透过“三季报”看中国经济稳步前行（经济新方位）
10月20日，国家统计局发布2025年前三季度国民经济运行情况。数据显示，前三季度，国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长5.2%，其中三季度GDP同比增长4.8%。从环比看，经季节因素调整后，三季度GDP环比增长1.1%，比二季度回升0.1个百分点。经济运行持续保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。
“稳”的格局、“进”的势头、“韧”的特性没有改变
如何评价前三季度经济运行总体表现？国家统计局新闻发言人从三方面进行了解读。
——经济平稳运行的主基调没有改变。
从经济增长看，前三季度GDP同比增长5.2%，比上年全年和上年同期分别加快0.2个百分点、0.4个百分点；经济增量达到39679亿元，同比多增1368亿元。
从就业物价看，前三季度，全国城镇调查失业率平均值为5.2%，与上半年持平；居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比略降0.1%，但扣除食品和能源的核心CPI上涨0.6%，其中9月份上涨1.0%，涨幅连续5个月扩大。
从国际收支看，外贸展现强大韧性，货物进出口规模创历史同期新高，增速逐季回升，9月末外汇储备继续保持在3.3万亿美元以上，人民币汇率稳中有升。
此外，主要实物量指标也保持稳定增长。前三季度，规模以上工业发电量同比增长1.6%，货物周转量、旅客周转量分别增长4.8%、4.4%。
——高质量发展扎实推进的态势没有改变。
今年以来，各方面因地制宜发展新质生产力，推动经济结构不断调优、新旧动能有序转换。
前三季度，规模以上装备制造业、高技术制造业增加值占规模以上工业增加值的比重分别达到35.9%、16.7%。绿色低碳转型取得新进展，非化石能源消费占能源消费总量的比重同比提高约1.7个百分点。外贸新动能成长壮大，多元化市场成为出口增长的有力支撑。民生保障有力有效，全国居民人均可支配收入增长与经济增长同步，城乡居民收入相对差距继续缩小。
——经济韧性强潜能大的基本特性没有改变。
今年以来，外部环境变化带来的不利影响加深，国内有效需求不足，一些企业经营困难，推动经济稳定运行面临不少困难挑战。这种情况下，我国前三季度经济增长5.2%，在主要经济体中名列前茅，充分展现了中国经济在不稳定不确定环境下应变破局的能力和抗压耐压的强大韧性。
国家统计局新闻发言人表示，总体看，尽管外部环境复杂演变，经济发展面临不少压力，但我国经济“稳”的格局、“进”的势头、“韧”的特性没有改变，保持稳中有进发展态势具有坚实支撑。
政策发力显效，为经济运行稳底盘、为长远发展蓄势增能
我国经济顶住压力、稳步前行，离不开宏观政策的主动作为和精准发力。国家统计局新闻发言人认为，更加积极有为的宏观政策有效实施，既为当前经济运行稳底盘，也为长远发展蓄势增能。
促进消费潜力有序释放。今年，有关部门分四批向地方下达了3000亿元超长期特别国债资金，支持消费品以旧换新加力扩围，助力居民消费需求释放。前三季度，最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率达53.5%，比上年全年提升9.0个百分点，继续发挥经济增长主引擎作用；以旧换新政策涉及的限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类、通讯器材类商品零售额均保持两位数增长；截至9月10日，今年全国汽车以旧换新申请量已突破830万份，相当于每天有超3万人申请换新车。
促进产业优化升级。财政政策打出组合拳，配套金融政策及时推出，推动了大规模设备更新改造。前三季度，设备工器具购置投资同比增长14.0%，拉动全部投资增长2.0个百分点，成为拉动投资的重要支点。与设备更新相关的计算机及办公设备制造业、通用设备制造业、铁路船舶航空航天和其他运输设备制造业投资分别增长7.4%、11.8%、22.3%。
促进新动能稳步成长。“两新”“两重”等政策效应持续向生产端传导，带动设备制造、消费品制造相关行业和产品生产，也推动了绿色制造、数字技术等领域的生产扩张与技术迭代。前三季度，规模以上锂离子电池制造、船舶及相关装置制造、电机制造等行业增加值同比分别增长29.8%、22.9%、17.1%，数控锻压设备、包装专用设备等更新类产品产量分别增长11.7%、26.0%，新能源汽车、电动自行车、平板电脑等换新类产品产量分别增长29.7%、27.1%、9.5%。
促进经济循环有序流动。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，综合整治“内卷式”竞争，推动市场竞争秩序改善，货物、人员、资金等要素流动加快。9月份，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）同比降幅连续2个月收窄；制造业采购经理指数（PMI）中，供应商配送时间指数为50.8%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，连续4个月上升。前三季度，货物、旅客周转量同比分别增长4.8%、4.4%。同时，在稳定和活跃资本市场相关政策作用下，前三季度沪深两市股票成交额同比增长106.8%，有利于提振社会信心。
实现全年预期目标有较多有利条件
初步核算，三季度GDP同比增长4.8%，增速比二季度回落0.4个百分点。国家统计局新闻发言人认为，这主要是外部环境复杂严峻、国内结构调整压力较大等因素共同作用的结果，“尽管三季度经济增速有所回落，但经济稳中有进发展态势没有变。”
看增长水平，三季度4.8%的经济增速水平仍明显高于多数主要经济体。三季度经济总量达35.5万亿元，超过全球第三大经济体2024年全年经济总量。
看就业物价，三季度城镇调查失业率与上年同期持平，核心CPI同比涨幅持续扩大，PPI降幅连续2个月收窄，就业形势总体稳定，物价运行有所改善。
看国际收支，三季度货物进出口总额同比增长6.0%，外汇储备连续2个月增加，保持总体平衡。
看发展质量，经济转型升级态势持续。三季度，规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增速明显快于全部工业；信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业增加值增长11.7%，比上年同期加快1.7个百分点。
国家统计局新闻发言人表示，展望下阶段，实现全年预期目标有较多有利条件——从发展态势看，前三季度经济平稳增长为完成全年目标打下了较好基础；从发展动能看，新质生产力加快培育，将继续创造新的增长点，也有助于对冲下行压力，增强上行动力；从发展支撑看，宏观政策持续显效将为经济平稳运行保驾护航。
此外，从先行指标和高频指标看，积极因素还在累积。9月份，制造业采购经理指数连续2个月回升；10月上旬，流通领域一些重要工业品价格继续回升，有利于企业盈利状况改善；据有关部门测算，国庆、中秋假期国内出游8.88亿人次，群众体育赛事、演唱会、音乐节等人气十足。这些都彰显了我国经济的韧性和活力。
“实现全年预期目标有基础有支撑，但也需要付出艰苦努力。”国家统计局新闻发言人表示，要有效发挥各项政策效能，统筹好短期增长和中长期发展，推动新旧动能平稳转换，持续深化关键领域改革，不断提升经济发展内生动能。
译文：
Looking at the steady progress of China's economy through the "Third Quarter Report" (new economic direction)
On October 20th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the performance of the national economy in the first three quarters of 2025. Data shows that in the first three quarters, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with a 4.8% year-on-year growth in the third quarter. From a month on month perspective, after adjusting for seasonal factors, the GDP in the third quarter increased by 1.1%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the second quarter. The economic operation continues to maintain an overall stable and progressive development trend.
