透视中国经济“三季报”释放的重要信号

中国经济“三季报”20日最新出炉：前三季度，国内生产总值（GDP）1015036亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.2%。其中，三季度增长4.8%。

这些重要数据的背后透出了哪些信号？

信号一：中国经济延续稳中有进态势

前三季度，中国经济运行总体表现如何？

国家统计局新闻发言人用三个“没有变”作出评价——

“经济平稳运行的主基调没有变”“高质量发展扎实推进的态势没有变”“经济韧性强潜能大的基本特性没有变”。

看经济增长：

前三季度GDP同比增长5.2%，比上年全年和上年同期分别加快0.2、0.4个百分点；经济增量达39679亿元，同比多增1368亿元。

对中国这样超大体量的经济体而言，保持稳定发展已属不易，在各种风险挑战交织背景下仍体现了坚强韧性，则更显可贵。

再看就业物价：

前三季度，全国城镇调查失业率平均值为5.2%，与上半年持平；全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比略降0.1%，但扣除食品和能源的核心CPI上涨0.6%，其中9月上涨1.0%，涨幅连续5个月扩大。

最后看国际收支：

货物进出口规模创历史同期新高，增速逐季回升；9月末外汇储备继续保持在3.3万亿美元以上，人民币汇率稳中有升。

“放眼全球，5.2%的经济增长水平在主要经济体中名列前茅，中国始终是全球经济增长最稳定、最可靠的动力源。”国家统计局新闻发言人说。

不少人注意到，三季度GDP同比增长4.8%，增速比二季度回落0.4个百分点。

国家统计局新闻发言人表示，这主要是外部环境复杂严峻、国内结构调整压力较大等因素共同作用的结果。从国际看，三季度以来，个别国家滥施关税冲击全球经贸秩序，单边主义、保护主义盛行，国际经贸增长不稳定不确定性加大，发展面临的外部环境更趋复杂。从国内看，我国正处在经济结构调整关键期，新旧动能接续转换存在阵痛，一些长期积累的结构性问题有待化解，部分行业增势减缓客观上影响经济增速回落。

“尽管增速有所回落，但经济稳中有进发展态势没有变。从增长水平看，我国三季度4.8%的经济增速水平仍明显高于多数主要经济体。三季度经济总量达35.5万亿元，超过了全球第三大经济体2024年全年经济总量。”国家统计局新闻发言人说。

信号二：政策激活高质量发展新动能

今年以来，一系列宏观政策主动作为、精准发力，全方位扩大内需，因地制宜发展新质生产力，不断激活高质量发展新动能。

激活“主引擎”——

“前三季度，以旧换新等提振消费系列政策措施落地见效，消费新业态、新模式、新场景不断拓展，消费市场实现稳定增长。”国家统计局贸易外经统计司司长于建勋说。

今年，3000亿元超长期特别国债资金分四批向地方下达，支持消费品以旧换新加力扩围。前三季度，最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率达53.5%，比上年全年提升9.0个百分点，经济增长主引擎作用明显增强；截至9月10日，今年全国汽车以旧换新申请量已突破830万份，相当于每天有超3万人申请换新车。

大规模设备更新改造方面，今年财政政策打出组合拳，配套金融政策及时推出，前三季度设备工器具购置投资同比增长14.0%，拉动全部投资增长2.0个百分点。

积蓄“新动能”——

天问二号成功发射，全球首台原位可变径盾构机“变径一号”下线……今年以来，我国持续加大创新投入，众多科技领域实现突破。世界知识产权组织近期发布的报告显示，2025年我国创新指数首次跻身全球前十。

科技和产业融合创新持续深化，更多创新成果从“实验室”走到“生产线”，创新“势能”向经济“动能”不断转化。前三季度，规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长9.6%，其中，工业机器人、3D打印设备、工业控制计算机及系统产量分别增长29.8%、40.5%、98.0%。

人工智能、脑机接口等前沿技术超前布局，带动数字经济快速增长。前三季度，规模以上数字产品制造业增加值同比增长9.7%。

畅通“大循环”——

随着纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、综合整治“内卷式”竞争，市场竞争秩序得到改善，货物、人员、资金等要素流动加快。

9月份，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）同比降幅连续第2个月收窄。前三季度，货物、旅客周转量同比分别增长4.8%、4.4%；在稳定和活跃资本市场相关政策作用下，沪深两市股票成交额同比增长106.8%。

