Four key words to understand the economic "first quarter report"
The first quarter of this year marks the beginning of the 15th Five Year Plan, and the economic performance serves as a barometer for the whole year. In the first quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.0% year-on-year, a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year. The national economy has achieved a good start, and its performance in all aspects is commendable.
On April 16th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to better understand the value of China's economic "first quarter report" from the four words mentioned by Mao Shengyong, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics.
steady and positive
The growth rate of major macroeconomic indicators has rebounded, and the national economy has achieved a good start
Preliminary calculations show that the gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter was 33419.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% at constant prices, which is 0.5 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of the previous year.
In terms of industry, the added value of the primary industry was 1194.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%; The added value of the secondary industry was 1.16135 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.9%; The added value of the tertiary industry was 2.06117 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2%. Agricultural production remains stable. The national planting intention survey shows that the intended planting area for grain this year is generally stable, with rice planting area basically unchanged and corn planting area steadily increasing. The industrial and service industries have achieved stable growth. In the first quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 6.1% year-on-year, which was 1.1 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of the previous year. The added value of the service industry increased by 5.2% year-on-year.
In terms of prices, the overall price situation is stable. In the first quarter, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year. After deducting food and energy prices, the core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year.
In terms of investment, fixed assets investment grew steadily. In the first quarter, the national fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) was 10270.8 billion yuan, up 1.7% year on year, and the investment turned from negative to positive. Investment in key areas has grown rapidly. In the first year of the 15th Five Year Plan, all parties seized opportunities, promoted the construction of major projects, and increased efforts to build new infrastructure. In the first quarter, infrastructure investment increased by 8.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate 8.3 percentage points faster than the whole year of the previous year. The construction of major projects is accelerating, and in the first quarter, the total planned investment for projects with a total investment of 100 million yuan or more increased by 4.5% year-on-year. Manufacturing investment is steadily recovering. In the first quarter, manufacturing investment increased by 4.1% year-on-year, accelerating by 3.5 percentage points compared to the entire previous year.
In terms of consumption, there has been a steady increase in commodity consumption. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 1.27695 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, which was 0.7 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of the previous year. The retail sales of goods increased by 2.2% year-on-year, with a growth rate 0.7 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of last year. The implementation of the policy of exchanging old for new consumer goods to improve quality and efficiency continues to have a significant driving effect on consumption. The growth of green consumption is good, and in March, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 51.5%.
In terms of employment, the overall employment situation is stable. In the first quarter, the average urban surveyed unemployment rate in China was 5.3%, unchanged from the same period last year. At the end of the first quarter, the total number of rural laborers who went out to work was 188.38 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%.
Overall, the growth rate of major macro indicators in the first quarter has rebounded, new driving forces have grown rapidly, and the national economy has achieved a good start. Mao Shengyong said that in the next stage, more proactive and effective macro policies should be implemented, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and continuously consolidating and expanding the stable and positive trend of the economy.
resilience
Adequate energy supply and strong guarantee for residents' daily life and enterprise production
Mao Shengyong stated that in the context of a high base in the first quarter of last year and a more complex and severe external environment this year, the good start of economic operation is commendable and fully demonstrates the strong resilience of China's economy.
For example, resilience in foreign trade.
In the first quarter, the total import and export volume of goods in China was 1.1838 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.0%, and the quarterly growth rate was the highest in nearly five years. Among them, the import and export of countries jointly building the "the Belt and Road" increased by 14.2%. The import and export of private enterprises increased by 16.2%, accounting for 57.3% of the total import and export volume. The export of electromechanical products increased by 18.3%.
In the past few years, from practice, no matter how the external environment changes or how difficult the situation is, the growth of imports and exports has always been strong. "Mao Shengyong analyzed that Chinese enterprises have strong competitiveness, high product cost-effectiveness, and sufficient policy value. These uncertainties can effectively hedge external uncertainties and help expand new space for China's foreign trade.
Another example is energy resilience.
Currently, due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts, international energy prices have risen significantly. On the other hand, domestically, the supply of energy resources is stable and orderly, and temporary price adjustments have been implemented in a timely manner. The energy supply for residents' daily lives and enterprise production is sufficient and the guarantee is strong. This is due to our forward-looking layout and development of the new energy industry over the years, and the construction of a diversified energy supply system, which greatly enhances the autonomy and stability of China's economy, "said Mao Shengyong.
At present, petroleum accounts for less than 20% of China's total energy consumption, while coal plays a strong role in providing a safety net, accounting for over 50%. In recent years, new energy sources such as wind and solar power have developed rapidly, and the proportion of non fossil energy consumption has increased. The overall impact of fluctuations in the international crude oil market on China's market is relatively small.
The resilience of the industry has also become more prominent.
Faced with multiple pressures such as intensified international geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations in the global energy market, and rising factor costs, China's industrial economy is pushing forward under pressure and accelerating steadily. In the first quarter, the added value of the manufacturing industry increased by 6.3% year-on-year, contributing 32% to economic growth.
