China Central Asia economic and trade cooperation moves forward against the trend, demonstrating resilience (global hotspot)
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, the trade volume between China and the five Central Asian countries will exceed 100 billion US dollars by 2025, maintaining positive growth for five consecutive years. China will become the largest trading partner of Central Asian countries for the first time, and the proportion of Central Asia in China's foreign trade will further increase. The trade structure between the two sides will continue to optimize. Against the backdrop of sluggish global economic growth and shocks to the international trade system, how can China Central Asia economic and trade cooperation move forward against the trend? Why have the "Chinese solution" and "Chinese market" become unique choices for the economic and trade development of Central Asian countries? What new opportunities will China Central Asia economic and trade cooperation face in the future?
Political mutual trust and complementary strategic needs form the resilient foundation of bilateral economic and trade relations
As the Chinese New Year approaches, trucks shuttle back and forth at the West Railway Freight Yard in Yiwu, Zhejiang, creating a busy atmosphere. Mechanical equipment, daily necessities, hardware and household appliances... Countless "Made in Yiwu" products are finally assembled here and loaded into containers. The destination of this trip is five Central Asian countries. Among this batch of goods, there are cosmetics such as powder puffs and makeup brushes exported by Zhejiang Shimei Yi Cosmetics Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Shimei Yi") to five Central Asian countries. Sun Min, the founder of Shimei Yi, introduced to our reporter that the Central Asian business brings her millions of sales every year. The stable sales and repeat customers in the Central Asian region have made her increasingly convinced of the fundamental market in this area. Behind her, another fully loaded train was slowly driving out of the freight yard, sounding its horn loudly and long, carrying her beauty products and countless Yiwu merchants' expectations for the Silk Road trade in the new year, heading westward.
As the "World Capital of Small Commodities", Yiwu is an important distribution center for Chinese products entering the Central Asian market. The busy freight yard of Yiwu West Railway is a microcosm of the flourishing economic and trade relations between China and Central Asia. Data shows that by 2025, China's exports to Central Asia will reach 71.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 11%. The growth of electromechanical and high-tech products is strong, and the market share of "new three types" products is steadily expanding; China imported $35.1 billion from Central Asia, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and further diversified the types of non resource products such as chemicals, steel, and agricultural products.
The increasingly active trade between China and Central Asia is the most direct and flexible manifestation of the connection between China's complete supply chain advantages and the demand of emerging markets in Central Asia. "Xu Tao, Deputy Director of the Institute of Eurasian Social Development at the Development Research Center of the State Council of China, analyzed that in the context of weak global economic growth and serious impact on the international trade system, the political mutual trust and complementary strategic needs between China and Central Asia not only promote cooperation in large-scale projects such as infrastructure and energy between the two countries, but also promote the formation of a market driven, capillary like trade network between the two sides. This together forms the resilient foundation of the economic and trade relations between the two sides.
At present, China and Central Asian countries have achieved full coverage of the comprehensive strategic partnership, the implementation of a community of shared future for mankind at the bilateral level, and the signing of cooperation documents for the joint construction of the "the Belt and Road". The deep political mutual trust led by high-level leadership provides stable institutional expectations and guarantees for large-scale strategic projects and long-term economic and trade exchanges, which is a prerequisite for deepening cooperation. On the other hand, the economic development stages of both sides have formed deep complementarity. Central Asian countries generally prioritize infrastructure modernization, industrial upgrading, and green energy as the direction of national transformation, while China has a mature, efficient, and cost-effective complete industrial chain and solutions in related fields. This precise matching of supply and demand has given rise to strong endogenous driving forces.
The Chinese plan is in line with the aspirations of Central Asian countries to pursue independent and sustainable development
Central Asia has been a crossroads for the exchange of Eastern and Western civilizations since ancient times, as well as an important transportation hub and energy supply corridor. In recent years, major global powers and groups of countries, as well as major regional economies, have been committed to building cooperation frameworks with the five Central Asian countries. In this context, Central Asian countries are increasingly prioritizing Chinese solutions and the Chinese market.
Why China? Sun Min shared the changes in doing business with Central Asian clients over the years.
Nowadays, logistics is becoming more and more convenient. Products are produced on the production line and can be delivered to Central Asia on the next day. Central Asian customers place orders at designated locations, and we produce immediately after receiving the order. It feels like they ordered 'long-distance takeout', "said Sun Min. When doing business with Central Asian customers, they generally use RMB settlement, which is very convenient. Sun Min will also quickly improve our products based on feedback from Central Asian customers. "Our factory design and production processes are very mature, and improvements are also made quickly and timely." Sun Min said that quick response and good quality at a reasonable price are the key to winning the market with many peers in Yiwu.
