Surplus drops sharply, Germany worries about long-term trade crisis

According to a report on the "Deutsche Welle" website on the 17th, the German Federal Trade and Investment Agency (GTAI) predicts that by the end of this year, Germany's overall export value will increase by 0.6%, reaching about 1.6 trillion euros, the same as in 2022 for the third consecutive year, based on official trade data for the first three quarters of 2025; The import volume will increase by 4.4% to about 1.4 trillion euros, which will reduce Germany's trade surplus to about 200 billion euros, the lowest level since 2012 (excluding the period from 2020 to 2022 affected by COVID-19). Moreover, Germany's export prospects for 2026 remain bleak.

According to GTAI data, Germany's exports to China are expected to decline by 10% this year, to 81 billion euros. This will place China seventh on the list of export destinations in Germany, dropping out of the top five for the first time since 2010. On the other hand, Germany's imports from China are expected to increase by over 7% this year, reaching approximately 168 billion euros.

China is not the only challenge faced by German exporters. According to GTAI's forecast, Germany's exports to the United States will also decline by 7.3% this year, slightly below 150 billion euros. By the end of the year, the downward trend may further accelerate, "warned Roland Rhodes, a Washington based expert at GTAI. Due to many German companies having already implemented export plans ahead of schedule before the United States imposed tariffs on key German export goods, Germany's annual exports to the United States may decrease by 8% to 9%. Moreover, German exporters will once again suffer losses in their US business in 2026.

The data also shows that various industries in Germany will face different export challenges in 2025: food exports are expected to grow by over 6%, reaching a record high of 86 billion euros; The export of the chemical industry is expected to slightly increase, especially with pharmaceuticals and fertilizers becoming the main factors supporting the trade surplus, with both expected export growth rates exceeding 3%; The plastic industry is one of the most affected industries, with exports expected to decline by over 2%; The petrochemical industry, which is also highly dependent on energy consumption, is expected to experience a 13% drop in exports; Meanwhile, due to the expected severe impact of tariffs imposed by the United States on steel and aluminum on EU machinery products, German mechanical engineering exports are expected to decrease by 1.7%; The automotive industry is also one of the most affected industries, with exports expected to decline by 3.2%. China and other emerging markets are gradually transitioning towards electric vehicles, which usually means that Chinese made electric vehicles will have more advantages.

The German newspaper Bild quoted Timo Walmoshauser, director of the Ifo Economic Research Institute, as warning that a crisis in German trade similar to the export decline experienced by Italy or Japan could last for up to ten years.