Weakening rules and increasing variables - Experts from multiple countries criticize the impact of US tariff policies on the global trade environment

The US Supreme Court recently announced a ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the President to impose tariffs on a large scale. Subsequently, the Trump administration announced a 15% tariff on goods from all countries and regions. Scholars from multiple countries have stated that frequent changes in the legal basis and implementation methods of US tariff policies have plunged the global trade environment into deeper levels of uncertainty.

Repeated policies weaken the stability of rules

Some experts believe that the core of this round of tariff disputes lies not in the high or low tax rates, but in the sustained decline in the predictability of global trade rules. The repeated adjustments of policies are constantly eroding the market's trust in rules.

John Bryson, a professor of international economic geography at the University of Birmingham in the UK, said that a stable policy environment is most needed for business development, but under the Trump administration's tariff policies, "the only certainty is uncertainty". This uncertainty will directly suppress the willingness of enterprises to invest, reduce employment opportunities, and force them to spend a large amount of resources on responding to policy changes, rather than expanding production and increasing technological research and development.

He analyzed that although the previous round of tariffs brought over $100 billion in revenue to the US government, the cost of these revenues was actually borne by American consumers and businesses. With the possible tariff refund claims triggered by the ruling of the US Supreme Court, the US government will face dual pressures: first, the administrative costs generated by the tariff collection and refund process itself, and second, the legal disputes and financial pressure that come with it. This situation may evolve into systemic friction in the fields of finance, law, and commercial contracts.

Felicity Dean, an international trade law expert at Queensland University of Technology in Australia, said that companies often have to go through complex legal procedures and provide complete relevant records to apply for a refund of previously paid tariffs. Frequent policy adjustments mean that companies must constantly adjust their compliance arrangements, and these additional costs will ultimately be passed on to the end market through methods such as raising commodity prices.

According to the website of Nihon Keizai Shimbun, a large number of enterprises that are expected to lose the Trump administration have filed a lawsuit to the United States Court of International Trade for tax refund. At least 10 Japanese companies, including Kawasaki Heavy Industries and Toyota Tsusho, have filed lawsuits.

Temporary tariffs exacerbate trade uncertainty

Experts point out that the tariff measures currently implemented by the United States under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act have distinct temporary characteristics. This arrangement not only failed to alleviate market anxiety, but also further exacerbated the uncertain expectations of the global market.

Taking the release and implementation of tariff policies as an example, after the US Supreme Court announced the tariff ruling, Trump immediately announced a 10% tariff on goods from all countries and regions, and on the 21st, he raised this tariff rate to 15%. However, the enforcement tax rate announced by the Customs and Border Protection, a subsidiary of the US Department of Homeland Security, on the 24th is still 10%. Despite the White House's immediate clarification that it will "work to raise the enforcement tax rate to 15%," concerns about the uncertainty of US trade policy continue to deepen.

Ian Scott, a professor at the University of Manchester, said that the current set of new tariff measures still needs to be approved by the Congress within a few months to be maintained for a long time, and the future direction of the policy is full of uncertainties.

Dean analyzed that according to current legal authorization, this tariff measure can only last for up to 150 days, so it may not necessarily impose comprehensive tariffs on US allies such as the UK and Australia in the long run. But she believes that this temporary arrangement does not reduce market risks, but instead encourages companies to prepare for the worst in advance, postpone investment and expansion plans, and form a collective behavior of "freezing first, then waiting and seeing", further suppressing market vitality.

The German Confederation of Industry and other industry organizations have issued a statement stating that the ongoing uncertainty will continue to put pressure on multinational corporations' operations, making investment and supply chain decisions more difficult. Companies urgently need certainty and a reliable trade environment. Only through binding agreements can mutual trust in economic and trade relations be consolidated.

Clemens Fest, director of the Munich Economic Research Institute in Germany, believes that the possibility of the US government imposing more tariffs on specific products cannot be ruled out, and the uncertainty of international trade has once again increased.

Policy arbitrariness drives countries to diversify their economic and trade cooperation

Experts believe that with changes in tariff policies, the global supply chain and trade pattern are undergoing profound adjustments, and the actual effectiveness of US tariffs is gradually weakening.

Bryson stated that based on the ruling of the US Supreme Court and Trump's announcement of new tariff policies, US allies such as the UK and Australia, which originally had lower tariffs, will have to bear relatively higher trade costs. The US tariff policy not only affects the global trade landscape, but also impacts the vital interests of its allies.

Scott believes that this indicates that traditional allies' interests are difficult to safeguard when the United States advances its own trade policy goals. Against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty in US trade policy, the space for solely relying on "special relationships" to seek trade preferences is narrowing. This will encourage countries such as the UK and Australia to place greater emphasis on diversifying their trading partners, by expanding economic and trade ties with other economies and mitigating the risks of changes in single market policies.

In the long run, Bryson believes that the actual effectiveness of Trump's tariff policies is gradually weakening. The pressure of tariffs has prompted many countries' enterprises to accelerate the development of other markets, promote export diversification, and enhance their ability to resist risks. Latin American economies such as Brazil and Mexico have also made similar choices by strengthening cooperation with emerging economies to avoid the uncertainty brought by US tariff policies.