Overseas Updates
Russian President Putin stated Russia's 2025 GDP growth will be 1% (lower than 2023's 4.1%/2024's 4.3%), due to anti-inflation measures; 2025 inflation dropped to 5.6%, expected to hit 5% this year, with 3-year cumulative GDP growth 9.7%.
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US unilaterally raised tariffs on South Korean goods (15%→25%) citing unapproved trade agreement. South Korea expressed regret, noted unresolved differences, and will continue negotiations. The 2025 US-South Korea trade framework faced domestic opposition, with media/experts criticizing US unilateralism.
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The UK and Switzerland completed a new round of upgraded FTA negotiations to deepen economic and trade cooperation. The new agreement covers services, investment, digital trade, extends service mobility to 2029, and adds a "Trade and Sustainable Development" chapter. Switzerland is the UK's 10th largest trading partner, with bilateral trade at £49 billion by Sept 2025, services over 60%.
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On local 27th, IMF report shows Canada's real GDP could grow nearly 7% long-term if eliminating internal trade barriers between 13 provinces/territories (equivalent to 210b CAD). Current barriers average 9% tariff (over 40% in some services). Canada should integrate domestic market amid global growth pressure; it previously reduced some barriers under US tariff threat. PM Carney commits to strengthening domestic development, enhancing resilience, diversifying trade, reducing US dependence.
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French economy forecast to grow 0.9% in 2025 (above prior 0.7%, below 2024's 1.1%), supported by household consumption, public expenditure and foreign trade. Eurozone/EU 2025 growth: 1.5%/1.6%; Germany 0.3%. French minister targets 1% growth in 2026.
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After US Trump announced raising tariffs on South Korea from 15% to 25%, South Korea sent a delegation for consultations. US has initiated tariff procedures, and negotiations (involving South Korea's US investment, needing a special act vs US demanding a timetable) have uncertainty. South Korea accelerates the act's legislation, but US may continue pressure depending on its progress.
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Indonesia's 2025 trade surplus hit $41.05 billion (up from 2024's $31.33 billion), with 68 consecutive months of surplus since May 2020. Driven by non-oil and gas exports, China is its top export destination, the US contributes most to the surplus. Electrical machinery imports grew 17.22% YoY, steel imports dropped 11.17%.
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On Jan 28 local time in Berlin, German officials noted US tariff hikes pressure global trade and hinder supply chains. Germany's exports to the US dropped 9.4% Jan-Nov 2025. US tariff threats and Ukraine conflict add uncertainty; German industry faces headwinds.
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On January 28, 2026, the China Council for Promotion of International Trade announced the 2025 November global economic and trade friction index (still high). The index was 101, with involved amount up 7.2% YoY and down 2% MoM. EU, US, South Korea top countries; EU leads in involved amount for 16 months. Electronics, pharmaceutical, chemical industries are key points.
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According to preliminary data from a US research institution on Jan 27, US consumer confidence index dropped from Dec's revised 94.2 to 84.5 (lowest since May 2014). Current condition and expectations indices fell; expectations index stayed below 80 (recession threshold) for 12 months. Economist Dana Peterson noted concerns drove the plunge.
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US President Trump announced on Jan 29 that the US will impose a 50% tariff on Canadian-made aircraft if Canada fails to resolve licensing issues for multiple Gulfstream business jets immediately.
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EU 27 member states passed regulations on Jan 26 to gradually ban Russian pipeline and LNG imports (full LNG ban early 2027, pipeline ban autumn 2027), with measures on supervision, energy diversification, emergency suspension, and member states to make supply diversification plans by March 1, 2026.
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US President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on all Canadian imports if Canada reaches a trade agreement with China. China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson advocated win-win cooperation, noting the China-Canada new strategic partnership is non-targeted, beneficial to both peoples and global peace/stability/prosperity.
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Leaders of CEMAC member states held a special summit in Brazzaville on Jan 22, calling for measures to enhance economic governance amid declining revenue, worsening deficits and debt pressure. They also urged promoting diversification and structural reforms. CEMAC, established in 1999 with 6 members, uses Central African Franc.
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The World Economic Forum's 2026 Annual Meeting concluded in Davos. Attendees noted the global economy is at a critical transition, with AI, green transformation as future engines. Geopolitical risks top 2026 global risks; dialogue and cooperation are needed for inclusive growth, and tech governance to address new risks.
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After Trump threatens 100% tariffs on Canadian goods, Canadian PM Carney calls on people to buy domestic, reviews recent visits/meetings, and works to diversify trade/attract investment for Canada.
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According to Xinhua, Trump said US will impose 100% tariffs on Canadian imports if Canada reaches a trade deal with China. China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded on 26th, advocating win-win cooperation, noting Sino-Canada new strategic partnership is equal, inclusive, not targeting third parties, beneficial to both peoples and world peace.
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在2026达沃斯世界经济论坛上,WTO总干事指出全球贸易受地缘冲突影响但仍有韧性(72%贸易在WTO框架内);2025货物贸易增长2.4%(AI驱动),2026预计0.5%(谨慎),服务贸易更稳健;成员对WTO改革有共识,聚焦决策机制、发展与公平竞争。
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The Ministry of Commerce reports 2025 Chinese outbound investment (under Belt and Road) was healthy: 50k+ overseas enterprises, $174.38b ODI (up 7.1%), 2m annual jobs. 2026 (15th Five-Year Plan start) will boost foreign investment management, trade-investment integration, and emerging field cooperation.
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Bloomberg reported Latin American economies' exports strengthened amid US tariff policies, with Argentina, Brazil, Chile's 2025 exports reaching/approaching historical highs. Mexico/Peru may also hit temporary highs. Exporters benefit from better logistics, emerging markets, and deepening trade with China, which increased procurement of commodities like Brazil's frozen beef and Peru's gold/copper.
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