Looking at the Focus of China's Economy in the First Year of the 15th Five Year Plan from the Central Economic Work Conference

The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 10th to 11th. General Secretary Xi Jinping attended the meeting and delivered an important speech, summarizing the economic work in 2025, analyzing the current economic situation, and deploying the economic work in 2026, in order to achieve a good start to the 15th Five Year Plan and lead the way.

Continuously deepen the understanding of the regularity of doing a good job in economic work under the new situation

2025 is the end of the 14th Five Year Plan, which is of great significance in the process of Chinese path to modernization.

The meeting summarized this year's economic performance and pointed out that "the main goals of economic and social development will be successfully achieved" and "the 14th Five Year Plan is about to come to a successful end, and the new journey of the second centenary goal has achieved a good start".

The meeting believes that through practice, we have gained new understanding and appreciation for doing a good job in economic work under the new situation: we must fully tap into economic potential, adhere to policy support and reform innovation simultaneously, achieve both "letting go" and "managing well", adhere to the close combination of investing in goods and investing in people, and respond to external challenges through hard work.

Since the new era, the Central Economic Work Conference has always attached great importance to theoretical summarization to guide economic development practice. With the changing situation, the Central Economic Work Conference continues to deepen its understanding of the regularity of economic work. In 2021, it proposed the "Four Musts", in 2022, it proposed the "Six Adherences", in 2023, it proposed the "Five Musts", and in 2024, it proposed the "Fundamental Guarantee" and "Five Musts Coordination".

Focusing on doing a good job in next year's economic work, the meeting pointed out that "we should better coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, better coordinate development and security", "focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations", and "promote the effective improvement of the quality and reasonable growth of the economy".

The series of deployments of the conference have coordinated the current and long-term, while taking into account the stimulation of endogenous power and the expansion of external space, releasing a clear signal of responding to various uncertainties with the certainty of high-quality development, "said Gu Yan.

Implement more proactive and proactive macro policies

The meeting clarified the policy orientation for next year, pointing out the need to implement more proactive macro policies, adhere to seeking progress while maintaining stability, improve quality and efficiency, and increase efforts in countercyclical and cross cyclical adjustments.

Yang Zhiyong, President of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, stated that increasing macroeconomic policy regulation and enhancing policy foresight, targeting, and synergy will better guide economic and social development expectations.

The meeting pointed out the need to continue implementing more proactive fiscal policies.

Zhang Linshan stated that the meeting proposed to "maintain the necessary fiscal deficit, total debt scale, and total expenditure" and "optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure", while attaching importance to solving local fiscal difficulties, emphasizing the bottom line of "three guarantees" at the grassroots level, reflecting the idea of balancing the strengthening and efficiency of fiscal policies with risk prevention, and helping to fully release and enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policies.

The meeting made clear arrangements for next year's monetary policy, including "continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy" and "flexibly and efficiently using various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts".

These arrangements reflect the continuity and stability of macro policies, which are conducive to boosting market confidence, "said Tian Xuan, Dean of the National Institute of Finance at Tsinghua University. Moderately loose monetary policy helps to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, which can complement more proactive fiscal policies to a greater extent and enhance the consistency and effectiveness of macro policy orientation.

Finance is the lifeblood of the real economy. Tian Xuan stated that the meeting clarified the focus of financial support and proposed to "guide financial institutions to increase support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises", which will continuously enhance the endogenous driving force for high-quality development.

Building a Strong Domestic Market

A strong domestic market is the strategic support for Chinese path to modernization. The conference will prioritize "adhering to domestic demand as the driving force and building a strong domestic market" among the eight key tasks for next year.

Currently, the contradiction of insufficient effective domestic demand is still prominent, "said Chen Lifen, director of the Market Circulation Research Office at the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council. Building a strong domestic market and enhancing the endogenous driving force and reliability of the domestic circulation are inevitable choices to solidify the foundation of economic development and cope with external uncertainties.

