全美商业经济协会调查显示，美国就业增长将依旧疲弱

近日，全美商业经济协会（NABE）调查显示，经济学家上调了今明两年美国经济的增长预期，但预计就业增长将依旧疲弱。受访经济学家预计，经通胀调整后的美国GDP今年将增长1.8%，高于6月预测的1.3%。

美联社报道，对经济和关税的不确定性促使零售商削减或推迟在分销中心打包订单、在商店为顾客服务以及在年度最重要销售季搭建节日装饰品的季节性工人的招聘计划。美国圣诞节公司计划招聘220名临时工，比往常提前近两个月开始招聘，CEO丹·卡斯特雷拉表示。去年，该公司在旺季期间雇用了300人。

报道还提出，零售商的招聘计划是美国假日购物季的第一个迹象，而今年美国就业市场失去了动力，部分原因是特朗普的贸易战产生了不确定性，令管理者在招聘决策上感到瘫痪。分析师也将密切关注消费者在零售商在接下来几个月因高关税成本而推高价格时的反应。

译文：

According to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics, employment growth in the United States will remain weak

Recently, a survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) showed that economists have raised their growth expectations for the US economy this year and next, but they expect employment growth to remain weak. The interviewed economists predict that the inflation adjusted US GDP will grow by 1.8% this year, higher than the 1.3% forecast in June.

The uncertainty surrounding the economy and tariffs has prompted retailers to cut or postpone recruitment plans for seasonal workers who pack orders at distribution centers, serve customers in stores, and build holiday decorations during the most important sales season of the year, according to the Associated Press. The American Christmas company plans to hire 220 temporary workers, starting recruitment nearly two months earlier than usual, "said CEO Dan Castellera. Last year, the company employed 300 people during the peak season.

The report also suggests that retailers' recruitment plans are the first sign of the US holiday shopping season, and this year the US job market has lost momentum, partly due to uncertainty caused by Trump's trade war, which has left managers feeling paralyzed in recruitment decisions. Analysts will also closely monitor consumers' reactions as retailers push up prices in the coming months due to high tariff costs.