Guarding against the wind and moving forward in the tide (global peace) - Reflections on the 30th anniversary of the establishment of the World Trade Organization

At the crossroads of history, should we build isolated "walls" or open "bridges"? Faced with the trend of economic globalization, any country, big or small, strong or weak, once deviating from the trend, will eventually fall behind the times

The international economic and trade landscape is undergoing profound changes. On the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of the World Trade Organization, the international trading system presents two prominent characteristics: on the one hand, trade wars and tariff wars initiated by individual countries seriously impact the world economy and damage international trade rules; On the other hand, countries are actively seeking change in the face of challenges, with a surge in various regional and multilateral trade agreements. International observers are concerned that the global economic and trade cooperation landscape is being eroded by a "hilly landscape" shaped by geopolitical games. The rule-based multilateral trading system, once the stabilizer of the world economy, is facing unprecedented challenges.

What kind of economic and trade order does the world need in the long run? Where will the multilateral trading system go? To answer these two questions, it is necessary to have an objective and rational comprehensive observation as the basis, grasp the direction of people's hearts and the trend of the times in the chaotic situation, avoid being blinded by one leaf, and continuously gather consensus and strength to promote stable and far-reaching international economic and trade cooperation.

（1） Resilience: Adapting to Crisis

Trade has long been regarded as the cornerstone of global economic development. As early as the 18th century, economist Adam Smith once said, "Trade is like a bridge, connecting the wealth and opportunities of the world.

Before and after the end of World War II, various parties engaged in in-depth thinking on what kind of international economic and trade order should be built after the war, which originated from the inherent connection between the beggar thy neighbor trade policy and the outbreak of World War II. In the 1930s, trade protectionism not only pushed the world into the depths of the Great Depression, but was also considered a catalyst for the most destructive wars in human history. The lesson is obvious: protectionism may seem like a shield, but it can easily become a cage, "said Swedish historian Norberg. Trade protectionism abandons not only wealth, but also the vitality and constant innovation that make civilization shine.

Focusing on eliminating the root causes of conflicts, a concept has gradually taken root: promoting mutual market opening among countries and establishing a free trade system. Since then, the international economic order based on free trade has continuously evolved and become an important guarantee for global stability and prosperity. The historic economic success of this period is largely attributed to the stable operation of the international trade system based on the rules of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and the World Trade Organization. Among them, the United States was the main builder and participant of the post-war international economic order and multilateral trading system, as well as a long-term beneficiary.

In recent years, some countries have shifted their economic and trade policies towards protectionism and unilateralism due to domestic political reasons, which not only damages the legitimate rights and interests of other countries, but also shakes the foundation of the multilateral trading system. According to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, by 2025, global tariff levels will continue to rise, while non-tariff trade barriers will increase simultaneously, leading to increased supply chain costs and compressed profit margins for businesses.

The cost of breaking multilateral trade rules is the possibility of returning to the power based international trading system of bullying the weak and the big bullying the small before the establishment of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and the World Trade Organization. The question arises: Will humanity repeat the mistakes of history?

Despite the 'strong headwinds', world trade has shown resilience, "said the Director General of the World Trade Organization, Evira. Looking at the world, efforts from all parties to promote open trade are constantly strengthening. The China ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 Upgrade Protocol has been officially signed, the European Union is advancing trade agreements with the Southern Common Market and Mexico, and Brazil and India have announced their efforts to increase bilateral trade to $20 billion by 2030... These efforts collectively constitute a collective response to unilateralism.

In the face of crisis, the "stress response" of all parties has its inevitability. In the past few decades, the rapid development of economic globalization has formed a deep interdependence of interests among countries - the vast ocean of the world economy will not change its direction due to local reefs. As Professor Jeffrey Frieden of Columbia University has pointed out, the abandonment of multilateralism by a single country does not mean the end of the multilateral trading system. As long as other countries are willing to cooperate on the basis of trust, the system can still operate.

（2） Refactoring: The Sprout of a New Ecology

Looking beyond the perspective of crisis response, international economic and trade cooperation is undergoing more profound changes, shaping the future pattern of global trade.

From the perspective of driving force, since 2000, the trade of goods in developing economies has grown by 4.6 times, much faster than developed economies, and their global share has increased from 30% to 45%, becoming an increasingly important driving force for global trade growth. In 2024, the South South trade volume reached 5.7 trillion US dollars, accounting for 24% of the global trade volume and a year-on-year increase of 5%. The continuous deepening of economic and trade ties among countries in the global South marks that the global South is becoming an important force in reshaping the system and will play an important role in the formulation of global economic and trade rules.