国家统计局新闻发言人表示，今年以来，更加积极有为的宏观政策有效实施，扩大内需、活跃资本市场、整治“内卷”等一系列政策发力显效，既为当前经济运行“稳底盘”，也为长远发展“蓄势增能”。

信号三：实现全年预期目标有基础有支撑

压力挑战之下，全年5%左右的经济增长预期目标能否顺利实现？

“展望下阶段，既要看到经济发展依然面临不少风险挑战，更要看到我国经济稳定发展的内在逻辑没有变，经济平稳运行的支撑条件也没有变，实现全年预期目标仍有较多有利条件。”国家统计局新闻发言人说。

发言人表示，前三季度经济增长5.2%，为实现全年主要目标奠定坚实基础。从发展动能看，以人工智能为代表的新质生产力加快向现实生产力转化，中国经济正在换上新的增长引擎。新质生产力发展将继续创造新的增长点，有助于对冲下行压力，增强上行动力。

下达第四批消费品以旧换新资金；加强“两重”项目组织调度；出台实施《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》……近期宏观调控进一步发力，为经济平稳运行保驾护航。

“我国有充足的政策空间、丰富的政策工具、常态化的政策储备，能够有效应对各类风险挑战。”国家统计局新闻发言人说。

先行指标和高频指标也持续透出积极信号——9月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）连续第2个月回升；10月上旬，流通领域一些重要工业品价格继续回升；国庆中秋假期国内出游8.88亿人次，体育赛事、演唱会、音乐节等人气十足……

“综合来看，实现全年预期目标有基础有支撑，但也需要付出艰苦努力。”国家统计局新闻发言人表示，要有效发挥各项政策效能，统筹好短期增长和中长期发展，推动新旧动能平稳转换，持续深化关键领域改革，不断提升经济发展内生动能。

译文：

Insight into the Important Signals Released by China's Third Quarter Economic Report

The latest "Third Quarter Report" of the Chinese economy was released on the 20th: In the first three quarters, the gross domestic product (GDP) was 1.015036 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. Among them, the growth rate in the third quarter was 4.8%.

What signals are hidden behind these important data?

Signal 1: China's economy continues to show a steady and progressive trend

How did the Chinese economy perform overall in the first three quarters?

The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics made an evaluation with three "unchanged" statements——

The main tone of stable economic operation has not changed, the trend of solidly promoting high-quality development has not changed, and the basic characteristics of strong economic resilience and great potential have not changed.

Looking at economic growth:

The GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points respectively compared to the same period last year; The economic increment reached 39679 billion yuan, an increase of 1368 billion yuan year-on-year.

For an economy as large as China, maintaining stable development is already not easy, and demonstrating resilience in the face of various risks and challenges is even more valuable.

Looking at employment prices again:

In the first three quarters, the average urban survey unemployment rate in China was 5.2%, unchanged from the first half of the year; The national consumer price index (CPI) slightly decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, but the core CPI excluding food and energy rose by 0.6%, with a 1.0% increase in September, expanding for five consecutive months.

Finally, let's take a look at the international balance of payments:

The scale of import and export of goods has reached a new historical high, and the growth rate has rebounded quarter by quarter; At the end of September, foreign exchange reserves continued to remain above 3.3 trillion US dollars, and the RMB exchange rate remained stable with an upward trend.

Looking at the world, China's 5.2% economic growth rate ranks among the top among major economies, and it has always been the most stable and reliable driving force for global economic growth, "said a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics.

Many people have noticed that the GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter.

The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics stated that this is mainly the result of the combined effects of complex and severe external environment, as well as significant pressure for domestic structural adjustment. From an international perspective, since the third quarter, some countries have imposed excessive tariffs, which have impacted the global economic and trade order. Unilateralism and protectionism have prevailed, and the instability and uncertainty of international economic and trade growth have increased. The external environment facing development has become more complex. From a domestic perspective, China is currently in a critical period of economic structural adjustment, with pains in the transition from old to new driving forces. Some long-standing structural problems need to be resolved, and the slowdown in growth in some industries objectively affects the economic growth rate.

Although the growth rate has slowed down, the trend of stable and progressive economic development has not changed. In terms of growth level, China's economic growth rate of 4.8% in the third quarter is still significantly higher than most major economies. The total economic output in the third quarter reached 35.5 trillion yuan, exceeding the total economic output of the world's third largest economy in 2024, "said a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics.

Signal 2: Policies activate new drivers of high-quality development

Since the beginning of this year, a series of macro policies have taken proactive and precise measures to expand domestic demand in all aspects, develop new quality productive forces according to local conditions, and continuously activate new driving forces for high-quality development.

