Chi Fulin: Under the new geopolitical changes, the importance of RCEP is becoming increasingly prominent
Currently, the geopolitical landscape is undergoing profound adjustments, the global trade and investment order is facing challenges, and the stability of the supply chain and industrial chain is facing severe challenges. In this context, as the world's largest and most promising free trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has become a key lever for addressing geopolitical challenges and promoting regional win-win outcomes. It is worth clarifying its role positioning, development opportunities, and upgrading direction in regional economic cooperation one by one.
Firstly, with the new changes in the geopolitical landscape, the role of RCEP has become greater, not smaller.
The world has entered a new period of turbulence and change, and the role of RCEP as a stabilizer for free trade has increased. RCEP is guided by openness, inclusiveness, inclusiveness, balance, and win-win, adhering to the basic concept of free trade, and providing important certainty and stability for the Asia Pacific region and even the global economy. Global trade monitoring data shows that from 2023 to 2025, the trade volume within the RCEP region will steadily increase from 5.67 trillion US dollars to 6.09 trillion US dollars.
The risk of global supply chain disruption is increasing, and the collaborative integration function of RCEP industrial chain is enhanced. For example, in the energy sector, most RCEP members have a high degree of external dependence on energy, with some highly dependent on imports from the Middle East. RCEP needs to optimize institutional arrangements such as tariff reductions, accumulation of origin, and facilitation of customs clearance through mutual economic and trade cooperation within the region, accelerate the formation of a closer regional economic cooperation system, and enhance the resilience of energy and other industrial and supply chains.
The global investment landscape has undergone profound adjustments, and the role of RCEP in attracting investment has increased. By 2025, RCEP will attract approximately 30% -32% of global foreign investment. Against the backdrop of tightened global market access, RCEP has the conditions to promote greater openness in areas such as customs procedures, inspection and quarantine, cross-border investment, and the movement of business personnel, attracting international capital severely impacted by geopolitics, especially Middle Eastern capital. It is expected that in the coming years, the scale of foreign investment attracted by RCEP will further expand.
Secondly, with the increasing uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, the opportunities for RCEP development have increased, not decreased.
The scale of trade and investment continues to expand. RCEP has entered a period of comprehensive implementation and deepening, with the concentrated realization of core rules such as tariff reduction, accumulation of origin, and trade facilitation, becoming the core engine of regional economic growth. The tariff dividend is also accelerating its implementation. The trade volume between China and RCEP members has increased from $1.48 trillion in 2020 to $1.94 trillion in 2025. As long as RCEP free trade can be stable, it can provide important stability support for global free trade. Meanwhile, the dividends of cumulative rules of origin continue to be released. According to data from the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade in 2025, the issuance of RCEP certificates of origin by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade system increased by 23.93% year-on-year, and the amount of visas increased by 19.37% year-on-year. In addition, the degree of integration between regional industrial and supply chains has steadily increased. By 2024, the proportion of intermediate goods trade within the RCEP region will exceed 68.3%, and the industrial chains of electronics, automobiles, and new energy will be deeply integrated. China's manufacturing capability+China Japan South Korea technology+ASEAN low-cost production+Australia New Zealand resource endowment ", forming a regional economic and trade complementarity pattern; The cooperation between industrial parks in regions such as "Two Countries, Two Parks" is accelerating, promoting capacity coordination and technology sharing among members, and reducing the risk of industrial and supply chain disruptions.
Thirdly, the urgency to jointly promote the upgrading of RCEP in response to the challenges posed by geopolitical changes has become stronger, not weaker.
The urgency to accelerate the promotion of higher-level market opening has increased. Against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical changes, RCEP needs to continue to expand tariff concessions. Members with conditions can take the lead in increasing tariff concessions and accelerating the progress of concessions; Significantly expand the level of service trade market openness among RCEP members.
The urgency to accelerate the implementation of higher standard rules has increased. RCEP has formed a relatively unified regional regulatory framework in areas such as goods trade, rules of origin, customs procedures, and trade facilitation. The next step is to upgrade RCEP to higher standard rules, reduce cross-border layout and intermediate goods flow costs, and transform the advantages of RCEP rules into tools for enterprises to enhance the resilience and risk resistance of regional production and supply chains.
The urgency to accelerate the strengthening of the RCEP governance mechanism has increased. In the face of trade protectionism, unilateralism, and geopolitical and economic shocks, it is necessary to enhance the coordination of positions and actions at the regional level. To this end, we need to accelerate the establishment of an independent and efficient RCEP Secretariat and develop a collective action plan to address regional risks. At the same time, accelerating the realization of RCEP expansion and breaking the ice, especially the accession of Hong Kong, China, plays an important role in unleashing the potential of RCEP and enhancing the level of openness.
Overall, the more turbulent the geopolitical landscape, the more prominent the strategic role of RCEP becomes, and the more it needs to help enhance regional certainty; The more severe the external risks and challenges, the stronger the urgency for RCEP to deepen economic and trade cooperation, and the more it is necessary to enhance the predictability of regional coordination; The more fragmented the external environment becomes, the more urgent it is to work together to promote the upgrading of RCEP, injecting greater certainty into the turbulent and intertwined world economic development. (The author is the President of China (Hainan) Reform and Development Research Institute and the President of Hainan Free Trade Port Research Institute)