Overseas Updates
Southeast Asian Q3 2025 GDP data: Most major economies (Thailand, Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia) slowed due to weak manufacturing, sluggish consumption, US tariffs. Exceptions: Malaysia (higher via mining) and Vietnam (strong manufacturing/construction/services). Thailand hit 4-year low; Singapore's biomedical output declined; Indonesia used stimulus; Philippines' growth slowed. Vietnam faces potential US tariff impact.
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US Department of Commerce released August trade data showing a $59.6B goods/services deficit (down 18.6B month-on-month), exports slight up 0.1% to $280.8B, imports down 5.1% to $340.4B, driven by reduced goods deficit and lower raw material/consumer goods imports.
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On November 19, UN ECLAC released its 2025 Latin America trade report, analyzing US tariff impacts (region’s avg tariff 10% post-2025 Feb policies) and recommending regional integration/trade diversification with partners like China (expected 7% export growth to China in 2025).
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Data from German Federal Statistical Office shows Germany-China trade volume reached 185.9 bln euros (Jan-Sep 2025), up 0.6% YoY, making China Germany's largest trading partner again. Germany's imports from China rose 8.5% (fastest in electrical equipment, clothing, machinery), exports to China fell 12.3%. Germany-US trade was 184.7 bln euros (down 3.9% YoY). Weak global demand etc affect Germany's foreign trade. China was largest partner 2016-2023, US in 2024.
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Xinhua (Nov 19, 2025) reported Germany's natural gas storage rate reached only 75% at the start of this heating season, below the expected 81% and prior years' levels (e.g., 98% in early Nov 2024). The association forecasts mild weather keeps it above 30% by Feb 2026, but extreme cold may exhaust inventory by mid-Jan 2026. Sebastian Heinemann urged government measures. Germany faces tight gas supply and high prices post-reduced Russian gas dependence.
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On November 5, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce issued Announcement No.71 of 2025. Based on trade environment changes, the Tariff Commission of the State Council decided to stop applying the current anti-dumping duty rate on US-origin cut-off wavelength shifted single-mode fibers from November 10, 2025.
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On November 17, the European Commission released its 2025 autumn economic outlook, predicting EU/euro area GDP growth in 2025-2026 (slightly lower than previous forecasts), continuous inflation decline, rising fiscal deficit and debt; noting high trade barriers impact the economy, with the EC economic commissioner suggesting releasing internal growth potential.
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Preliminary stats from Japan's Cabinet Office on Nov 17 show Japan's Q3 2025 real GDP fell 1.8% annually (0.4% q/q), negative growth since Q1 2024. US tariffs hit exports (down 1.2% q/q), dragging foreign demand contribution to -0.2pp. Domestic demand contribution was also -0.2pp (residential investment down 9.4%). Japan cut 2025 fiscal year growth forecast to 0.7% from 1.2% due to US tariffs and price hikes.
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US ITC’s 337 investigation (337-TA-1430) on urine splash guards/components involves Chinese defendants; rulings include infringement findings, proposed exclusion/prohibition orders, and case terminations via settlement; public comments solicited by Dec 12, 2025, covering dates from Dec 2024 to Nov 2025.
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On November 17, 2025, adeia-related companies filed an application with USITC under Section 337, claiming certain semiconductor devices and related products violated Section 337, with AMD, Lenovo and other entities as defendants.
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On November 17, 2025, the U.S. ITC issued a final ruling on 337-TA-1452 (certain ink cartridges/components II): not reviewing the September 15 preliminary ruling. Initiated by Epson (U.S./Japan) in May 2025 over patent infringement, the case involves Chinese/Hong Kong/US defendants.
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Hungarian FM Szijjardo Peter announced on Nov 16 that visa facilitation for Chinese business people will be extended one year, responding to China's extension of visa-free policy for Hungary until Dec 31, 2026, to boost bilateral economic, educational and tourism exchanges.
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On Nov 14, US President Trump signed an order exempting over 200 products (including agricultural goods) from "equivalent tariffs" starting Nov 13. Driven by rising consumer prices and election results, the move eases cost pressures but faces Democratic criticism and Supreme Court review. The US Chamber of Commerce welcomed it.
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On Nov 12, 2025, India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry issued a final positive ruling on the first anti-dumping sunset review of TDI (80:20 isomer ratio) from EU and Saudi Arabia, recommending 5-year continued anti-dumping duties (specific rates for producers). The case covers customs code 29291020; background includes 2020 investigation initiation, 2021 final ruling, and 2024 sunset review initiation.
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On Nov 12, 2025, India’s Revenue Dept issued Notice 32/2025 Customs (ADD), accepting the Aug 13, 2025 positive anti-dumping final ruling on Vietnam-origin alloy/non-alloy hot-rolled steel plates (thickness ≤25mm, width ≤2100mm, excluding stainless steel, under codes 7208-7226). It imposes 5-year duties: 0 for Hoa Phat Dung Quat Steel JSC, 121.55 USD/ton for others, effective on gazette publication. The probe started in Aug 2024 via ISA’s application.
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US tariff policies are impacting European high-end manufacturing (luxury goods, cars, watches), with companies like LVMH, Gucci, Porsche and Swatch seeing revenue/profit drops. US consumer confidence is suppressed, and the industry faces growing uncertainty.
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The German Economic Expert Committee (Five Wise Men) lowered 2026 Germany GDP growth forecast to 0.9% (from spring's 1.0% and govt's 1.3%), citing global changes, domestic adjustments etc. It calls for efficient use of 500B euro SVIK fund, with inheritance tax reform disputes.
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On November 9, 2025, Peru issued a positive final ruling on the third sunset review of anti-dumping on US-origin biodiesel (including B100 and blends over 50% biodiesel), deciding to maintain current anti-dumping duties. The measures take effect June 26, 2025 for five years. Peru first initiated the investigation in 2009, with two prior sunset reviews (2016, 2020) and the third initiated in Feb 2025. The product's tax number is 3826.00.00.00.
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On November 10, 2025, Mexico's Ministry of Economy issued a final negative anti-dumping review ruling on I-shaped/H-shaped steel beams (vigas de acero tipo I y H) from Spanish company AMOB, deciding not to impose anti-dumping duties. The measures take effect the day after announcement. Involved TIGIE tax numbers: 7216.32.99, 7216.33.01. Background includes prior investigations (2021 initiation, 2023 positive ruling, 2024 review initiation, 2025 preliminary ruling).
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On Nov 10, 2025, Mexico's Ministry of Economy issued a final negative anti-dumping period review ruling on Spanish AMOB's I/H steel beams, deciding no anti-dumping duties. Involved TIGIE tax numbers: 7216.32.99, 7216.33.01. Measures take effect the next day.
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