Is the Arctic shipping volume reaching a new high and the US concerned about losing its voice?

Editor's note: The turbulent situation in the Middle East and the melting of polar ice are working together to shift the focus of global shipping towards the Arctic. At the same time, the accelerated navigation of the Arctic route has attracted "special attention" from some Western countries, among which there are concerns in the US public opinion. Experts believe that some people in the United States and the West do not want to see the Arctic shipping route rise in global maritime status, due to the fear of "Russian control" and the fear of losing voice in the global maritime market. The official normalization of the operation of the China Europe Arctic Express by Chinese companies is considered an important symbol of the transition from trial shipping to commercialization in Arctic shipping.

Record breaking shipping volume

Recently, South Korea completed the first trial voyage of a container ship to and from Europe via the Arctic route. According to the Seoul News on August 11th, the South Korean cargo ship "Panxing Akro" departed from Busan on August 22nd, docked at ports such as Felixstowe in the UK, Rotterdam in the Netherlands, and Gdansk in Poland via the Arctic route, and returned to Busan on October 11th. During this voyage, the one-way journey from Busan to Rotterdam took 22 days, which is 8 to 12 days shorter than the route through the Suez Canal. On the 12th, South Korean Minister of Marine and Fisheries, Hwang Jong woo, stated during the National Assembly's political inspection that he will carefully analyze the results of this sea trial, accumulate experience and data, and prepare for next year's sea trial plan. The Ministry of Marine Fisheries aims to open regular service routes by 2030 and strive to achieve economies of scale around 2035.
The shipping volume of the Arctic route has reached a record level by 2026. Given the turbulent situation in the Middle East, many Asian countries have chosen this route to sail towards the European market. The Financial Times recently cited data from Lloyd's Maritime Data, a UK based data company, showing that the number of voyages passing through the Arctic route reached 133 in September this year, an increase of 46% from August and more than four times that of the same period in 2022. Taking the Chinese container ship "Burj Khalifa" as an example, the ship departed from Qingdao in September and arrived at Felixstowe Port in the UK via the Arctic route, taking only 24 days. However, it usually takes more than 40 days to bypass the Suez Canal or Cape of Good Hope. On September 27th, another Chinese cargo ship also sailed along the route from Ningbo to Felixstowe.
According to a report by Russian news website on October 8th, citing Alexei Likhachev, the President of the Russian Atomic Energy Agency, Russia and India are about to reach an agreement on Arctic shipping cooperation, and the two countries may sign an agreement in the future to determine the exact quantity of goods transported by India through the route. Alexei Zubetz, director of the Russian Institute of Social and Economic Research, said that it can be expected that Asian countries' interest in this waterway will continue to increase in the future.
The Russian newspaper "Izvestia" reported that South Korea's successful navigation of the Arctic route may be seen by Japan as a reason to reconsider its logistics strategy to avoid losing competitiveness compared to neighboring countries. For Vietnam and Malaysia, known as the 'new factories of Asia', whose economies rely on exporting electronics, semiconductors, and textiles to Europe, the tense situation in the Middle East has affected the transportation safety of both countries. For these two countries, the Arctic shipping route provides another possibility for safe transportation.
Xu Kai, Director and Chief Information Officer of the Shipping Information Research Institute at the Shanghai International Shipping Research Center, analyzed to Global Times reporters that the Arctic shipping route has significant comparative advantages in terms of timeliness and cost during seasonal window periods. Chinese and South Korean ships pass through the Northeast Passage of the Arctic route to the UK, which is about half shorter than the traditional Suez route. Against the backdrop of increasingly sensitive carbon costs, the single voyage carbon dioxide emissions on the Arctic route have been reduced by about 50%, and the low-temperature environment throughout the journey is more friendly to thermal sensitive goods such as energy storage cabinets, power batteries, and photovoltaic modules.

