The EU expects the economy to expand moderately

Xinhua news agency, Brussels, November 17 (reporter KANGYI, zhangxinwen) - the European Commission released an economic outlook report for the autumn of 2025 on the 17th, which showed that the EU economy maintained growth due to the expected surge in exports driven by the imposition of tariffs by the United States. Despite the severe external environment, the EU economy is expected to continue to expand at a moderate rate in the future.

The report predicts that the real gross domestic product (GDP) of the European Union will grow by 1.4% in 2025, and that of the euro area will grow by 1.3%; In 2026, the EU economy will grow by 1.4% and the euro zone economy will grow by 1.2%, which is lower than the previous forecast. The European Commission predicted in May this year that the EU economy will grow by 1.5% in 2026 and the euro zone economy will grow by 1.4%.

According to the report, the overall inflation rate in the euro area is expected to continue to decline, from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025. The overall inflation rate in the European Union is expected to be slightly higher than that in the euro area, gradually decreasing from 2.6% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2027.

Affected by the increase in defense spending, the EU fiscal deficit ratio is expected to rise from 3.1% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2027. The proportion of EU debt in GDP is expected to rise from 84.5% in 2024 to 85% in 2027; The proportion of euro zone debt is expected to rise from about 88% to 90.4%.

The report points out that globally, trade barriers have risen to a historical high. Compared with the prediction in the spring of 2025, the average tariff level faced by EU exports to the United States has increased. The persistent uncertainty of trade policy is still dragging down economic activities, and the inhibitory effect of tariff and non-tariff restrictions on EU economic growth will exceed expectations. Any further escalation of geopolitical tensions could exacerbate supply shocks.

Dong brofskis, member of the European Commission in charge of economic affairs, said that in view of the severe external situation, the EU must take decisive action to release its internal growth potential. This means accelerating the competitiveness agenda, simplifying regulation, improving the single market and promoting innovation.