Focusing on boosting consumption, the conference made a series of arrangements, including "deepening the implementation of the special action to boost consumption," "expanding the supply of high-quality goods and services," "optimizing the implementation of the" two new "policies," and "cleaning up unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector.

Chen Lifen stated that the conference deployment comprehensively focuses on enhancing consumption capacity, strengthening consumption willingness, optimizing consumption environment, and other aspects, aiming to create effective demand through high-quality supply, and form a higher-level dynamic balance of demand driving supply and supply creating demand.

Investment is an important way and effective means to stabilize growth and promote development. Affected by the complex and severe external environment and the decline in investment returns, the national fixed assets investment fell 1.7% year on year in the first 10 months of this year.

The meeting pointed out that promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize, appropriately increasing the scale of investment within the central budget, optimizing the implementation of "dual" projects, optimizing the management of the use of local government special bonds, continuing to play the role of new policy financial instruments, and effectively stimulating the vitality of private investment.

The deployment direction of the conference series is clear, precise and pragmatic, better leveraging the leverage role of government investment, further stimulating the vitality of private investment, and promoting the continuous release of domestic demand potential, "said Jin Li, Vice President of Southern University of Science and Technology.

Intensify efforts to cultivate and strengthen new driving forces

The meeting emphasized the need to "adhere to innovation driven development and accelerate the cultivation and growth of new driving forces", and proposed a series of specific deployments such as "formulating an integrated plan to promote the development of education and technology talents" and "building international science and technology innovation centers in Beijing (Beijing Tianjin Hebei), Shanghai (Yangtze River Delta), and the Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area".

Li Yiming, Deputy Director of the Future Industry Research Center at the China Electronics Information Industry Development Research Institute, said that innovation driven development is the core engine for building a modern economic system. The series of deployments at the conference highlight the systematic and collaborative characteristics of innovation, promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, further enhance the overall efficiency of the industrial system, and inject more abundant momentum into high-quality development.

The meeting proposed to strengthen the position of enterprises as the main body of innovation. Li Yiming said that this will be conducive to enhancing the original innovation capability and technology transformation capability, promoting the close integration of innovation chain and industrial chain, and improving the overall efficiency of the national innovation system.

The technology service industry is an important bridge connecting technological innovation and market demand. The meeting proposed the "Action Plan for Capacity Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Industry" and "Innovative Technology Financial Services".

Li Yang, Deputy Director of the Planning and Research Institute of China Electronics Information Industry Development Research Institute, said that promoting the deep integration of advanced manufacturing and modern service industries is an important way to cultivate new quality productivity and build a modern industrial system. The two achieve a leap in the value chain through full factor penetration, forming a virtuous cycle of "strong manufacturing foundation and value-added services". We should build a scientific and technological innovation ecosystem around basic research and development, technology transfer and transformation, and enterprise incubation, accelerate the transformation and industrialization of scientific and technological achievements, and effectively support the integrated development of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation.

Enhancing Power and Activation in Deepening Reform and Opening Up

Reform is the fundamental driving force for promoting national development.

The conference proposed to adhere to reform and strengthen the vitality of high-quality development, including the formulation of national unified market construction regulations, in-depth rectification of 'internal competition', improvement of supporting laws and policies for promoting private economy, promotion of win-win development for platform enterprises, platform operators, and workers, and expansion of market-oriented reform pilot projects for factors.

Professor Zhuang Rui from the School of Economics at the University of International Business and Economics stated that the conference has made specific arrangements to address the deep-seated institutional barriers and bottlenecks that constrain high-quality development, and to promote comprehensive deepening of reform while simultaneously breaking through and establishing, in order to win the initiative for development.

The meeting proposed to adhere to opening up to the outside world, promote win-win cooperation in multiple fields, and deploy specific measures such as "orderly expansion of independent opening up in the service sector", "optimizing the layout scope of free trade pilot zones", "encouraging and supporting service exports", and "promoting the signing of more regional and bilateral trade and investment agreements".