The pattern of 'stability', the momentum of 'progress', and the characteristics of' resilience 'have not changed
How to evaluate the overall performance of economic operation in the first three quarters? The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics interpreted it from three aspects.
——The main tone of stable economic operation has not changed.
From the perspective of economic growth, the GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points respectively compared to the whole year and the same period last year; The economic increment reached 39679 billion yuan, an increase of 1368 billion yuan year-on-year.
From the perspective of employment prices, in the first three quarters, the average surveyed urban unemployment rate in China was 5.2%, which remained the same as the first half of the year; The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, but the core CPI excluding food and energy rose by 0.6%, with a 1.0% increase in September, expanding for five consecutive months.
From the perspective of international balance of payments, foreign trade has shown strong resilience, with the scale of goods import and export reaching a historic high for the same period, and the growth rate gradually recovering quarter by quarter. At the end of September, foreign exchange reserves continued to remain above 3.3 trillion US dollars, and the RMB exchange rate remained stable with an upward trend.
In addition, the main physical quantity indicators have also maintained stable growth. In the first three quarters, the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.6% year-on-year, while the turnover of goods and passengers increased by 4.8% and 4.4% respectively.
——The trend of solidly promoting high-quality development has not changed.
Since the beginning of this year, various aspects have developed new quality productive forces according to local conditions, promoted continuous optimization of economic structure, and orderly transformation of old and new driving forces.
In the first three quarters, the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size accounted for 35.9% and 16.7% of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, respectively. New progress has been made in the green and low-carbon transformation, with the proportion of non fossil energy consumption in the total energy consumption increasing by about 1.7 percentage points year-on-year. The new momentum of foreign trade is growing and expanding, and diversified markets have become a powerful support for export growth. The guarantee of people's livelihood is strong and effective, and the growth of per capita disposable income of residents in China is synchronized with economic growth. The relative income gap between urban and rural residents continues to narrow.
——The basic characteristics of strong economic resilience and great potential have not changed.
Since the beginning of this year, the adverse effects of external environmental changes have deepened, resulting in insufficient effective domestic demand and difficulties for some enterprises to operate, posing many challenges to promoting stable economic operation. In this situation, China's economy grew by 5.2% in the first three quarters, ranking among the top among major economies, fully demonstrating the ability of the Chinese economy to adapt to unstable and uncertain environments and its strong resilience to withstand pressure.
The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics stated that overall, although the external environment is complex and evolving, and economic development is facing many pressures, the "stable" pattern, "progressive" momentum, and "resilient" characteristics of China's economy have not changed, and maintaining a stable and progressive development trend has solid support.