Activate the 'Main Engine'——

In the first three quarters, a series of policies and measures such as trade in have been implemented to boost consumption, and new forms, models, and scenarios of consumption have continued to expand, achieving stable growth in the consumer market, "said Yu Jianxun, Director of the Trade and Economic Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics.

This year, 300 billion yuan of ultra long term special treasury bond funds were distributed to local governments in four batches to support the expansion of consumer goods in exchange for new. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 53.5%, an increase of 9.0 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a significant enhancement in the role of the main engine of economic growth; As of September 10th, the number of applications for car trade ins in China this year has exceeded 8.3 million, equivalent to over 30000 people applying for new cars every day.

In terms of large-scale equipment upgrades and renovations, this year's fiscal policy has employed a combination of measures, with timely introduction of supporting financial policies. In the first three quarters, investment in equipment and tools purchases increased by 14.0% year-on-year, driving a 2.0 percentage point increase in total investment.

Accumulate 'new momentum'——

Tianwen-2 was successfully launched, and the world's first in-situ variable diameter shield tunneling machine, "Variable Diameter No.1", was taken offline... Since the beginning of this year, China has continued to increase innovation investment and achieved breakthroughs in many scientific and technological fields. According to a recent report released by the World Intellectual Property Organization, China's innovation index will enter the top ten globally for the first time in 2025.

The integration and innovation of technology and industry continue to deepen, with more innovative achievements moving from the "laboratory" to the "production line", and the "potential energy" of innovation continuously transforming into the "driving force" of the economy. In the first three quarters, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.6% year-on-year, among which the production of industrial robots, 3D printing equipment, industrial control computers and systems increased by 29.8%, 40.5%, and 98.0% respectively.

The advanced layout of cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence and brain computer interfaces has driven the rapid growth of the digital economy. In the first three quarters, the added value of digital product manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 9.7% year-on-year.

Smooth the 'big cycle'——

With the deepening of the construction of a unified national market and the comprehensive rectification of "internal competition", the market competition order has been improved, and the flow of factors such as goods, personnel, and funds has accelerated.

In September, the year-on-year decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers narrowed for the second consecutive month. In the first three quarters, the turnover of goods and passengers increased by 4.8% and 4.4% respectively year-on-year; Under the influence of stable and active capital market policies, the trading volume of stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 106.8% year-on-year.

The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics stated that since the beginning of this year, more proactive and effective macro policies have been implemented, such as expanding domestic demand, activating the capital market, and rectifying "internal competition". A series of policies have shown remarkable effects, which not only stabilize the current economic operation, but also accumulate momentum and energy for long-term development.

Signal 3: Achieving the annual expected goals with foundation and support

Can the expected economic growth target of around 5% for the whole year be successfully achieved under pressure and challenges?

Looking ahead to the next stage, we should not only see that the economic development still faces many risks and challenges, but also recognize that the inherent logic of China's stable economic development has not changed, and the supporting conditions for stable economic operation have not changed. There are still many favorable conditions to achieve the annual expected goals, "said a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics.

The spokesperson stated that the economic growth in the first three quarters was 5.2%, laying a solid foundation for achieving the main annual goals. From the perspective of development momentum, new quality productivity represented by artificial intelligence is accelerating its transformation into real productivity, and the Chinese economy is switching to a new growth engine. The development of new quality productivity will continue to create new growth points, which will help hedge against downward pressure and enhance upward momentum.

Issue the fourth batch of funds for exchanging old for new consumer goods; Strengthen the organization and scheduling of "dual" projects; The introduction and implementation of the 'Several Policy Measures on Expanding Service Consumption'... Recently, macroeconomic regulation has been further strengthened to safeguard the stable operation of the economy.

China has sufficient policy space, rich policy tools, and normalized policy reserves, which can effectively respond to various risks and challenges, "said a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics.

Leading indicators and high-frequency indicators continue to show positive signals - in September, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry rebounded for the second consecutive month; In early October, the prices of some important industrial products in the circulation sector continued to rise; During the National Day and Mid Autumn Festival holidays, 888 million people traveled domestically, and sports events, concerts, music festivals, and other activities were highly popular

Overall, achieving the annual expected goals has a foundation and support, but it also requires arduous efforts. "The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics stated that it is necessary to effectively exert the effectiveness of various policies, coordinate short-term growth and medium - to long-term development, promote the smooth transformation of old and new driving forces, continue to deepen reforms in key areas, and continuously enhance the endogenous driving force of economic development.