三个关键词，看我国外贸何以量质齐升

三季度是全年承上启下的关键节点，顶压前行的外贸，走势如何颇受关注。海关总署10月13日发布的数据显示，今年前三季度，我国货物贸易进出口总值33.61万亿元，同比增长4%，比前8个月加快0.5个百分点。

“我国外贸在复杂的外部环境下延续了稳中向好的发展势头。”海关总署副署长王军在当天国新办举行的新闻发布会上说，总的看，前三季度，各地各部门攻坚克难、努力拼搏，广大外贸企业积极应变、开拓创新，我国外贸韧性彰显、结构优化，实现了量质齐升。

稳中向好的韧性从何而来？量质齐升的支撑因素有哪些？对四季度外贸走势有何预判？海关总署相关负责同志对此进行了解读和回应。

关键词一：底气

前三季度我国进出口实现逆势增长，展现较强韧性，首先是底气充沛。

“有底气，主要体现在外贸大盘稳。”王军说，从国际数据看，今年前7个月，我国进出口占全球货物贸易总值的比重为11.8%，继续保持全球货物贸易第一大国地位。

从我国外贸数据看，进出口整体增速逐季加快。从一、二季度分别增长1.3%、4.5%，到三季度增长6%，我国进出口已连续8个季度实现同比增长。与此同时，三个季度进出口规模均在10万亿元以上，保持了历史较高水平。其中，9月当月进出口4.04万亿元，同比增长8%，增速创年内单月新高。

进、出口分开，前三季度我国出口19.95万亿元，同比增速达到7.1%，连续8个季度保持增长；尽管同期进口同比下降0.2%，弱于出口，但降幅相比前8个月收窄1个百分点，表明随着提振消费专项行动持续发力，国内需求正在改善。

此外，底气还源自外贸大省挑大梁的作用持续发挥。前三季度，广东、江苏、浙江、上海、山东5省市进出口合计增长5.2%，对全国进出口增长的贡献超过八成。

关键词二：朝气

“有朝气，主要体现在增长动能新。”王军表示，随着新质生产力不断发展，重点产业提质升级，我国出口产品的结构不断优化创新。

据海关统计，前三季度，我国出口高技术产品同比增长11.9%，对同期整体出口增长贡献率超三成，其中，我国制造的工业机器人增长54.9%，不断走俏国际市场，风电出海跑出“加速度”，“新三样”产品、铁道电力机车等绿色产品增速均达到两位数。

当传统文化“牵手”中国制造，“老手艺”焕发新活力。前三季度，我国出口的龙舟、木雕、剪纸等非遗产品加入当代潮流元素，在海外广受欢迎，品质不断升级的国潮花灯、盲盒公仔等国货潮品销往全球200多个国家和地区。

作为贸易新业态，跨境电商极大便利了国内外的消费者，已经成为拉动外贸增长的新动能。据海关总署统计分析司司长吕大良介绍，从出口商品看，主要是服饰鞋包及珠宝配饰、数码产品及配件、家用办公电器及配件，进口商品主要是美妆及洗护用品、食品生鲜、医药保健品及医疗器具。

当天发布的上半年跨境电商进出口正式数据显示，今年上半年，我国跨境电商进出口1.37万亿元，同比增长10.3%，占同期我国进出口总值的6.3%，比去年同期提升0.4个百分点。与此同时，根据初步测算，前三季度，我国跨境电商进出口约2.06万亿元，增长6.4%。

关键词三：锐气

有锐气，主要体现在外贸主体迎难而上、锐意进取。前三季度，我国有进出口实绩的外贸经营主体首次达到了70万家，已超过去年全年的总量。中国海关贸易景气调查最新结果显示，出口企业信心指数连续5个月回升，进口企业也连续3个月在回升。

凭借这股不惧逆风、敢于开拓的锐气，我国外贸“朋友圈”不断扩大。国际数据显示，今年前7个月，我国是全球166个国家和地区的前三大贸易伙伴，较去年同期增加14个。

此外，前三季度，我国对共建“一带一路”国家进出口17.37万亿元，同比增长6.2%，占进出口总值的51.7%；对东盟、拉美、非洲、中亚等进出口分别增长9.6%、3.9%、19.5%和16.7%；对亚太经合组织（APEC）其他经济体进出口增长2%。

当前外部环境依然严峻复杂，经济全球化进程遭遇“逆风逆流”，多个国际组织指出贸易政策的不确定性成为制约世界经济发展的主要因素，叠加去年基数较高等客观因素，四季度我国稳定外贸发展仍然需要付出艰苦努力。

“我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，超大规模市场和完整产业体系的优势突出，进出口保持韧性和活力，这些都将为下一阶段外贸稳定发展提供支撑。”王军说。

译文：

Three key words, how can China's foreign trade improve both quantity and quality
The third quarter is a crucial node for the whole year, which serves as a bridge between the past and the future. The trend of foreign trade, which is pushing forward, is highly anticipated. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on October 13th, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports in the first three quarters of this year was 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, which is 0.5 percentage points faster than the previous eight months.

