German research shows that the $200 billion tariff revenue in the United States is almost entirely paid for by Americans

A research report released by the German think tank Kiel Institute for the World Economy on the 19th shows that the additional costs incurred by the US tariffs are mainly borne by US importers and consumers.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal on the 19th, this study suggests that the impact of tariffs may manifest over time in the form of rising prices for American consumers. Researchers from the Kiel Institute for World Economy analyzed $4 trillion worth of freight data between January 2024 and November 2025 and found that foreign exporters only bore about 4% of the burden caused by last year's US tariff increases by lowering prices, while American consumers and importers bore 96% of the burden.

Meanwhile, research has found that foreign exporters have not offset the impact of new tariffs by lowering prices. For example, the value and quantity of India's exports to the United States have significantly decreased by 24%, but the unit price remains unchanged. That is to say, they supply less, not cheaper.

Researchers from the Kiel Institute for World Economy believe that these tariffs are not essentially aimed at foreign producers, but rather at levying consumption taxes on Americans. The main author of this study, Julian Hintz, the head of trade policy research at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, bluntly stated, "There is no such thing as foreigners transferring wealth to the United States in the form of tariffs

Xinz stated that the $200 billion in additional US tariff revenue from last year was "almost entirely paid for by Americans". He added that this may push up the inflation rate in the United States over time.