmaceutical ingredients under Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act, with exemption pathways to force pharmaceutical companies to agree on drug prices and industry return.

US Commerce Department released data on April 2 showing US trade deficit in goods and services was $57.3B in February, up 4.9% MoM due to import growth exceeding export growth; exports $314.8B (up 4.2%), imports $372.1B (up 4.3%); commodity exports rose $11.5B driven by non-monetary gold and natural gas.

In March, India revised FDI rules to relax Chinese investment restrictions in electronics and solar cells (10%+ share via automatic approval), its first systematic relaxation since 2020. Aimed at easing capital shortages and supply chain gaps amid economic slowdown and geopolitical pressure, it reflects India’s balanced strategy, though policy risks remain for Chinese investors.

The OECD released its latest economic outlook, noting the US-Israel-Iran conflict tests global economic resilience. It predicts energy prices may fall mid-2026 if chaos eases, with 2026 global GDP growth at 2.9% and 2027 at 3.0% (slight 0.1pp drop). It also forecasts major economies' growth, prolonged inflation from energy hikes, and impacts if prices soar further. The outlook is uncertain with risks (Hormuz disruption) and upsides (tech investment). Governments are called to improve energy efficiency and address debt sustainability.