IMF上调全球增长预期 警告关税削弱增长前景

新华社纽约10月14日电 （记者徐静 熊茂伶）国际货币基金组织（IMF）14日发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》，小幅上调今年世界经济增长预期。IMF指出，关税冲击正进一步削弱全球经济增长前景，世界经济仍较为脆弱。

报告预计，2025年世界经济将增长3.2%，较今年7月预测值上调0.2个百分点；2026年将增长3.1%，与7月预测值持平。

IMF强调，上调预期缘于进口商因美国关税政策而提前囤货、大多数国家努力维护全球贸易体系的开放与稳定等因素。当前，关税冲击正进一步削弱全球经济增长前景，贸易政策不确定性较高、保护主义措施不断升级、地缘政治紧张局势持续、财政脆弱性加剧等构成世界经济下行风险。

报告将新兴市场和发展中经济体今年经济增速较7月预测值上调0.1个百分点至4.2%，同时将发达经济体今年经济增速上调0.1个百分点至1.6%。

IMF指出，美国经济已显现出实质性放缓迹象。美国7月以来的就业数据远低于预期，新增就业岗位数量显著下滑，8月失业率升至近4年来新高。

IMF表示，各经济体应致力于确保债务可持续性，消除贸易政策不确定性，并加强合作以减少贸易和投资壁垒。

译文：

IMF raises global growth forecast, warns tariffs weaken growth prospects

New York, October 14 (Xinhua) -- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook report on the 14th, slightly raising its forecast for world economic growth this year. The IMF pointed out that tariff shocks are further weakening the global economic growth prospects, and the world economy remains relatively fragile.

The report predicts that the world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the forecast in July this year; In 2026, it is expected to grow by 3.1%, which is consistent with the forecast for July.

The IMF emphasized that the expected increase is due to factors such as importers hoarding goods in advance due to US tariff policies and most countries' efforts to maintain the openness and stability of the global trading system. Currently, the impact of tariffs is further weakening the global economic growth prospects, with high trade policy uncertainty, escalating protectionist measures, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and increasing fiscal fragility posing downside risks to the world economy.

The report raised the economic growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% compared to the forecast in July this year, while raising the economic growth rate of developed economies by 0.1 percentage points to 1.6% this year.

The IMF pointed out that the US economy has shown substantial signs of slowing down. The employment data in the United States since July has been much lower than expected, with a significant decline in the number of new job opportunities, and the unemployment rate in August reaching a new high in nearly four years.

The IMF stated that economies should strive to ensure debt sustainability, eliminate trade policy uncertainty, and strengthen cooperation to reduce trade and investment barriers.