From a structural perspective, the incremental space for global trade development is expanding in multiple ways. The "Digital Trade Development and Cooperation Report 2025" shows that the scale of global digital service trade continues to expand, reaching 4.64 trillion US dollars in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%. At a time when the growth rate of traditional trade is slowing down, digital trade, green trade, and other industries are growing against the trend. The development of emerging trade fields spurred by technological changes not only alleviates the pressure of global trade stagnation, but also provides a more sustainable and inclusive development path for global economic and trade cooperation.

From the perspective of the internet, countries are building diverse trading partner networks to reduce dependence on a single market and enhance foreign trade resilience. The number of regional trade agreements signed between each other has increased from less than a hundred at the beginning of this century to over 600 currently. This not only promotes the coordination of trade and investment policies, but also advances the depth and breadth of global economic integration, providing an important supplement to the multilateral trading system.

From an industrial perspective, most countries are still striving to create new advantages for global development, hoping to reshape their position in the global value chain. Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are accelerating the layout of emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and clean energy, breaking their dependence on oil exports; Brazil continues to upgrade its fuel ethanol technology, transforming its advantage as the world's largest sugarcane producer into a technological export advantage; South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria and other African countries are accelerating the popularization of mobile payments, striving to seize the opportunities of digital economy development... Taking the initiative of each country not only helps to enhance their own economic resilience to overcome headwinds, but also gathers more new momentum for global cooperation.

Whether it is the macro perspective of global trade or the micro choices of countries' development, it all indicates that economic globalization is adapting to new challenges and seeking new breakthroughs. The direction between crisis and response, resistance and motivation, interaction and game is clearer: the world cannot return to a closed and isolated state, let alone be artificially fragmented.

（3） Future: Guarding Innovation

In times of change, one belief must be firmly upheld: multilateralism is the inevitable choice to solve the difficulties and challenges facing the world, and firmly maintaining the multilateral trading system can promote stable and far-reaching international economic and trade cooperation.

This year marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of the World Trade Organization. The multilateral trading system, with the World Trade Organization at its core, is the cornerstone of international trade. It not only supports the healthy and orderly development of global trade, but also plays an important role in promoting the development of human civilization, and must be jointly maintained. Studies have shown that before the Industrial Revolution, the growth rate of world trade was only maintained at around 0.27%; In the 1950s to 1970s, the emergence of multilateral free trade policies gradually reduced trade barriers between countries and effectively resolved trade frictions. World trade entered a phase of rapid growth, significantly improving global welfare.

For a long time, the multilateral trading system and regional trade arrangements have been the two wheels driving economic globalization forward. Only by synergizing the two wheels can we promote the orderly and healthy development of international trade. The multilateral trading system is facing severe challenges, bringing serious uncertainty and instability to global development. To maintain the momentum of economic globalization, efforts made by all parties in bilateral and regional economic and trade system arrangements can to some extent alleviate the impact of shocks, but cannot replace the multilateral trading system.

Focusing on the fundamentals, the international community should gather consensus, work together to maintain the multilateral trading system, and promote the WTO to better play a positive role. To enhance the authority and effectiveness of the multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organization at its core, adhere to the correct direction of World Trade Organization reform, uphold basic principles such as most favored nation treatment and non discrimination, promote international economic and trade rules to keep pace with the times, and better protect the legitimate rights and interests of developing countries.

As a responsible member of the World Trade Organization, China actively practices the concept of free trade, effectively enhances the stability, transparency, and predictability of trade policies, significantly opens up its market, and makes positive contributions to maintaining the effectiveness and authority of the multilateral trading system. On September 23rd local time, China announced at the high-level meeting of the Global Development Initiative hosted by China at the United Nations headquarters in New York that as a responsible developing country, China will not seek new special and differential treatment in current and future negotiations at the World Trade Organization. This decision marks an important shift in China's role in the global economic and trade system, demonstrating its firm commitment to maintaining the multilateral trading system.

In the face of trade wars and tariff wars, China firmly opposes unilateralism and protectionism, and has become a key force in defending the multilateral trading system. In the current situation, it is crucial to firmly defend multilateralism. Protectionism and excessive tariffs cannot bring development and prosperity, but will only cause chaos. China's firm attitude towards addressing global challenges gives strength and confidence to all countries

History never advances in a straight line. 30 years ago, the birth of the World Trade Organization made the world believe that trade conflicts can be resolved through rules; Today, 30 years later, when the rules based international order is facing a test of survival, the common choices of the international community will determine the future direction. Whether to build a "bridge" or a "wall" tests the wisdom of various countries. Economic globalization is a historical trend, driven by momentum and hindered by resistance. Any country, big or small, strong or weak, once deviating from the trend, will eventually fall behind the times.

China is willing to work with all parties to follow the trend, adhere to the right path, firmly uphold the multilateral trading system, promote inclusive and inclusive economic globalization, expand the cake of common development through open cooperation, and create a prosperous future together.