德国联邦统计局数据显示：今年前8月，中国再成德最大贸易国

受美国关税政策影响，国家间的贸易动态正发生显著变化。据路透社22日报道，德国联邦统计局日前发布的初步数据显示，今年前8个月，德国与中国的贸易额超越德国与美国的贸易额，中国重新成为德国最大贸易伙伴。德国批发和外贸协会主席迪尔克·扬杜拉表示，美国关税政策是导致德国对美出口下降的重要原因。而荷兰商业银行宏观研究全球主管布热斯基分析认为，鉴于持续的关税威胁和欧元走强，德国对美出口短期内不太可能反弹。

关税影响德国对美出口

根据路透社的计算，1月至8月德国与中国贸易额达1634亿欧元，而与美国的贸易额为1628亿欧元。分析人士将该变化归因于美国实施的关税政策。扬杜拉表示，美国对汽车、机械和化学品等传统德国出口商品的需求有所下降。

德新社此前报道称，美国政府的激进关税政策正日益成为德国出口导向型经济的负担。据路透社报道，今年前8个月德国对美出口额同比下降7.4%，至996亿欧元。8月份对美出口同比大跌23.5%。德国联邦统计局数据显示，这已是连续第5个月出现环比下降。报道分析认为，8月份的跌幅表明这一趋势正在加速。

从具体领域来看，德国联邦统计局之前公布的数据显示，今年4月和5月期间，德国汽车对美出口同比下降23.5%，原因是美国自4月初之后对进口汽车加征了高达25%的额外关税。悲观情绪目前也在机械工程行业内占据主导地位。德新社10月初援引德国机械设备制造业联合会公布的最新调查结果报道称，在877家受访企业中，有大约1/3的企业将当前形势评为“糟糕”或“非常糟糕”。这或将延续该行业的裁员趋势。

德国《商报》22日报道称，虽然医药产品、信息技术和电子产品前8个月的出口略有增长，但仍然无法弥补核心行业的损失。

“中德经贸关系存在很强的互补性和密切联系”

中国重新成为德国最大贸易伙伴受到国外媒体广泛关注。根据德国外交部官网公布的官方数据，2024年中国以约2460亿欧元的贸易额成为德国第二大贸易伙伴，而在2016至2023年间，中国一直是德国最大贸易伙伴。今年前8个月，德国从中国的进口额出现8.3%的涨幅，达到1088亿欧元。德国电视一台近日报道称，9月中国对德国出口又增长10.9%。

不过，有分析人士对德国从中国进口增长的现象持消极态度，认为这增加了德国对中国的依赖。但也有专家认为这背后有着多种影响因素。德国电视一台援引中德贸易人士的分析称，相较于德国从中国的进口额，中国从德国进口较少与德企在中国深度本地化、实现在地产销有关。“这一现象遍布所有行业，尤其在汽车和机械制造领域突出。”针对欧盟内部想通过提高关税应对竞争的声音，德新社援引扬杜拉的话报道称，高关税将推高产品价格并最终损害各方利益，他呼吁：“欧洲需要投资韧性与多元化，而非构筑内部市场壁垒。”

中国现代国际关系研究院研究员孙恪勤23日接受《环球时报》记者采访时表示，中德经贸关系快速发展并达到当前的庞大规模，说明双方经贸关系存在很强的互补性和密切联系。他表示，中德在市场、资本、研发、原材料、产业链等方面互补性强，尤其是在汽车、机械设备、化工医药、电子电气等领域有着很强的互补性。未来，传统领域由于已形成较强的产业链合作，依旧是中德经贸合作的重要领域。与此同时，两国在绿色转型、服务贸易、智能制造、数字化等领域合作前景广阔。

可持续好转迹象未出现

总部位于慕尼黑的Ifo研究所9月最新的调查显示，德国出口行业对前景的信心与8月相比明显乐观。“然而，可持续好转的迹象尚未出现，”该机构调查负责人克劳斯·沃尔拉贝表示。根据德国联邦统计局的初步数据，这个欧洲最大经济体8月向海外出口商品总值1297亿欧元，环比下降0.5%，同比下降0.7%。

德新社报道称，过去两年，德国经济产出持续萎缩，联邦政府与领先经济研究机构对今年经济增长预期仅为0.2%。虽然对明年的预期相对乐观，国内生产总值预计将增长1.3%，但这一经济复苏希望并非依托海外需求，而是基于道路轨交等基础设施及国防领域的数十亿投资将拉动内需。

孙恪勤分析认为，德国经济疲软原因是多方面的，既有俄乌冲突带来的高能源成本导致的能源密集型产业产量下降，也有国际竞争加剧削弱了德企相对优势地位，还有美国贸易保护主义政策对德国作为开放经济体构成的严重威胁。  孙恪勤进一步表示，德国经济要想摆脱内外压力下发展疲软的困局，不能不重视与中国的经贸关系，今年中德贸易额可能超过德美贸易额显示出中德经贸关系的互补性和合作韧性。未来，要保证健康发展中德经贸关系，必须防止地缘政治干扰。

译文：

According to data from the German Federal Statistical Office, China became Germany's largest trading country again in the first eight months of this year

The trade dynamics between countries are undergoing significant changes due to the impact of US tariff policies. According to Reuters on the 22nd, preliminary data released by the German Federal Statistical Office shows that in the first eight months of this year, the trade volume between Germany and China surpassed that between Germany and the United States, and China has once again become Germany's largest trading partner. Dirk Yandula, President of the German Wholesale and Foreign Trade Association, stated that the US tariff policy is an important reason for the decline in Germany's exports to the US. According to Brzewski, Global Head of Macro Research at Dutch Commercial Bank, given the ongoing threat of tariffs and the strengthening of the euro, it is unlikely that Germany's exports to the United States will rebound in the short term.

Tariffs affect Germany's exports to the United States

According to Reuters calculations, the trade volume between Germany and China from January to August reached 163.4 billion euros, while the trade volume with the United States was 162.8 billion euros. Analysts attribute the change to the tariff policies implemented by the United States. Yangdula said that the demand for traditional German export goods such as cars, machinery, and chemicals in the United States has declined.

Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported earlier that the aggressive tariff policy of the US government is increasingly becoming a burden on Germany's export-oriented economy. According to Reuters, Germany's exports to the United States in the first eight months of this year decreased by 7.4% year-on-year to 99.6 billion euros. In August, exports to the United States plummeted by 23.5% year-on-year. According to data from the German Federal Statistical Office, this is the fifth consecutive month of month on month decline. The analysis of the report suggests that the decline in August indicates that this trend is accelerating.

From a specific perspective, data previously released by the German Federal Statistical Office showed that German car exports to the United States decreased by 23.5% year-on-year between April and May this year, due to the additional tariffs of up to 25% imposed by the United States on imported cars since early April. Pessimism currently dominates in the mechanical engineering industry. Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported in early October, citing the latest survey results released by the German Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing Federation, that about 1/3 of the 877 interviewed enterprises rated the current situation as "bad" or "very bad". This may continue the trend of layoffs in the industry.

According to the German newspaper "Handelsblatt" on the 22nd, although exports of pharmaceutical products, information technology, and electronic products have slightly increased in the first 8 months, they still cannot make up for the losses in core industries.

There is a strong complementarity and close connection in the economic and trade relations between China and Germany

China's re emergence as Germany's largest trading partner has attracted widespread attention from foreign media. According to official data released on the website of the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China will become Germany's second largest trading partner with a trade volume of approximately 246 billion euros in 2024, and has been Germany's largest trading partner from 2016 to 2023. In the first eight months of this year, Germany's imports from China increased by 8.3%, reaching 108.8 billion euros. German television channel One recently reported that China's exports to Germany increased by 10.9% in September.

However, some analysts hold a negative attitude towards the phenomenon of Germany's increasing imports from China, believing that it has increased Germany's dependence on China. But some experts believe that there are multiple influencing factors behind this. According to an analysis by a Sino German trade expert cited by German television, compared to Germany's imports from China, China's lower imports from Germany are related to German companies deeply localizing and achieving local production and sales in China. "This phenomenon is widespread in all industries, especially in the field of automobile and machinery manufacturing." In response to the voice within the EU that wants to respond to competition by raising tariffs, Deutsche Presse-Agentur quoted Jandulla as saying that high tariffs will push up product prices and ultimately harm the interests of all parties. He called: "Europe needs investment resilience and diversification, rather than building internal market barriers."

Sun Keqin, a researcher at the China Institute of Modern International Relations, stated in an interview with Global Times on the 23rd that the rapid development of Sino German economic and trade relations and their current massive scale indicate strong complementarity and close ties between the two sides. He stated that China and Germany have strong complementarity in markets, capital, research and development, raw materials, industrial chains, and other areas, especially in the fields of automobiles, machinery and equipment, chemical and pharmaceutical industries, and electronic and electrical industries. In the future, traditional fields will continue to be an important area of Sino German economic and trade cooperation due to the strong industrial chain cooperation that has been formed. At the same time, the two countries have broad prospects for cooperation in areas such as green transformation, service trade, intelligent manufacturing, and digitization.

There are no signs of sustainable improvement

The latest survey from Ifo Research Institute, headquartered in Munich, in September showed that the confidence of the German export industry in the outlook is significantly optimistic compared to August. However, signs of sustainable improvement have not yet emerged, "said Klaus Walrabe, the head of the agency's investigation. According to preliminary data from the German Federal Statistical Office, the total value of goods exported overseas by Europe's largest economy in August was 129.7 billion euros, a decrease of 0.5% month on month and 0.7% year-on-year.

Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported that in the past two years, Germany's economic output has continued to shrink, and the federal government and leading economic research institutions expect economic growth of only 0.2% this year. Although the expectation for next year is relatively optimistic, with GDP expected to grow by 1.3%, this economic recovery is not based on overseas demand, but on billions of investments in infrastructure such as roads and rail transit, as well as in the defense sector, which will drive domestic demand.

Sun Keqin believes that the reasons for Germany's economic weakness are multifaceted, including the decline in the output of energy intensive industries caused by the high energy costs brought about by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the weakening of the comparative advantage of German enterprises due to the intensification of international competition, and the serious threat posed by the U.S. trade protectionism policy to Germany as an open economy. Sun Keqin further stated that in order for the German economy to break free from the sluggish development under internal and external pressures, it cannot ignore the importance of its economic and trade relations with China. This year, the trade volume between China and Germany may exceed that between Germany and the United States, demonstrating the complementarity and resilience of the economic and trade relationship between China and Germany. In the future, to ensure the healthy development of Sino German economic and trade relations, it is necessary to prevent geopolitical interference.