In the complex external environment, China's foreign trade has continued to develop steadily and steadily, "said Wang Jun, Deputy Director General of the General Administration of Customs, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on the same day. Overall, in the first three quarters, various regions and departments have overcome difficulties and worked hard, and the vast number of foreign trade enterprises have actively adapted and innovated. China's foreign trade resilience has been demonstrated, the structure has been optimized, and both quantity and quality have been improved.

Where does the resilience of stability and improvement come from? What are the supporting factors for the simultaneous improvement of quantity and quality? What are your predictions for the foreign trade trend in the fourth quarter? The relevant officials of the General Administration of Customs have interpreted and responded to this.

Keyword 1: Confidence

In the first three quarters, China's imports and exports achieved counter trend growth, demonstrating strong resilience, primarily due to ample confidence.

Having confidence is mainly reflected in the stability of the foreign trade market, "said Wang Jun. According to international data, in the first seven months of this year, China's imports and exports accounted for 11.8% of the global total value of goods trade, continuing to maintain its position as the world's largest country in goods trade.

From China's foreign trade data, the overall growth rate of imports and exports is accelerating quarter by quarter. From a growth of 1.3% and 4.5% in the first and second quarters respectively, to a growth of 6% in the third quarter, China's imports and exports have achieved year-on-year growth for eight consecutive quarters. At the same time, the import and export scale for the three quarters remained above 10 trillion yuan, maintaining a historically high level. Among them, the import and export volume in September was 4.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and the growth rate reached a new high in a single month of the year.

Separating imports and exports, China's exports reached 1.995 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.1%, maintaining growth for eight consecutive quarters; Although imports decreased by 0.2% year-on-year during the same period, weaker than exports, the decline narrowed by 1 percentage point compared to the previous 8 months, indicating that domestic demand is improving with the continued efforts of the special action to boost consumption.

In addition, the confidence also comes from the sustained role of foreign trade provinces as the backbone. In the first three quarters, the total import and export of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Shandong provinces and cities increased by 5.2%, contributing more than 80% to the national import and export growth.

Keyword 2: Vitality

Having vitality is mainly reflected in the new growth momentum, "Wang Jun said. With the continuous development of new quality productivity and the upgrading of key industries, the structure of China's export products is constantly optimized and innovated.

According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters, China's exports of high-tech products increased by 11.9% year-on-year, contributing more than 30% to the overall export growth during the same period. Among them, industrial robots manufactured in China increased by 54.9%, constantly becoming popular in the international market. Wind power has accelerated its overseas expansion, and green products such as "new three types" products and railway electric locomotives have achieved double-digit growth rates.

When traditional culture "holds hands" with Chinese manufacturing, "old crafts" are revitalized. In the first three quarters, China's exports of intangible cultural heritage products such as Loong Boat, wood carving, Paper Cuttings and so on joined the contemporary trend element, and were widely popular overseas. China-Chic flower lanterns, blind box dolls and other domestic fashion products with constantly upgraded quality were sold to more than 200 countries and regions around the world.

As a new form of trade, cross-border e-commerce has greatly facilitated consumers both domestically and internationally, and has become a new driving force for foreign trade growth. According to Lv Daliang, Director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, in terms of exported goods, the main ones are clothing, shoes, bags, jewelry accessories, digital products and accessories, household and office appliances and accessories, while imported goods mainly include beauty and toiletries, fresh food, medical and health products, and medical equipment.

The official data on cross-border e-commerce imports and exports for the first half of the year released on the same day showed that in the first half of this year, China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports amounted to 1.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, accounting for 6.3% of China's total import and export value during the same period, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, according to preliminary estimates, China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports in the first three quarters amounted to approximately 2.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.4%.

Keyword 3: Ruiqi

Having sharpness is mainly reflected in the fact that foreign trade entities face difficulties with determination and forge ahead. In the first three quarters, the number of foreign trade entities with import and export performance in China reached 700000 for the first time, exceeding the total for the whole of last year. The latest results of the China Customs Trade Prosperity Survey show that the confidence index of export enterprises has rebounded for five consecutive months, and import enterprises have also rebounded for three consecutive months.

With this fearless and pioneering spirit, China's foreign trade "circle of friends" continues to expand. International data shows that in the first seven months of this year, China was among the top three trading partners of 166 countries and regions worldwide, an increase of 14 compared to the same period last year.

In addition, in the first three quarters, China's import and export to countries jointly building the "the Belt and Road" reached 17.37 trillion yuan, up 6.2% year on year, accounting for 51.7% of the total import and export value; Imports and exports to ASEAN, Latin America, Africa, Central Asia, and other regions increased by 9.6%, 3.9%, 19.5%, and 16.7% respectively; The import and export of other economies in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) increased by 2%.

The current external environment is still severe and complex, and the process of economic globalization is facing "headwinds and reversals". Multiple international organizations have pointed out that the uncertainty of trade policies has become the main factor restricting the development of the world economy. Coupled with objective factors such as last year's high base, China still needs to make arduous efforts to stabilize its foreign trade development in the fourth quarter.

Our country's economic foundation is stable, with many advantages, strong resilience, and great potential. The supporting conditions and basic trends for long-term improvement have not changed. The advantages of a super large market and a complete industrial system are prominent, and imports and exports maintain resilience and vitality. All of these will provide support for the stable development of foreign trade in the next stage, "said Wang Jun.