Chen Hongna, Deputy Researcher of the Department of Foreign Economic Research at the Development Research Center of the State Council, stated that China's focus on opening up to the outside world is shifting from the flow of goods and factors to institutional openness such as rules, regulations, management, and standards. The conference deployed a series of opening up measures, among which accelerating the expansion of the opening up of the service industry, promoting the innovative development of digital trade and green trade, and improving overseas investment policies are the key focus. This is not only conducive to optimizing the business environment, stimulating the creativity of business entities, but also can promote domestic in-depth reform by introducing competition rules, and provide institutional guarantee for promoting Chinese path to modernization.

Promote urban-rural integration and regional linkage

Regional coordinated development is the inherent requirement of Chinese path to modernization. The meeting proposed to adhere to coordinated development, promote urban-rural integration and regional linkage. At the same time, it is emphasized to coordinate the promotion of urbanization construction and comprehensive rural revitalization with county towns as important carriers, and promote high-quality development of county economies.

Wei Houkai, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and former director of the Institute of Rural Development, said that counties are the key entry point for urban-rural integration development. Efforts should be made from various aspects such as planning coordination, institutional linkage, policy coordination, and layout optimization to promote the two-way flow of resource elements between urban and rural areas, and to take the lead in breaking the urban-rural dual structure within the county.

This year is the last year of the 5-year transition period between consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation and effectively connecting with rural revitalization. The meeting proposed to continuously consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation, incorporate normalized assistance into the overall implementation of rural revitalization strategy, and firmly guard against the bottom line of large-scale poverty relapse.

Wei Houkai stated that continuing to focus on normalized assistance and incorporating it into the overall implementation of the rural revitalization strategy is conducive to improving the coordination and balance of development, and promoting sustained and healthy economic development.

The meeting proposed to support economically powerful provinces in shouldering the heavy burden. Strengthen the coordination and linkage of key urban agglomerations, and deepen cross administrative cooperation. Strengthen the overall planning of major bays and promote high-quality development of the marine economy.

Zhang Xiaolan, a researcher at the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, said that the series of deployments at the conference will effectively cultivate and stimulate regional development momentum. Further improving the strategic mechanism of regional coordinated development and guiding the rational flow and efficient agglomeration of various factors on the space carrier will provide high-quality spatial support and guarantee for the construction of Chinese path to modernization.

Promote comprehensive green transformation

Building a beautiful China is an important goal of comprehensively building a socialist modernized country. The meeting proposed to adhere to the guidance of "dual carbon" and promote comprehensive green transformation.

Deepen the energy-saving and carbon reduction transformation of key industries; Develop a plan outline for building an energy powerhouse and accelerate the construction of a new energy system; The conference made targeted arrangements to implement comprehensive solid waste management actions, deepen the defense of blue skies, clear waters, and clean land, and strengthen the treatment of new pollutants.

These measures aim to better coordinate the promotion of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion, and growth, expand the scale of green development while promoting pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and promote high-quality development and create a high-quality life through high-level protection, "said Li Jifeng, Director of the Climate Policy Research Office of the Resource and Environmental Policy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council.

The deployment of the conference to strengthen the construction of meteorological monitoring, forecasting, and early warning systems, accelerate the filling of the gaps in flood control, drainage, and disaster relief infrastructure in northern regions, and improve the ability to cope with extreme weather is noteworthy.

In recent years, there has been an increasing trend of extreme weather worldwide, and building a climate adaptive society is particularly important, "said Wang Yawei, Director of the Disaster Reduction Service Department of the China Meteorological Administration. Currently, it is necessary to strengthen the ability to forecast and warn of meteorological disaster risks, continuously improve the linkage mechanism between warning and response, and promote the construction of climate adaptive cities. Climate change risks should be fully considered in planning to enhance urban resilience.

Strive to do more practical things for the people

The meeting pointed out that we must adhere to the principle of putting people's livelihood first and strive to do more practical things for the people.

The conference's multiple deployments focus on the urgent needs and concerns of the people, including stabilizing employment for key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers, increasing the supply of regular high school degrees and enrollment for high-quality undergraduate programs, optimizing centralized drug procurement, and implementing rehabilitation nursing expansion and improvement projects.

The key to people's livelihood work lies in the word 'practical', "said Zhao Zheng, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council. A series of deployments cover employment, education, healthcare, and other aspects, highlighting the people-centered development concept, which will further enhance the sense of gain, happiness, and security of the people.

Ding Zhuang, an associate researcher at the Chongyang Institute of Finance at Renmin University of China, said that in order to implement and refine various arrangements, we need to accelerate the filling of the shortcomings and weaknesses in people's livelihood security, continuously transform the achievements of reform and development into people's quality of life, increase government funds for livelihood security expenditures, increase the proportion of government investment in livelihood related areas, and encourage social forces to participate in the supply of livelihood services.

As the end of the year approaches, returning home to celebrate the Chinese New Year with peace of mind is a genuine expectation of the people. The meeting called for ensuring the supply of important livelihood commodities at the end and beginning of the year, caring for the production and life of disadvantaged groups, and resolutely preventing and curbing the occurrence of major accidents.

Zhao Zheng stated that investing more resources in people, doing a solid job in various livelihood work, and improving people's well-being with sincerity and emotion will continuously meet the growing needs of the people for a better life, achieving a virtuous cycle of economic development and improvement of people's livelihoods.

Actively and prudently resolving risks in key areas

The meeting pointed out that "we must adhere to the bottom line and actively and prudently resolve risks in key areas", emphasizing "efforts to stabilize the real estate market" and "actively and orderly resolve local government debt risks".

Liu Lin, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that the real estate industry is currently in a critical period of adjustment and structural reshaping. The meeting made clear arrangements for next year's real estate work, proposing measures such as "implementing policies to control increment, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to the city", "encouraging the purchase of existing commercial housing with a focus on affordable housing", "deepening the reform of the housing provident fund system", and "orderly promoting the construction of" good houses ", adhering to the combination of long and short, and addressing both symptoms and root causes. This will help promote the stable and healthy operation of the real estate industry, accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development, and further promote high-quality development of the real estate industry.

The meeting requires actively and orderly resolving local government debt risks, urging localities to proactively reduce debt, and not to illegally add hidden debts.

Yang Zhiyong said that all regions should fully implement the requirements of the conference, resolutely curb the increase of hidden debts in local areas, implement a comprehensive debt plan, and accelerate the establishment of a government debt management system that is compatible with high-quality development. In the practice of resolving debt risks, we adhere to multiple measures, clarify the responsibilities of all parties, actively promote the clearing of local financing platforms, and better promote local economic development.

Strengthening the Party's comprehensive leadership over economic work, establishing and practicing a correct view of political achievements

The meeting emphasized the need to strengthen the Party's comprehensive leadership over economic work, form a unified will and a strong joint force. We must adhere to the centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee, and comprehensively implement the Party Central Committee's ideas, tasks, and policies on next year's economic work in various regions and departments based on actual conditions and local conditions.

Dong Yu, Executive Vice President of the China Development Planning Research Institute at Tsinghua University, stated that in order to do a good job in economic work based on reality and local conditions, we must not only adhere to the national "one game" to ensure that the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee are implemented and effective, but also actively plan based on our own industrial foundation and development stage. Each region should identify its positioning and make precise plans, laying out the development priorities for next year and even the 15th Five Year Plan period in advance, and adding momentum and contribution to the overall development of the country through effective breakthroughs at the local level.

The meeting emphasized the need to establish and practice a correct view of political achievements, adhere to delivering political achievements for the people and through practical work, consciously follow the rules in handling affairs, and improve the differentiated assessment and evaluation system.

Zhang Xiaolan stated that in order to establish and practice a correct view of political achievements, it is necessary to regard benefiting the people as the most important political achievement, and to take the actual amount of good deeds done for the people as an important criterion for testing political achievements. We should start from reality, strengthen investigation and research, scientific demonstration, accurately set key and leading indicators, improve grading and classification assessment, avoid homogeneous competition and short-sighted behavior, and fully implement the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee.