港口格外冷清，账单更加沉重，美国圣诞树进口暴跌凸显关税之伤

随着圣诞节临近，美国消费者和企业正面临前所未有的供货挑战。“想买圣诞用品的消费者最好尽早出手。”美国最大人造圣诞树进口商之一的国民圣诞树公司首席执行官克里斯·巴特勒近日在接受美国CNBC网站采访时表示，由于关税带来的影响，圣诞树、彩灯、花环及其他节日装饰品库存将明显减少，“今年公司进口的商品比往年少了大约25%，供应肯定会紧张”。出现这一局面与美国政府的关税政策密切相关。

“8月同比下降58%，9月下降超70%”

每年第三季度本是美国圣诞用品进口的关键期，集装箱货轮会将来自全球的人造圣诞树、彩灯、花环等商品源源不断地运抵美国。但今年，美国港口却显得格外冷清。

据美国CNBC网站报道，进口数据追踪机构ImportGenius的数据显示，国民圣诞树公司的进口量大幅缩水。“与往年相比，国民圣诞树公司8月进口量同比下降58%，9月同比下降超70%。”该机构研究主管威廉·乔治表示，10月是国民圣诞树公司进口商品的最后一个关键月份，“但在进口旺季出现如此大幅的下滑，似乎预示着今年圣诞零售季的前景不容乐观”。

据巴特勒介绍，美国圣诞装饰销售的高峰通常集中在“黑色星期五”（即11月第四个星期四后开业的第一天），但他建议消费者不要等到那时才行动：“今年打算在市场上购买圣诞商品，要提前购买、尽早准备。”同时，由于关税成本增加，公司已将价格上调约10%。总的来看，大多数美国消费者无疑将面临更加高昂的“圣诞账单”。

供应链数据平台的记录显示，国民圣诞树公司超过60%的进口货物由中国企业负责，该公司 45%的生产基地也位于中国大陆。其他进口来源地包括柬埔寨（3%）以及越南、印度尼西亚等其他亚洲国家。巴特勒对美国CNBC网站坦言，企业也在考虑通过探索自动化及近岸生产等方式缓解压力，但现实是，在美国本土进行生产的成本过高，从经济角度看“行不通”。他举例说：“一棵在美国生产的圣诞树，价格可能是进口树的2.5至3倍。”

谁是关税的真正“埋单者”？

不仅仅是圣诞用品，数据显示，自美国关税实施以来，美国进口商品平均价格上涨约4%，而其国内产品价格上涨约2%。尤其是那些美国无法本土生产或来自承受高额关税国家的商品，如咖啡和土耳其商品，价格涨幅最大。亚马逊等电商平台上的商品也普遍涨价。

“究竟是谁在‘消化’关税？”路透社13日以此为题报道称。学术研究和企业调查显示，在美国关税政策实施初期，美国企业承担了主要成本，并将部分成本转嫁给消费者。哈佛大学教授阿尔贝托·卡瓦略表示：“大部分成本由美国企业承担，我们看到价格正逐步传导至消费者。”白宫虽然表示最终成本应由外国出口商承担，但现实情况是美国企业和消费者才是真正的“埋单者”。

高盛集团经济学家表示，由于企业纷纷上调价格，美国消费者预计将承担美国所实施关税成本的一半以上。据彭博社报道，高盛分析师在12日发给客户的研究报告中写道，到今年年底，美国消费者可能会承担55%的关税成本，美国企业承担22%；外国出口商则会通过多种方式吸收18%的关税成本，另有5%的成本或将被规避。

“未来几个月影响更加明显”

据路透社报道，美国消费者如果越来越难以应对物价上涨，对进口商品的需求可能会放缓。美国CNBC网站也指出，随着进入美国的产品减少，市场会出现可获得性和可负担性的问题，同时人们担心需求疲软。美国全国批发商分销商协会总裁兼首席执行官埃里克·霍普林表示：“实体零售商和当地五金店的订单已经减少了60%。”

“由于出口商、进口商和消费者为谁每月支付大约300亿美元的关税而争吵得不可开交，‘消化’这些关税被认为还需要数月的时间。”路透社报道称，这一切都为美国更高的通货膨胀埋下了伏笔。美联储新任理事斯蒂芬·米兰辩称，关税不会导致通胀。但据波士顿联邦储备银行的一项“粗略”计算预计，关税将把美国核心通胀率推高75个基点。

全球贸易同样受到影响。标普全球对全球企业采购经理的调查显示，截至7月，欧盟对美出口数据显示，同比下降4.4%；而在德国，8月对美出口同比降幅达20.1%。荷兰国际集团预计，未来两年欧盟对美商品出口将减少17%，这将导致欧盟GDP增长损失30个基点。荷兰国际集团经济学家鲁本·德维特表示：“美国关税的预期影响尚未完全显现，我们预计未来几个月这些影响将更加明显。”

译文：

The port is particularly deserted, bills are even heavier, and the sharp drop in imports of Christmas trees in the United States highlights the damage of tariffs

As Christmas approaches, American consumers and businesses are facing unprecedented supply challenges. Consumers who want to buy Christmas products should make an early purchase, "said Chris Butler, CEO of National Christmas Tree Company, one of the largest importers of artificial Christmas trees in the United States, in a recent interview with CNBC. Due to the impact of tariffs, inventory of Christmas trees, lights, wreaths, and other holiday decorations will significantly decrease." This year, the company's imports are about 25% less than in previous years, and supply will definitely be tight. The emergence of this situation is closely related to the tariff policy of the US government.

August decreased by 58% year-on-year, and September decreased by over 70%

The third quarter of each year is a critical period for importing Christmas products into the United States, and container ships continuously transport artificial Christmas trees, lights, wreaths, and other goods from around the world to the United States. But this year, American ports have appeared particularly deserted.

According to CNBC's website, data from ImportGenius, an import data tracking agency, shows that the import volume of the National Christmas Tree Company has significantly decreased. Compared with previous years, the import volume of National Christmas Tree Company in August decreased by 58% year-on-year, and in September it decreased by more than 70% year-on-year, "said William George, the research director of the institution. October is the last critical month for National Christmas Tree Company's imported goods," but such a significant decline during the import peak season seems to indicate that the prospects for this year's Christmas retail season are not optimistic.

According to Butler, the peak of Christmas decoration sales in the United States is usually concentrated on "Black Friday" (the first day of opening after the fourth Thursday in November), but he advises consumers not to wait until then to take action: "If you plan to buy Christmas products in the market this year, buy in advance and prepare early." At the same time, due to the increase in tariff costs, the company has raised prices by about 10%. Overall, most American consumers will undoubtedly face even higher 'Christmas bills'.

According to the records of the supply chain data platform, Chinese enterprises are responsible for more than 60% of the imported goods of National Christmas Tree Company, and 45% of its production base is also located in Chinese Mainland. Other sources of imports include Cambodia (3%) and other Asian countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia. Butler admitted to CNBC that companies are also considering ways to alleviate pressure through exploring automation and nearshore production, but the reality is that the cost of production in the United States is too high and "not feasible" from an economic perspective. He gave an example: "A Christmas tree produced in the United States may cost 2.5 to 3 times more than an imported tree

Who is the true "payer" of tariffs?

Not only Christmas supplies, data shows that since the implementation of US tariffs, the average price of imported goods in the US has increased by about 4%, while the price of domestic products has increased by about 2%. In particular, those goods that the United States cannot produce locally or come from countries with high tariffs, such as coffee and Türkiye, have seen the biggest price increases. Products on e-commerce platforms such as Amazon have also generally increased in price.

Who is' digesting 'tariffs? "Reuters reported on the 13th under this topic. Academic research and business surveys have shown that during the initial implementation of US tariff policies, American companies bore the main costs and passed on some of them to consumers. Harvard University professor Alberto Carvalho said, "Most of the costs are borne by American companies, and we are seeing prices gradually passing on to consumers." Although the White House has stated that the final costs should be borne by foreign exporters, the reality is that American companies and consumers are the real "payers".

Goldman Sachs economists say that as companies raise prices, American consumers are expected to bear more than half of the cost of tariffs imposed by the United States. According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a research report sent to clients on the 12th that by the end of this year, American consumers may bear 55% of the tariff costs, while American companies will bear 22%; Foreign exporters will absorb 18% of tariff costs through various means, while another 5% of costs may be avoided.

The impact will become more apparent in the coming months

According to Reuters, if American consumers find it increasingly difficult to cope with rising prices, their demand for imported goods may slow down. The CNBC website also pointed out that as the number of products entering the United States decreases, the market will face issues of availability and affordability, while people are concerned about weak demand. Eric Hoplin, President and CEO of the National Association of Wholesalers and Distributors, said, "Orders from physical retailers and local hardware stores have decreased by 60%

Due to the heated debate among exporters, importers, and consumers over who pays approximately $30 billion in tariffs per month, it is believed that it will take several months to 'digest' these tariffs. Reuters reported that all of this has laid the groundwork for higher inflation in the United States. Stephen Milan, the newly appointed governor of the Federal Reserve, argues that tariffs will not lead to inflation. But according to a rough calculation by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, tariffs are expected to push up the core inflation rate in the United States by 75 basis points.

Global trade is also affected. According to a survey conducted by S&P Global on global corporate procurement managers, as of July, EU exports to the United States showed a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%; In Germany, exports to the United States decreased by 20.1% year-on-year in August. Dutch International Group predicts that EU exports of goods to the US will decrease by 17% in the next two years, resulting in a 30 basis point loss in EU GDP growth. Ruben DeWitt, an economist at Dutch International Group, said, "The expected impact of US tariffs has not yet fully manifested, and we expect these effects to become more apparent in the coming months