Mao Shengyong stated that relying on China's super large domestic demand market, complete industrial system, and strong supporting capabilities, the industrial and supply chains remain safe and stable, effectively hedge external risk shocks, demonstrate the strong development resilience and risk resistance of China's industrial economy, and provide solid guarantees for stabilizing the macro economy.
Towards novelty and excellence
The development of new quality productivity presents high-end, intelligent, green, and new types
The steady development of new quality productive forces and the continuous growth of new driving forces in our country have provided solid support for the smooth operation of the national economy in complex environments and the development towards new and better directions.
In the first quarter, the development of new quality productivity showed four characteristics: high-end, intelligent, green, and new.
The high-end manufacturing industry and modern service industry are developing rapidly. In the first quarter, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 12.5% year-on-year, accounting for 16.9% of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, driving the growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 2 percentage points. For example, the value added of high-tech aerospace and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 17.7%, while aircraft manufacturing increased by 27.3%. From the perspective of modern service industry, in the first quarter, the added value of information transmission software and information technology services, leasing and business services increased by 10.6% and 12.2% respectively year-on-year, contributing nearly 25% to economic growth in total.
The leading role of intelligent development is constantly increasing. China has made a phased breakthrough in the commercial and large-scale application of artificial intelligence. As of March this year, the daily average usage of keywords has exceeded 140 trillion yuan, an increase of over 40% compared to the end of last year. In the first quarter, the added value of the electronic specialized material manufacturing and integrated circuit manufacturing industries directly related to artificial intelligence production and application increased by 32.5% and 49.4% respectively, and the driving and pulling effects of artificial intelligence continue to emerge.
Green transformation has given rise to new growth points. In the first quarter, the production of lithium-ion batteries and wind turbines increased by 40.8% and 30.1% year-on-year, respectively. The export of "new three types" products has grown rapidly, with electric vehicle exports increasing by 77.5%, contributing more Chinese strength to the global green and low-carbon transformation.
Traditional industries are revitalized. The transformation and upgrading of traditional industries in our country are steadily advancing, and the pace of equipment updates and technological transformations is accelerating. In the first quarter, investment in equipment and tool purchases increased by 13.9% year-on-year. In the chemical fiber industry above a certain scale, the contribution rate of value-added growth in the bio based material manufacturing industry increased by 14.4 percentage points year-on-year, and in the petroleum processing industry above a certain scale, the contribution rate of value-added growth in the biomass fuel processing industry increased by 1.4 percentage points.
full of confidence
Having the strength and confidence to deal with any risks and challenges
Looking at the whole year from the beginning of the year, Mao Shengyong stated that we have strong institutional advantages, long-term accumulated industrial advantages, market advantages, and talent advantages, which fully enable us to achieve stable economic operation and high-quality development throughout the year.
The GDP growth in the first quarter was 5.0%, which should continue to rank among the top in the world's major economies. ”Mao Shengyong analyzed that this year's economic growth rate is more supported by the cultivation of new quality productivity, innovation driven development, and accelerated growth of new driving forces. At the same time, other indicators showed relatively stable performance, with positive changes in the price field and gradual improvement in corporate profits. A good start laid a solid foundation for the whole year.
The industry is moving towards innovation and optimization, injecting new momentum into economic development.
The industrial foundation that supports a good start to the economy in the first quarter still has the conditions to maintain relatively good growth in the second quarter and throughout the year. We have conducted some market research and found that for some industries and products, there are still abundant orders that some companies cannot take on. Therefore, there are still conditions to maintain rapid growth in the next quarter and throughout the year, "said Mao Shengyong.
Overall improvement in demand creates favorable conditions for economic growth.
From the first quarter data, the contribution rate of domestic demand is higher, reaching 84.7%, an increase of nearly 30 percentage points year-on-year. The investment growth rate has turned positive compared to last year, with consumer goods imports increasing by 5.4% in the first quarter, indicating a gradual recovery in domestic market demand. Especially with the gradual release of the potential of service consumption, relevant departments have introduced a series of policies to continuously support and encourage the accelerated development of related industries.
High level opening up continues to deepen, expanding new space for economic development.
Mao Shengyong analyzed that China's import and export have very good confidence, which is due to the hard work of enterprises to improve their internal strength, enhance product technology content and comprehensive competitiveness, as well as the support of foreign trade policies. "There may still be uncertainties in the next step, but overall, there are still conditions for import and export to maintain good growth
The effective implementation of policies provides strong support for the smooth operation of the economy.
At present, various departments are vigorously implementing the key tasks of the Government Work Report, continuously exerting fiscal policies, and strengthening structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises. We are deeply implementing the special action to boost consumption, promoting employment and income growth for urban and rural residents to a greater extent, and deepening policy measures such as "artificial intelligence+", which will provide strong guarantees for the stable operation of the economy.
In such a complex external environment, we have the strength and confidence to deal with any risks and challenges. This is the confidence we have gained over the years, and we are full of confidence in the future, "said Mao Shengyong.