Overseas Updates
On Dec 22, 2025, the German Economic Research Institute reported Germany's exports to the US dropped nearly 8% YoY in Jan-Sep 2025 due to US tariffs, with auto, chemical and machinery (pillar industries) accounting for 70% of the decline. Exports fell below 2022 levels. Suggestions include reducing US dependence, developing new markets like South America, India and Indonesia, and enhancing domestic industrial competitiveness.
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In 2025, the EU economy demonstrates resilience with 1.4% moderate growth, stable inflation near the ECB's target, but faces weak growth, trade frictions, energy transition challenges, and regional disparities, requiring deeper reforms to unlock potential.
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Japan plans to cancel the consumption tax exemption for cross-border e-commerce goods under 10,000 yen in FY2026, affecting Chinese platforms like Temu and Xiyin and pushing up Japanese prices. Global countries (US, EU) are tightening similar policies; China's cross-border e-commerce needs adjustments but its advantage remains.
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The Dutch Central Bank released its 2025 autumn economic forecast on Dec 19, showing 2025 growth at 1.7% (above expectation), 2026-2027 at 1.2% & 1.1%. Trade and government spending drive growth, while corporate investment faces challenges; fiscal policy has limited expansion room.
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China's trade surplus reflects global division of labor and market rules. US/Europe adopt zero-sum thinking, double standards (subsidies, tech blockades) harming themselves. China actively expands imports (zero tariffs, CIIE) to promote balanced trade, calling for open global cooperation.
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The WTO has authorized the EU to impose countermeasures against the US over their olive trade dispute. The WTO arbitration ruled the EU can impose annual countermeasures worth up to $13.64 million. The US imposed tariffs on Spanish olives since 2018, which the WTO previously found violated rules. The US said the ruling won’t affect its anti-dumping duties, while a Chinese commerce researcher emphasized the WTO’s role in multilateral trade.
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GTAI forecasts Germany's 2025 exports up 0.6% to ~1.6T euros, imports up 4.4% to ~1.4T (surplus ~200B, lowest since 2012 except 2020-22). Exports to China down 10% (7th place), US down7.3%; imports from China up7%+. Industries face mixed challenges; Ifo warns trade crisis could last 10 years.
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南非贸易部长Parks Tao称南非受益于贸易协定,2024外贸额1997亿美元,2025年贸易顺差持续;中国为最大贸易伙伴,南非推进AfCFTA建设,应对全球贸易变化,农业出口增长,正与美谈判AGOA后续。
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Reference News Network reported the surge in developed countries' standards harms developing countries' trade. The World Bank notes standards are crucial "intangible infrastructure" but mainly set by powerful nations; developing countries have low participation (e.g., <1/3 ISO seats) and high compliance costs, becoming trade barriers. It recommends adapting standards to development stages and active international organization participation.
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On Dec 16, 2025, US ITC initiated 337 investigation (337-TA-1464) into evaporator devices, cartridges & components. Plaintiffs JUUL Labs & VMR Products claimed patent infringement, seeking exclusion order/injunction. Defendants are Glas Inc & LLC. ITC will set end date within 45 days; relief orders take effect on issuance, final on 60th day unless USTR vetoes.
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On Dec 17, 2025, US ITC initiated 337-TA-1466 investigation on certain antibody drug conjugates. Applicants are AbbVie etc., defendants include Profound Bio etc. ITC will decide investigation end date within 45 days.
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On Dec 16, 2025, US ITC initiated 337-TA-1465 investigation into certain semiconductor devices/computing products over patent infringement claims by Adeia Inc. Defendants include AMD, Lenovo entities, Super Micro. ITC will set investigation end date within 45 days of Nov 17, 2025 filing.
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On December 17, 2025, US ITC initiated 337 investigation (337-TA-1467) into low profile microwave hood combination products. Filed by Whirlpool on Nov 18, 2025, claiming patent infringement. Defendants include Samsung, LG, Midea, Haier etc. ITC will set end date within 45 days of filing.
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On December 16, 2025, Active Wireless Technologies LLC filed a Section 337 application with the U.S. ITC, alleging certain wireless communication devices/components violated Section 337, listing multiple companies as defendants.
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On Dec 16, 2025, US ITC voted for the 4th anti-dumping sunset review of Russian silicon metal imports, determining lifting measures may cause continued/recurred substantial damage to US domestic industry, so current measures remain effective. It also notes the 2002 investigation, 2003 duty imposition, 3 prior extensions, 2025 May investigation launch and Aug Commerce final ruling.
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On December 17, 2025, Turkiye's Ministry of Trade issued Announcement 2025/42 to initiate an anti-dumping investigation against Egyptian-origin drying agents. The dumping investigation period is July 1, 2024-June 30, 2025, injury period Jan 1, 2022-June 30, 2025. The product's tax number is 3211.00.00.00.00, effective from publication.
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On December 15, 2025, US ITC made a positive final ruling on anti-dumping & countervailing duty industry damage for thermoformed molded fiber products from China & Vietnam, finding substantial harm to US industry. US DOC will issue duty orders; products under HTS codes 4823.70.0020/40. The case was initiated in Oct 2024, with DOC's final ruling in Sep 2025.
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Brazil's Foreign Trade Secretariat issued Announcement No.96/2025 (Dec 5,2025) extending the anti-dumping investigation deadline on glass fibers from China/Egypt to 18 months. Earlier (Aug 6,2025), Announcement No.60/2025 initiated the probe per Owens Corning's application, covering E/E-CR roving fibers (≥100g/km, tax 7019.12.90).
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On Dec 12, 2025, Brazil's Foreign Trade Secretariat extended the anti-dumping sunset review deadline for bicycle tires from China, India, Vietnam to 12 months, with current measures remaining in effect. It also includes past investigations, duty impositions and prior reviews.
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On Dec 11, 2025, India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry terminated its anti-dumping probe into para nitrotoluene (PNT) from the EU, following the applicant's withdrawal. The probe was initiated on June 16, 2025 by Aarti Industries with specified investigation periods.
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