Report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development: Global trade is expected to surpass $35 trillion for the first time in 2025

Geneva, December 9 (Xinhua) -- The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released its latest report on December 9, stating that despite factors such as geopolitical tensions, uneven global demand, and rising trade costs, global trade will continue to grow in the second half of 2025, and the annual trade volume is expected to exceed $35 trillion for the first time.

The report shows that global trade in the third quarter of 2025 increased by 2.5% compared to the previous quarter, with goods trade growing by nearly 2% and services trade growing by 4%. It is expected that global trade growth will continue in the fourth quarter of this year, but the growth rate will slow down. The total trade volume for the whole year is expected to increase by about 7% compared to last year, with goods trade expected to grow by $1.5 trillion and services trade expected to grow by $750 billion.

The report points out that in the past year, East Asia has had the strongest export growth, with a growth rate of 9%, including a 10% increase in intra regional trade. The growth of South South trade is about 8%, reflecting the increasingly close economic ties between developing economies. Among various economies, China and South Korea have performed outstandingly in East Asia, while Brazil and South Africa are the main growth engines in South America and Africa, respectively. Meanwhile, strong growth in service exports from India and China highlights the increasingly important role of emerging economies in global trade.

The report also points out that in 2025, the trend of "friendly shore outsourcing" and "nearshore outsourcing" will strengthen again, and trade will shift towards partners with similar political positions or geographical locations. The global trade pattern is undergoing a reshaping.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development predicts that global trade growth will tend to slow down in 2026 due to a slowdown in global economic activity, rising debt, rising trade costs, and ongoing uncertainty.