In November, the Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing industry rose to 49.2% - the overall level of economic prosperity remained stable
On November 30th, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In November, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry was 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; The non manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from last month; The comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from last month, and the overall level of China's economic prosperity remained stable.
Manufacturing PMI slightly rebounds
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2% in November, indicating an improvement in the economic situation.
There has been improvement in both the production and demand ends. The production index and new order index were 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, up 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The production index reached a critical point, and both the production and demand sides of the manufacturing industry improved. Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that from an industry perspective, the production index and new order index of industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing are both in the expansion range, and the production and demand ends are relatively active; The two indices of industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, chemical fiber and rubber plastic products are both below the critical point, indicating a low level of prosperity.
The PMI for small businesses has significantly rebounded. The PMI of large enterprises was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from last month, indicating a decline in the economic outlook; The PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 48.9%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the business climate; The PMI for small businesses was 49.1%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a nearly 6-month high, indicating a significant rebound in business sentiment.
The high-tech manufacturing industry continues to expand. The PMI for high-tech manufacturing industry is 50.1%, which has been above the critical point for 10 consecutive months, and related industries continue to maintain growth. The PMI for equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries were 49.8% and 49.4%, respectively, a decrease of 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points from last month. The PMI for high energy consuming industries was 48.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a low-level rebound in the economic situation.
Market expectations are stable with an upward trend. The expected index of production and operation activities is 53.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month, indicating that manufacturing enterprises have increased confidence in the recent market development. From an industry perspective, the expected index of production and operation activities in industries such as non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace equipment, etc. are all in the high prosperity range of over 57.0%, and related enterprises are more optimistic about the development of the industry.
Optimistic market expectations for enterprises
In November, the non manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the level of non manufacturing prosperity.
The index of business activities in the service industry has fallen. Huo Lihui analyzed that due to factors such as the fading of holiday effects, the service industry business activity index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from last month. From an industry perspective, the business activity indices of industries such as railway transportation, telecommunications, broadcasting and television, satellite transmission services, and monetary and financial services are all in the high prosperity range of over 55.0%, and the total business volume maintains rapid growth; The business activity index of industries such as real estate and residential services is below the critical point, indicating weak market activity. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 55.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from last month, still in a relatively high prosperity range, indicating that service industry enterprises remain optimistic about future market development.
The index of business activities in the construction industry has rebounded. The business activity index of the construction industry was 49.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the prosperity level of the construction industry. Huo Lihui stated that based on market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 57.9%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from last month, indicating that construction companies have regained confidence in the recent development of the industry. The employment index of the construction industry was 41.8%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the employment prospects of enterprises.
The comprehensive PMI output index has slightly declined. In November, the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, were 50.0% and 49.5%, respectively.
The policy has a significant driving effect
Not long ago, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Financial Regulation, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and other relevant parties, organized the National Development Bank, the Export Import Bank of China, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China to accelerate the investment of new policy based financial instruments.
The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission introduced that as of now, all 500 billion yuan of new policy based financial instrument funds have been fully invested, supporting more than 2300 projects with a total investment of about 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy, artificial intelligence, consumer infrastructure, as well as transportation, energy, underground pipeline construction and renovation, urban renewal and other fields. This new policy based financial instrument has increased its support for major economic provinces, while also supporting a number of eligible private investment projects in important industries and key areas.
At the same time, the central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from the local debt balance limit to local governments, including an additional 200 billion yuan of special bond quota, which is specifically used to support investment and construction in some provinces.
According to expert analysis, these "two 500 billion" stable growth policies have a significant driving effect on the recovery of the manufacturing industry's prosperity. Especially the 500 billion yuan new policy financial instruments that have been fully deployed have generated a boost in infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment in November. By the end of the year, an additional 500 billion yuan of special bonds will be issued, which will also supplement local financial resources and further drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry.