Yu Xinyan: Behind the Foreign Trade Data, the Stable and Improved Quality of China's Economy

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 14th, the total import and export value of goods trade in China will reach 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. Among them, exports amounted to 26.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.1%; Imports amounted to 18.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.5%. Against the backdrop of weak global economic recovery, rising trade protectionism, and increasing geopolitical uncertainty, this achievement is hard won and fully demonstrates the resilience and positive trend of China's foreign trade operation.

From an overall perspective, the foundation for maintaining stable operation of foreign trade is more solid. The total import and export value of the year has reached a new level of 45 trillion yuan for the first time, indicating that China's scale advantage in foreign trade is still prominent. More importantly, this growth is achieved against the backdrop of global value chain restructuring and structural differentiation of external demand. It does not rely solely on market expansion, but more on the integrity of the domestic industrial chain, the responsiveness and supply elasticity of the manufacturing system. China has maintained its position as the largest country in goods trade for many consecutive years, reflecting not only its scale, but also a systematic advantage that has been continuously consolidated in dynamic adjustments.

The performance on the import side also has observational significance. Despite the relatively moderate growth rate of imports throughout the year due to the decline in international commodity prices, it has maintained growth for multiple consecutive quarters since the second quarter. Among them, the import of electromechanical products increased by 5.7%, with a more significant increase in the import of key intermediate goods such as electronic components and computer parts; The overall import of energy resources and some consumer goods maintained growth. This indicates that while the domestic production chain is running smoothly, the demand for key components and technological elements in the upgrading of the manufacturing industry continues to accelerate, and the supporting role of foreign trade in connecting the domestic and international dual circulation remains robust.

From the perspective of structural changes, the development of foreign trade towards excellence is becoming clearer. On the one hand, the market layout continues to expand, and China's foreign trade covers more than 240 countries and regions, achieving growth in imports and exports with over 190 of them. The trade scale of countries jointly building the "the Belt and Road" has remained at a high level, and its proportion in the total foreign trade has further increased; Meanwhile, the growth rate of trade with emerging markets such as ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa is significantly faster than the overall level. The market sources are becoming more dispersed and the regional structure is more balanced, providing more stable support for the operation of foreign trade.

On the other hand, the upgrading trend of export product structure is also prominent. The export scale of high-tech products continues to grow rapidly, green and low-carbon related products are accelerating their entry into the international market, and the proportion of independent brand exports continues to increase. With the advancement of green transformation and digitalization, the comprehensive competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing in terms of technological content, product quality, and brand influence continues to strengthen, and the export structure is evolving towards higher added value.

From the perspective of driving force, the support for endogenous growth in foreign trade is more powerful. By 2025, there will be over 780000 business entities with import and export records, of which private enterprises will import and export 26.04 trillion yuan, accounting for 57.3%. Private enterprises respond quickly to market changes and are more flexible in exploring new markets, developing new products, and laying out new models, making them an important force in stabilizing foreign trade. The high number of foreign trade entities and continuous optimization of their structure reflect a more stable market foundation for foreign trade operations, as well as the continuous optimization of China's business environment, which provides strong support for enterprise expectations.

2025 is the final year of the 14th Five Year Plan. In the past five years, despite multiple external shocks and profound adjustments in the global trade pattern, China's foreign trade has achieved remarkable results in steadily expanding scale, continuously optimizing structure, and continuously improving quality. The supporting factors for the growth of foreign trade are more diverse, with positive changes in the structure of products, markets, and business entities. The stability and coordination of foreign trade operations have significantly increased.

More importantly, in this process, China's foreign trade system has continuously improved its ability to cope with uncertainty and adapt to external changes. The resilience of the industrial and supply chains continues to strengthen, and the initiative of enterprises in exploring markets, adjusting layouts, and promoting innovation has been effectively tested. This not only enhances the endogenous driving force of foreign trade operation, but also accumulates valuable experience for promoting higher-level opening-up to the outside world. The practice of foreign trade development during the 14th Five Year Plan period has laid a solid foundation for China to enter a new stage of development.

Entering 2026, the global economic and trade environment remains complex and volatile, with many uncertain factors. But at the same time, it should be noted that China's super large market, complete industrial system, sustained high-level opening up, and continuously optimized trade facilitation environment constitute important support for the smooth operation of foreign trade. As long as we adhere to promoting reform through opening up, strengthening supply through innovation, and enhancing competitiveness through rules and efficiency, China's foreign trade is fully capable of maintaining a stable and progressive trend in a complex environment, injecting more certainty into the sustained and healthy development of the economy and global trade stability. (The author is a professor at the School of International Economics and Trade, University of International Business and Economics)