Zhang Jian: A 'State of the Union Address' Exposes the Realistic Difficulties of the European Union

On September 16, the President of the European Commission, von der Leyen, delivered the 2026 "Union State" speech at the European Parliament. Although the EU is not a country and the President of the European Commission has limited power compared with the President of the United States, this year's "Union State" speech is still full of interest. The focus of people's attention is whether the EU has any effective strategies to resolve the crisis in the face of the current predicament? It can be said that the 'State of the Union Address' is an important reference for observing the future policy direction of the European Union.

Von der Leyen's speech of nearly 75 minutes covered a lot of contents, including economy, energy, industry, climate, artificial intelligence, diplomacy, immigration policy, values, etc., but its theme was very clear, that is, building European sovereignty and taking the European road. Von der Leyen's conclusion is that in an increasingly dangerous world, the path taken by the EU in the past few years is successful, that is, Europe "chooses to go out of its own path", and "a stronger Europe with independent capabilities is rising". Therefore, the future path of Europe is very clear, that is, "the fate of Europe must be in the hands of Europeans themselves

From a realistic perspective, in the context of multiple crises continuously overlapping and development difficulties accumulating, the blueprint for Europe's independent development depicted in this address is more of a strategic concept at the conceptual level, which is difficult to truly solve the deep predicament of the EU at present, nor can it reverse the long-term trend of overall weakness in Europe.

Looking at the entire document, it can be seen that the EU may focus on four directions in the coming year. Revitalizing the economy remains the top priority for the European Union. Including breaking down market fragmentation, improving policy implementation efficiency, strengthening energy independence, and establishing strategic reserves of key raw materials. However, from the perspective of the overall trend of industrial development, the trend of high-end manufacturing outflow and weakened industrial competitive advantage in Europe has already formed. Even if a series of safeguard policies are introduced, the structural weakness of the European economy is difficult to reverse and may continue for a long time.

Secondly, consider climate change and artificial intelligence as the two major challenges of the European Union's era. In response to climate change, the EU will introduce a climate resilience framework, establish a climate insurance alliance to fill the disaster insurance gap, and launch the European Heatwave Plan and Water Resources Initiative to ensure agricultural and food security. In terms of artificial intelligence governance, the EU attaches greater importance to exploring how to apply artificial intelligence to the real economy.

Thirdly, the EU will continue to strengthen its defense construction. Faced with the escalating mixed threats, the EU is preparing to launch a new version of its European Security Strategy, establish the "European Emergency Security Protocol" that benchmarks NATO Article IV, and explore the establishment of the European Security Council. In the coming period, the EU will continue to increase defense investment and strengthen coordination with NATO, which will in turn constrain its livelihood goals.

Fourthly, in terms of foreign trade, due to trade frictions with both China and the United States, the European Union will focus on promoting the Middle Corridor connectivity project and opening up the South Caucasus, Central Asia to Europe corridor. In addition, the upgrading of the relationship between the European Union and Canada has also received attention from multiple parties. The two countries plan to build a "future alliance" and deepen cooperation in fields such as intelligent manufacturing, the Arctic, key minerals, and artificial intelligence. In particular, von der Leyen proposed that Canada become the first "associate member" of the EU, which is quite a breakthrough in diplomatic posture and institutional arrangements.

The policy framework built around the four major areas in this speech has limited novelty and is more like a superficial repair rather than a deep reconstruction. Some suggestions, such as establishing a European Security Council, admitting Canada as the first "associate member state" beyond the scope of the European Commission's authority, reducing bureaucracy, accelerating internal market integration, and increasing the EU's own sources of budget, are still difficult to implement. On the issue of China and Europe, von der Leyen still plays the same old tune, blaming the so-called "China shock" for the deindustrialization of Europe. The entire layout seems to be actively seeking change, but in reality it is more like a passive stability maintenance under internal and external pressure, making it difficult to achieve breakthrough development.

The current situation facing Europe is not short-term cyclical fluctuations, but long-term structural and institutional decline. The various deployments in this state of the alliance address can only play a role in mitigating risks, and cannot fundamentally solve the core problems of internal division, industrial backwardness, security dependence, and shrinking discourse power. Europe does need to take a practical European path, but it requires more open and cooperative thinking, and a combination of ideals and reality. In these aspects, there are still shortcomings in the 2026 'State of the Union Address'. (The author is the Vice President of the China Institute of Modern International Relations)