OECD: Middle East conflict drags down global economic growth prospects

Paris, March 26 (Xinhua) - The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released its latest economic outlook report on March 26, predicting a global economic growth rate of 2.9% in 2026 and a slight rebound to 3.0% in 2027. The report points out that the uncertainty in the Middle East poses a test of global economic resilience. If energy prices remain high for a long time, it will significantly increase business costs, push up inflation levels, and drag down global economic growth prospects.

The report indicates that prior to the escalation of the Middle East conflict, the global economy maintained overall resilience, with strong investment and production activities related to artificial intelligence technology, coupled with fiscal policy support, resulting in sustained economic activity; After the escalation of the conflict, the soaring energy prices and increasing uncertainty in the situation have pushed up costs and suppressed demand, to some extent offsetting the support provided by the continued economic momentum.

The report predicts that the growth rate of the US economy will slow down from 2.0% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027. Affected by high energy prices, the economic growth rate of the Eurozone is expected to drop to 0.8% in 2026, and then rebound to 1.2% in 2027, driven by increased defense spending.

In terms of inflation, mid-term inflation expectations have increased due to the impact of soaring energy prices and supply chain disruptions. It is expected that the inflation rate of G20 countries in 2026 will be 1.2 percentage points higher than previously predicted, reaching 4.0%, and then fall back to 2.7% in 2027 as energy price pressure eases. The core inflation rate of developed economies in the G20 is expected to decrease from 2.6% in 2026 to 2.3% in 2027.

The report states that the current global economic outlook is facing significant uncertainty. The above forecast data is based on the judgment that global energy supply disruptions will gradually ease after mid-2026. If exports from the Middle East continue to be hindered, it may further push up energy prices, exacerbate shortages of key commodities, thereby driving up inflation and suppressing growth.

The report emphasizes that in the context of energy price shocks, central banks of various countries need to remain vigilant, ensure stable inflation expectations, and flexibly adjust monetary policies when necessary. In terms of finance, precise relief measures should be taken, debt sustainability should be maintained, and expenditure efficiency and revenue capacity should be improved; Strengthening financial regulation to prevent overvaluation and risk transmission; By easing trade tensions and enhancing growth certainty, we can avoid export restrictions exacerbating inflation. In the medium to long term, improving energy efficiency and reducing dependence on fossil fuel imports should be prioritized to enhance economic resilience and alleviate cost pressures.