The trade agreement is "quite flexible" and faces uncertainty in the future, with the United States and four Southeast Asian countries "finalizing" tariffs
On the 26th, during his visit to Malaysia to attend the 47th ASEAN Summit, US President Trump signed a series of trade and key mineral agreements covering tariff policies, supply chain diversification, labor protection, and environmental cooperation with Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Southeast Asian media believe that these agreements are more lenient and stable than the previously claimed plans by the United States. However, Bloomberg quoted experts as analyzing that the agreement signed this time is "quite flexible" and has limitations in terms of legal binding force, which may face considerable uncertainty in the future.
The White House joint statement shows that the United States has signed reciprocal trade agreements with the aforementioned four countries, committing to jointly address tariff and non-tariff barriers. The agreement stipulates that the United States will maintain a 19% tariff rate on exports to Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia, as well as a 20% tariff rate on exports to Vietnam, consistent with the "equivalent tariff" rates previously set by the United States for these Southeast Asian countries.
The United States has granted exemptions to these Southeast Asian countries' goods in some areas. The Malaysian newspaper The Star reported that the United States has exempted 1711 tariff items from Malaysia, with a total export value of approximately 5.2 billion US dollars, accounting for 12% of Malaysia's total exports to the United States.
Meanwhile, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal, Malaysia and Cambodia have been asked to reduce tariffs and regulatory requirements on US cars and agricultural products, and import more US goods including Boeing planes in exchange for certain exemptions from US "equivalent tariffs". Malaysia will also invest $70 billion in the United States over the next 10 years; In the framework agreement signed between the United States, Vietnam, and Thailand, the two countries agreed to reduce import tariffs on almost all American goods. The statement released by the US government shows that the two countries have also agreed to purchase Boeing aircraft and US agricultural products.
In key mineral fields, the United States has signed cooperation agreements with Malaysia and Thailand. The Star reported that both sides stated in a joint statement that Malaysia has committed not to ban the export of key minerals to the United States or implement quotas, but did not specify whether this commitment applies to raw materials or processed products. The agreement signed with Thailand also aims to promote the export of key minerals to the United States.
Southeast Asian politicians have expressed caution regarding the agreement reached with the United States. The Star newspaper quoted Malaysia's Minister of Investment, Trade and Industry, Zafreul, as saying, "Our previous commitments to the United States have not changed. In fact, the access conditions given by the United States are better than before." He also emphasized that the two countries will not sign any agreements that affect national sovereignty.
Bloomberg commented that the agreement announced this time has limitations in terms of legal binding force. Peter Mumford, Southeast Asia director of Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm, pointed out that "these are not legally binding agreements, they are all quite flexible." He said, "This (agreement) is a step in the right direction, but there is still considerable uncertainty.
The New York Times reported that beyond the striking diplomatic scenes, the fundamental policy direction of the United States towards its allies in the Indo Pacific region has largely remained unchanged. According to reports, most of the agreements signed with the aforementioned Southeast Asian countries are related to competition with China, including export controls, economic sanctions, and access to key mineral resources, and attempts to gain more leverage from them.
On the 26th, the US "Political News Network" reported that overall, China remains the largest trading partner of ASEAN. In 2024, the total two-way trade between China and ASEAN reached 982.3 billion US dollars. The United States is forcing these countries to face difficult choices.
Ge Hongliang, Vice Dean of the ASEAN College at Guangxi University for Nationalities, told Global Times reporters on the 27th that China's economic and trade cooperation with Southeast Asian countries is very deep, and the industrial chain is closely integrated. They are well aware of the benefits and drawbacks of decoupling and breaking links, and are not willing to take sides between China and the United States, as can be seen from Southeast Asian countries deliberately keeping a low profile in negotiating "equivalent tariffs" with the United States. Ge Hongliang added that it should be emphasized that unilateralism is not conducive to the economies of Southeast Asian countries.