The policy has shown remarkable effectiveness, stabilizing the economic operation and accumulating momentum for long-term development
Our country's economy cannot withstand pressure and steadily move forward without the proactive and precise implementation of macro policies. The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics believes that the effective implementation of more proactive macro policies not only stabilizes the current economic operation, but also accumulates momentum and energy for long-term development.
Promote the orderly release of consumption potential. This year, the relevant departments issued 300 billion yuan of ultra long term special treasury bond funds to local governments in four batches to support the expansion of consumer goods in exchange for new, and help release the consumer demand of residents. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumer expenditure to economic growth reached 53.5%, an increase of 9.0 percentage points from the previous year, continuing to play the role of the main engine of economic growth; The retail sales of household appliances and audiovisual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment related to units above the quota involved in the trade in policy have maintained double-digit growth; As of September 10th, the number of applications for car trade ins in China this year has exceeded 8.3 million, equivalent to over 30000 people applying for new cars every day.
Promote industrial optimization and upgrading. The combination of fiscal policies and timely introduction of supporting financial policies has promoted large-scale equipment upgrades and renovations. In the first three quarters, the investment in equipment and tools procurement increased by 14.0% year-on-year, driving a total investment growth of 2.0 percentage points and becoming an important pivot to drive investment. The investment in computer and office equipment manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing related to equipment updates increased by 7.4%, 11.8%, and 22.3%, respectively.
Promote the steady growth of new driving forces. The policy effects of "two new" and "two dual" continue to be transmitted to the production end, driving industries and product production related to equipment manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing, as well as promoting production expansion and technological iteration in fields such as green manufacturing and digital technology. In the first three quarters, the added value of industries such as lithium-ion battery manufacturing, shipbuilding and related equipment manufacturing, and motor manufacturing above designated size increased by 29.8%, 22.9%, and 17.1% year-on-year, respectively. The output of updated products such as CNC forging equipment and packaging special equipment increased by 11.7% and 26.0%, respectively. The output of replacement products such as new energy vehicles, electric bicycles, and tablets increased by 29.7%, 27.1%, and 9.5%, respectively.
Promote the orderly flow of economic cycles. Deepen the construction of a unified national market, comprehensively rectify "internal competition", promote the improvement of market competition order, and accelerate the flow of goods, personnel, funds and other factors. In September, the year-on-year decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers narrowed for two consecutive months; In the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry, the supplier delivery time index was 50.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase. In the first three quarters, the turnover of goods and passengers increased by 4.8% and 4.4% respectively year-on-year. At the same time, under the influence of stable and active capital market policies, the trading volume of stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 106.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, which is conducive to boosting social confidence.
There are many favorable conditions to achieve the expected annual goals
Preliminary calculations show that the GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter. The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics believes that this is mainly the result of the combined effects of complex and severe external environment, as well as significant domestic structural adjustment pressure. "Although the economic growth rate has declined in the third quarter, the trend of stable and progressive development of the economy has not changed
Looking at the growth level, the 4.8% economic growth rate in the third quarter is still significantly higher than most major economies. The total economic output in the third quarter reached 35.5 trillion yuan, exceeding the total economic output of the world's third largest economy for the whole year of 2024.
Looking at employment prices, the surveyed urban unemployment rate in the third quarter remained the same as the same period last year, the year-on-year increase in core CPI continued to expand, and the decline in PPI narrowed for two consecutive months. The overall employment situation remained stable, and the price operation improved to some extent.
Looking at the balance of payments, the total import and export of goods in the third quarter increased by 6.0% year-on-year, and foreign exchange reserves increased for two consecutive months, maintaining overall balance.
Looking at the quality of development, the trend of economic transformation and upgrading continues. In the third quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of added value in high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size was significantly faster than that of all industries; The added value of information transmission, software, and information technology services industry increased by 11.7%, accelerating by 1.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year.
The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics stated that there are many favorable conditions for achieving the expected annual goals in the next stage. From the development trend, the stable economic growth in the first three quarters has laid a good foundation for achieving the annual goals; From the perspective of development momentum, the accelerated cultivation of new quality productive forces will continue to create new growth points, and also help to hedge downward pressure and enhance upward momentum; From the perspective of development support, the sustained effectiveness of macroeconomic policies will safeguard the stable operation of the economy.
In addition, from the perspective of leading indicators and high-frequency indicators, positive factors are still accumulating. In September, the Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing industry rebounded for two consecutive months; In early October, the prices of some important industrial products in the circulation sector continued to rise, which is conducive to improving the profitability of enterprises; According to relevant departments' calculations, 888 million people traveled domestically during the National Day and Mid Autumn Festival holidays, and popular events such as mass sports events, concerts, and music festivals were highly anticipated. All of these demonstrate the resilience and vitality of our country's economy.
The achievement of the annual expected goals has a foundation and support, but it also requires arduous efforts. "The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics stated that it is necessary to effectively exert the effectiveness of various policies, coordinate short-term growth and medium - to long-term development, promote the smooth transformation of old and new driving forces, continue to deepen reforms in key areas, and continuously enhance the endogenous driving force of economic development.