Thailand's economy is in a quagmire, Indonesia urgently implements stimulus measures, Southeast Asian countries' economic growth slows down in the third quarter

In recent days, several Southeast Asian countries have successively released their third quarter economic data. According to a report by Nikkei Asia Review on the 17th, four of the six major economies in Southeast Asia experienced a slowdown in growth in the third quarter, with weak manufacturing output and sluggish household consumption being the two main drag factors.

According to official data released by the National Economic and Social Development Commission of Thailand on the 17th, Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, lower than the previous quarter's 2.8% and reaching the lowest level in nearly four years. The slowdown in the manufacturing industry is dragging down the overall data. Compared to a growth of 1.7% in the second quarter, the third quarter saw a decrease of 1.6%, marking the first decline in six quarters. According to the report, there has been a decline in projects such as motor vehicles, machinery, and rubber products.

At the same time, the growth rate of Thailand's exports of goods and services in the third quarter also slowed down to 6.9%, far lower than the 11.2% in the second quarter, reflecting a slowdown in shipments of computers and other manufacturing products, as well as a sluggish tourism industry. According to the Ministry of Tourism and Sports of Thailand, there were approximately 7.43 million international tourists in Thailand in the third quarter of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of about 13%. The Thai Ministry of Finance has lowered its annual tourist forecast from 34.5 million to 33.5 million.

The Bank of Thailand had previously released a report stating that the strong exports in the second quarter were largely due to companies' "pre shipment" before the tariffs took effect. In the second half of the year, especially from the third quarter onwards, external demand will weaken due to the implementation of US tariffs. According to a report by the Thai newspaper "The Nation", the Secretary General of the National Council for Economic and Social Development of Thailand, Weng Fa, stated that the imposition of tariffs by the United States has affected the growth rate of global trade. She also stated that Thailand may face many unfavorable factors, as 82% of Thailand's exports to the United States fall under the category of high tariffs imposed by the United States. In the third quarter, the main problem is a lack of economic confidence, "she said.

The Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, Zhang Xueshan, described the Thai economy as "stuck in a quagmire". The institution emphasized that the persistent structural problems and external shocks have put pressure on the Thai economy.

Except for Thailand, Singapore's GDP grew by 2.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, which slowed down from 4.5% in the previous quarter. The relevant departments of the country explained that "the decline in the output of the biomedical manufacturing industry and general manufacturing industry clusters has dragged down the overall economic growth." According to Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao, the United States announced in September that it would impose 100% tariffs on all imported brands or patented drugs. Economists generally believe that the relevant tariffs may hit Singapore's pharmaceutical industry.

In addition, GDP growth in the Philippines and Indonesia also slowed down to varying degrees in the third quarter. Among them, the GDP of the Philippines in the third quarter increased by 4.0% year-on-year, which is significantly slower than the 5.5% in the second quarter.

Indonesia's GDP growth slowed down to 5.04% year-on-year in the third quarter. The Nikkei Asian Review reported that the slowdown in growth is partly due to weak private consumption. To stimulate consumption, the Indonesian government has announced nearly $3 billion in stimulus measures for the fourth quarter. In addition, the Indonesian central bank had already lowered interest rates three times in a row before keeping them unchanged in October.

Thanks to the net export increase brought about by the mining recovery, Malaysia's GDP in the third quarter grew by 5.2% year-on-year, higher than the previous quarter's 4.4%. But data shows that the growth rate of private consumption slowed down from 5.3% in the second quarter to 5.0%.

Vietnam is a clear exception, "according to Nikkei Asia Review, the country's GDP growth rate rose from 8.0% in the second quarter to 8.22% in the third quarter, driven by strong manufacturing, construction, and service industry activities. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Thang stated in October that Vietnam expects exports to grow by over 12% this year. But a report by the United Nations Development Programme suggests that the imposition of tariffs by the United States could lead to a reduction of up to one-fifth in Vietnam's exports to the United States.