Qiushi Network commentator: China has always been a positive contributor and opportunity provider to the development of the world economy

Recently, Michael Froman, Chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations, published an article in Foreign Affairs, once again hyping up the so-called "overcapacity in China" argument, interpreting China's trade surplus as the transfer of domestic imbalances to the world, and assuming that the global market's absorption capacity is approaching its limit. He claimed that once China's exports are blocked, it may trigger a series of economic and social problems and affect the world, becoming the source of the next global economic crisis. This narrative seems to be interconnected, but in reality it distorts right and wrong, and is fundamentally untenable. It is just another discourse manipulation aimed at inciting the United States to introduce discriminatory trade restrictions.

Firstly, let's take a look at the term 'overcapacity'. Froman concluded that China has overcapacity based on the large scale of industrial production, losses of some enterprises, and growth in manufacturing exports, and attributed it to industrial policies such as government subsidies. However, to determine whether there is overcapacity, we should not only look at the production scale and export quantity, but also comprehensively evaluate the supply and demand relationship and capacity utilization situation. From the perspective of capacity utilization, the utilization rate of industrial capacity above designated size in China will be 74.4% by 2025, which is generally within a reasonable range. The capacity utilization in high-tech manufacturing, high-end equipment manufacturing and other fields will be more fully utilized. From the perspective of market demand, the UAE Consensus proposes the goal of tripling the global installed capacity of renewable energy by 2030, while China's new energy products continue to reduce the cost of green technology application, allowing more countries, especially developing countries, to access and afford clean energy technologies and products. In terms of industrial policy, a reasonable and compliant industrial subsidy policy aims to correct market failures, promote technological innovation, facilitate green transformation and regional balanced development, and is a legitimate policy tool under the rules of the World Trade Organization. According to reports from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, providing research and development subsidies, tax incentives, and low interest loans for emerging industries is a common practice in countries around the world. Cambridge scholar Jostein Hogg pointed out that the United States and Europe have long used industrial policies to accuse China of "unfair competition", which clearly carries double standards. A noteworthy phenomenon is that in the past, when China exported a large amount of clothing, shoes, hats, and toys, this argument was not repeatedly hyped up as it is today; When China has a competitive advantage in areas such as new energy, electric vehicles, and high-end equipment, such labels come one after another. The intention behind this narrative change is self-evident.

As for Froman's view on China's trade surplus, it is also untrue and a misinterpretation of the basic logic of international trade. The trade surplus is the result of the combined effects of international division of labor, industrial competitiveness, and trade structure. A large surplus in exports does not necessarily mean overcapacity. China's export growth is driven not only by economies of scale and innovation capabilities, but also by the actual needs of green transformation and industrial development in various countries. Nicholas Lardy, a senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the United States, once questioned whether Boeing should also reduce aircraft production if production exceeds domestic demand, which is called "overcapacity"? Can American farmers only grow soybeans that their own people can eat? In fact, about 80% of chips in the United States are exported, and about two-thirds of commercial aircraft delivered by Boeing are sold outside of North America; The EU also maintains a significant surplus in areas such as automobiles and pharmaceuticals, so it cannot be concluded that they have "overcapacity". Furthermore, when looking at China's trade surplus, we cannot ignore the distribution of benefits along the global value chain. China's goods trade includes a large amount of processing trade, foreign-funded enterprise trade, and intermediate goods trade. By 2025, foreign-funded enterprises will contribute 16% of China's trade surplus and also benefit from the division of labor in the global industrial chain. China has never deliberately pursued a trade surplus. In the first eight months of 2026, China's imports of goods reached 14.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%. The monthly year-on-year growth rate of imports exceeded that of exports for six consecutive months. Only focusing on the trade surplus of goods, without considering the distribution of benefits along the global value chain; Only looking at how much China exports without considering how much China imports will inevitably lead to distorted conclusions.

Through the development of reality, it can be clearly seen that China's development has never brought any "impact" or "crisis" to the world, but real opportunities and dividends. China is a positive contributor to the development of the world economy. Over the past decade, China's contribution to world economic growth has remained at around 30%, making it an important engine of global economic growth. Made in China provides high-quality and cost-effective consumer goods to countries, effectively reducing the cost of living. According to research by the European Central Bank, increasing imports from China can help lower the overall import prices of the European Union and alleviate inflationary pressures in the eurozone. Harvard University professor Dani Rodrik and other economists have pointed out that China not only exports final products, but also exports a large amount of production equipment, components, and intermediate goods, which helps other countries reduce production costs and enhance industrialization capabilities. From 2012 to 2024, China exported textile machinery worth over 30 billion US dollars to developing countries, helping some Southeast Asian and South Asian countries develop into important textile producers and exporters. China is still the world's second largest import market, actively expanding imports through platforms such as the China International Import Expo, Consumer Expo, and "Export to China", and fully implementing zero tariff measures for 53 African countries with diplomatic relations, allowing more countries to share China's super large market. Chinese enterprises also drive the development of local industries and employment through investment in building factories, technological cooperation, and talent cultivation. Whether dealing with the international financial crisis or the impact of energy shortages and geopolitical conflicts, China has always maintained its own economic stability and maintained smooth global industrial and supply chains, making important contributions to the stability of the world economy and receiving high recognition from the international community. Looking ahead to the future, a more open China will undoubtedly inject more momentum and certainty into world economic growth.

History has repeatedly proven that protectionism has no way out. In recent years, some individuals in the United States have continuously innovated concepts and upgraded narratives, essentially politicizing economic and trade issues and generalizing national security concepts, creating excuses to curb and suppress China's development. However, the so-called "prescriptions" they offer, such as putting pressure on China, setting barriers, and restricting exports, may actually artificially compress market demand, cut off industrial and supply chains, and transform the risks in the deduction into real costs. Labeling China's development as a 'crisis' cannot solve the problem of the United States' own industrial development; Building walls and fortifications under the pretext of "preventing crises" cannot bring prosperity and stability to the world.