Behind the changes that Sun Sensitive has experienced is the Central Asian market's recognition of China through comparison and practice.
The Central Asian region shares a common border with China of over 3000 kilometers. The proximity of geography has been transformed into cost and time advantages in modern logistics and energy pipeline networks. When Central Asia needs to find stable and large export markets for energy, minerals, and agricultural products, the adjacent and continuously growing Chinese market naturally becomes the first choice. At the same time, the port cluster along the eastern coast of China provides Central Asia with a convenient 'seaport' to reach the global market, and this dual channel value is incomparable to other distant countries. Xu Tao analyzed that choosing China directly relates to Central Asia's own transformation from a 'land lock' to a 'land link'.
Secondly, Central Asian countries are at a critical stage of industrialization, urbanization, and green transformation, and capital and technology costs are the primary considerations, "said Xu Tao. In addition to daily consumer goods, China has mature technologies in areas such as photovoltaics, wind power, ultra-high voltage, and intelligent water-saving agriculture, and has full industry chain capabilities and cost control advantages. The Chinese solution has achieved a better balance between performance and cost, providing not only products but also a package of technology, standards, and services to adapt to the industrial foundation and operational capabilities of Central Asia's development.
Furthermore, the depth and comprehensiveness of the cooperation between the two parties constitute a unique model. Xu Tao believes that cooperation with other major countries often comes with additional conditions or focuses on a single field. China's cooperation with Central Asia covers comprehensive interactions such as politics, economy, and culture. This cooperation is based on the principles of "non-interference in internal affairs" and "mutual consultation, joint construction and sharing", and through the joint construction of the "the Belt and Road" initiative to achieve institutional docking with national development strategies, which conforms to the aspirations of Central Asian countries to pursue independent and sustainable development. The promotion of local currency settlement and the stable operation of cross-border channels are products of deep mutual trust, providing a predictable and stable cooperation environment for enterprises and businessmen.
Seize the opportunity of development and transformation in Central Asia, and move towards deep connectivity
In 2025, against the backdrop of weak global economic recovery, Central Asian countries will demonstrate growth resilience.
After the beginning of spring, I plan to go to Central Asia by myself, meet old customers, and see if our products need further improvement. "Sun Min said that in 2026, she will go to Central Asia for on-site inspection to explore whether stable sales points and warehouses can be established locally.
To move towards the next stage of cooperation between China and Central Asia, it is necessary for multiple parties to work together. Not only should we actively respond to market demand, but we should also actively embed ourselves in the deep transformation that Central Asian countries are vigorously promoting, and seize the industrial opportunities brought by the development and transformation needs of Central Asian countries. Xu Tao believes that the urgent need for social development and transformation in Central Asia provides an opportunity for both sides to move towards deep interconnection:
Firstly, in the face of the pressure of shrinking water resources and climate change, developing renewable energy and modern agriculture and industry has become a strategic goal for many Central Asian countries. Kazakhstan releases' Low Carbon Development Vision Before 2050 '; Uzbekistan has formulated the "2019-2030 Transition Strategy to a Green Economy"... "Promoting the development and utilization of renewable energy and achieving green transformation has become an urgent need for Central Asian countries, as well as a universal consensus and collective action of Central Asian countries." Xu Tao believes that China's opportunity lies in promoting the deepening of cooperation towards "technology sharing, standard building, and industrial co education", responding to the ecological security concerns of Central Asia, and promoting China's transformation from a product supplier to a joint maker of regional green rules and a long-term partner of green development.
Secondly, the population of Central Asia is highly young, the Internet penetration rate is rising rapidly, and the digital consumer market has huge potential. Both parties can collaborate to promote the interconnection and compatibility of digital infrastructure, and encourage enterprises to carry out localized innovation and joint venture operations in areas such as mobile payments, smart logistics, and digital content. This can provide valuable adaptation and incubation space for China's mature digital business models, as well as inject leapfrog development digital momentum into Central Asia, jointly shaping a vibrant regional digital market.
Thirdly, Central Asian countries have different national conditions, resource endowments, and development stages. While promoting the deepening of regional interconnectivity, it is necessary to implement refined cooperation based on "one country, one policy". For example, Kazakhstan has resource advantages, Uzbekistan has the largest population size and market potential, Kyrgyzstan is an important transit channel and hydropower resource country... "Accurately connecting with the most urgent and unique development agendas of various countries, making China's funds, technology, and experience the key puzzle in their transformation blueprint, can achieve sustainable deep interconnection, and build a stable, prosperous, harmonious, and connected new ecology of Central Asian development," said Xu Tao.