The cooling of employment and high prices make it difficult to dispel the "chill" in the US economy

The Trump administration's tariff policies have brought multiple uncertainties to the US economy. The third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data has not been fully revealed due to the previous federal government shutdown, and factors such as a cooling job market and sustained high price pressures have made the US economy's recent "chill" difficult to dispel.

After the record breaking 43 day shutdown of the US federal government ended on the 12th, several previously delayed economic data began to be released last week, but did not bring any encouraging information.

The US Department of Labor released data on the 20th showing that the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest level since November 2021. Despite the significant increase of 119000 non farm jobs in the United States this month, which exceeded market expectations, 470000 people entered the labor market at the same time. On the one hand, this has pushed up the unemployment rate and also demonstrated the urgent need for ordinary people to find jobs to sustain their livelihoods under high inflation.

The latest employment report also revised down the non farm sector employment data for July and August from 79000 and 22000 respectively to 72000 and negative 4000. The United States has seen a negative growth of 13000 in June, while the previous negative growth occurred in the year 2020 when the COVID-19 was raging.

In terms of time, the first four months of this year saw a monthly increase of over 100000 non farm employment positions, while the overall trend weakened significantly from May to August, with an average monthly increase of only 18500. It is worth noting that the latter stage coincides with the concentrated impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies.

Due to the lack of recovery from the impact of the "shutdown", the release of industrial production, import and export prices, new housing permits and construction data, and third quarter service industry survey data, which were originally scheduled to be released last week, continues to be delayed. The World Large Enterprises Research Association, which relies on government basic data, also has to delay the release of its leading economic index.

Joanne Hsu, the head of the consumer survey project at the University of Michigan, said that after the end of the federal government shutdown, consumer sentiment has slightly improved, but they still feel frustrated by high prices and weak incomes. Meanwhile, despite some improvement in consumer expectations for future inflation, they indicate that their personal finances are burdened by the current high prices.

The recent survey data released by the University of Michigan shows that the final consumer confidence index in the United States dropped to 51.0 in November, lower than the 53.6 in October.

According to the observation of reporters, the end of each year shopping season is a key window for unleashing consumer demand, and the chill brought to consumers by weak economic growth is likely to be difficult to dissipate in the short term.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank released a fourth quarter survey of 33 professional researchers on the 17th, which showed that their median forecast for the US real GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter was 1.1%, lower than the previous forecast of 1.3%. Their forecast for the first quarter of next year decreased from 1.9% to 1.6%.

Carlos Abrams Rivera, CEO of American packaged food brand Kraft Heinz, said that as the Christmas season approaches, American consumer sentiment is in "one of the worst states" in decades.