On the first anniversary of the tariff policy, the US economy has suffered multiple setbacks (in-depth observation)
Since the US Supreme Court ruled that the federal government's imposition of tariffs on products from multiple countries under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was illegal, the struggle between US importers and the government over tax refunds has continued. The US government has announced a 15% tariff on most imported products worldwide under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, and is accelerating new trade investigations to seek new tariff measures.
According to a recent article published by the Center for American Progress, since the US government announced the imposition of the so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2, 2025, a year has passed. The chaotic tariff measures and endless tariff threats of the US government have not only failed to achieve their established goals, but have also harmed the interests of American consumers, businesses, and trading partners, brought huge uncertainty to the US economy, damaged the international image of the United States, and led to widespread opposition to US tariff policies worldwide.
Over 60% of American citizens express dissatisfaction with tariff policies
Numerous research findings indicate that high tariffs cause far more harm to the US economy than benefits. Many ordinary people in the United States have truly felt the impact of rising prices, and their dissatisfaction with the imposition of tariffs is increasing day by day. A recent study released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that approximately 90% of the additional costs incurred by the US government's tariffs in 2025 will be borne by American consumers and businesses. A report from the Kiel Institute for World Economy in Germany states that the US government's imposition of tariffs is actually a consumption tax on imported goods, with 96% of the tariffs borne by US importers and consumers, resulting in a significant reduction in the types and quantities of goods that consumers can choose from.
According to a recent survey conducted jointly by ABC, The Washington Post, and Ipsos, 64% of the American public expressed dissatisfaction with the government's handling of tariff issues. According to a survey released by Harris Poll in March, about 70% of the public stated that tariff policies have resulted in them having to pay higher consumption costs; 72% of Americans believe that tariff policies have a negative impact; 67% of Americans say that tariff policies are not the right solution to boost the economy.
The impact of tariff policies on many small and medium-sized enterprises in the United States is particularly evident. Kimberly Brandon, who runs a small renovation company with her husband in Florida, said that tariffs have led to an increase in the cost of various building materials and supplies used in the renovation. "Our company is too small to absorb the cost increase caused by tariffs, so we have to raise our prices," Brandon said. "As prices rise, many customers give up their renovation plans, and our customer base and potential orders decrease. We have to lay off most of our employees. I was already semi retired, but now I have to return to the company to work full-time
Philip Crowley of California runs a small business that mainly imports laser equipment. Last year, our company paid tens of thousands of dollars in tariffs. The tariffs caused customers to delay purchases, slowed down the company's business, and forced us to lower salaries, "Crowley said." As business owners, our income has decreased and we have also postponed plans to recruit new employees
Reduce nearly 100000 manufacturing jobs in one year
One goal of the US government's proposed tariff policy is to bring manufacturing back, stating that this will force more factories to settle in the US and increase fiscal revenue. However, reality is far from ideal. According to the Wall Street Journal, the US manufacturing industry has further shrunk and the number of employees continues to decrease due to the drag of tariff policies. Official data shows that in the eight months following the government's announcement of the so-called "Liberation Day" tariff plan, domestic manufacturers in the United States have been laying off employees every month, exacerbating the shrinking trend of over 200000 jobs disappearing since 2023. For decades, the outward migration of American manufacturing companies and the hollowing out of the manufacturing industry have been important reasons for the continuous decline of the manufacturing industry. At the same time, due to the impact of tariff policies, many companies in the industry have high costs of purchasing raw materials from overseas, which has forced them to raise prices or hindered their production and supply chain networks.
Jay Allen, the head of Allen Engineering Company in Arkansas, USA, which mainly produces concrete laying and finishing equipment, said that due to the impact of tariff policies, the company will be in a loss making state in 2025, and the number of employees has dropped from a peak of 205 to 140. "The unintended consequences of tariff policies are harming the manufacturing industry in the United States, and the working class is being squeezed as a result. Howard Waltz, the head of Insteel Industries in North Carolina, said that due to tariff policies, the company is finding it increasingly difficult to obtain the required metals from American suppliers. Due to the shortage of domestic raw materials, our company's performance growth may be affected
Anne Kruger, an American economist and former Chief Economist of the World Bank, pointed out that tariff policies have brought chaos and uncertainty. American manufacturers cannot predict how much import competition they will face and the prices of competing goods. Companies that rely on imports do not know how much they will ultimately pay for it, and export-oriented companies cannot measure how much higher input costs will keep them competitive. Many exporters are facing higher production costs and retaliatory tariffs from other countries, which may lead to a reduction in their global business. Many companies are unable to determine which tariff rates truly apply to themselves. The Associated Press reported that in the past 12 months, the number of manufacturing jobs in the United States has decreased by 98000. The American companies currently bearing the cost of tariffs have sued the government over tax refunds, with claims exceeding $130 billion.
Greatly increasing the uncertainty of corporate investment
The town of Lewiston in northern New York State is located near the US Canada border. In the past, many Canadians often crossed the border to the United States to purchase essential goods such as milk, bread, and gasoline due to differences in exchange rates and sales taxes. Now everything has changed. Many people are boycotting American goods due to tariff issues and refusing to spend money on border towns like Lewiston, causing a decline in business in many American border towns. Aimee Rockren, the 41 year old owner of a bakery in Lewiston, complained, "All the stores on our street have seen a significant decline in sales. My bakery's revenue has dropped by 30%, and I have to cut expenses for both the store and my family. Life is really tough
A recent study by the Brookings Institution, conducted by economists Pablo Fajelbaum from the University of California, Los Angeles and Amit Candelaar from Yale University, found that the positive effects of US tariff policies on the US economy are minimal, with no evidence to suggest that tariff policies have increased US manufacturing jobs or reduced the overall US trade deficit. Over the past year, the large-scale imposition of tariffs has made it more difficult to carry out competitive production in the United States, especially in industries that rely on imported components and raw materials.
Bernd Lang, Chairman of the International Trade Committee of the European Parliament, stated that the US government has created a 'pure tariff chaos'. In the current situation, the EU and other US trading partners are facing a series of unresolved issues and increasing uncertainty. Joseph Steinberg, an economist at the University of Toronto in Canada, said that the uncertainty of US trade policy makes companies hesitant to expand their investments. The US manufacturing industry has not recovered, and investment in factories has even declined.
The article from the Center for American Progress argues that US tariff policies have not achieved any of their set goals, but have instead shown tremendous destructive power at an astonishingly high cost. The tariff policy has suffered three failures, namely a new high in the goods trade deficit, sustained contraction of the manufacturing industry, and failure to bring prosperity to the American working class. In the medium to long term, the international status and overseas strategic interests of the United States will be damaged. The article questions what benefits the US government's tariff policy has produced so far, apart from making American consumers bear higher prices, causing blue collar jobs to be lost, undermining overseas trust, and a surge in small business bankruptcies? The answer is: almost none.