Challenging the Western led global maritime rights landscape

According to the Financial Times, nearly half of the Arctic shipping routes are currently completed by ships flying the Russian flag. The route is divided into 28 segments, and the regulatory agency under the Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation is responsible for issuing navigation permits for the region and developing different navigation guidelines based on ice conditions at different times of the year.
This situation has attracted the attention of some Western shipping agencies and organizations. The Financial Times reported, citing the analysis of Roman Tremblay, Executive Director of the French Tala Marine Foundation, that "in the future, it will not only be Russian and Chinese shipping companies using this shipping route... If the goods we purchase need to be transported through this route, the danger to us will increase
Arctic shipping may have entered a new era, but there are also geopolitical and environmental risks, "NBC recently said. Some allies of the United States have begun to choose the Arctic route for commercial navigation, which means cooperating with Russia. Klaus Doz, a professor of geopolitics at Middlesex University in London, said that "if Russia wants to make the Arctic shipping route more attractive, it must reduce risks by providing reliable escort, a stable legal system, and regular maritime insurance. According to reports, the Arctic shipping route has not yet received support from major Western shipping companies, including Dafei Shipping, Mediterranean Shipping, and Hapag Lloyd. Major European shipping companies have stated that their vessels will avoid the Arctic shipping route, citing concerns about "exacerbating environmental damage". An article by the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace, a US think tank, claims that Russia's control over the route has exceeded the limits allowed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
The reason why the United States is concerned about the development of the Arctic shipping route is that this promising route is not under the control of the United States, "the Russian newspaper" Izvestia "quoted Glenn Dyson, a political scientist and professor at Southeast University in Norway, as analyzing that" the Arctic shipping route may be faster and cheaper than other transportation routes, and this is a new route that the United States cannot control, which is why they are concerned.
At present, some Western countries are showing 'sea power anxiety' in the face of the Arctic shipping route, which is actually a concern about the 'loss of rule making power', "Xu Kai analyzed to Global Times reporters. Some Western media interpret the trial voyage of the Arctic shipping route by Asian countries such as China and South Korea as' choosing the route under Russian control ', which reflects the unsuitability of traditional sea power thinking to the emerging shipping pattern. In the past decade, the freight volume through the Arctic shipping route has increased nearly tenfold. For the United States, this means a core trade route connecting Asia and Europe, with key links such as rules of passage, ice breaking services, navigation meteorology, and port access dominated by a country that has a profound strategic competitive relationship with it.
Xu Kai stated that the global ocean governance and maritime rights pattern dominated by the West for centuries mainly relies on four cornerstones: firstly, the international maritime legal system centered on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Secondly, an international technical regulatory system centered around the International Maritime Organization. Thirdly, a shipping finance and risk pricing system centered around the London insurance market and the International P&I Association Group. Fourthly, the logic of "maritime power trade control" based on Mahan's theory of maritime power. The United States has transformed this theory into a realistic maritime power layout by controlling the Panama Canal, maintaining a military presence in the Strait of Malacca, and influencing the policy of passage through the Suez Canal. The rise of the Arctic shipping route is posing structural challenges to the four cornerstones mentioned above.

The weekly operation of Chinese enterprises is an important symbol of the commercialization of Arctic shipping

The Global Times reporter learned from Ningbo Customs that the China Europe Arctic container shipping route has officially entered a new stage of weekly operation during the summer navigation season. As of early October, the China Europe Arctic Express route has steadily shipped 8 flights, with a total of 7761 standard containers of goods shipped. Since the official upgrade to stable weekly operation on August 15th this year, the cumulative export value has exceeded 5.33 billion yuan, mainly exporting energy storage cabinets and supporting accessories, power batteries, new energy vehicles, etc., to more than 20 countries including the United Kingdom, Germany, Czech Republic, etc. At present, the China Europe Arctic Express relies on the summer ice age window period for operation, and plans to achieve stable navigation for 4 months per year within 3 to 5 years, striving to achieve the annual navigation target in the long run.
The China Europe Arctic Express has achieved weekly operation in the summer of 2026, which is an important symbol of the commercialization of Arctic container transportation from trial shipping. Xu Kai said that China's participation in the new exploration of the Arctic shipping route is not only a strategic need to cope with the risks of traditional shipping routes, but also a market opportunity to expand new trade channels between China and Europe. In the past six months, the Hormuz crisis has shaken the long-standing consensus in the shipping industry that "rules are predictable, waterways are passable, and risks are priced". The rise of the Arctic shipping route has provided new possibilities for restoring this confidence, but it has also brought new uncertainties. As the world's largest trading nation of goods and shipbuilding country, China needs to demonstrate both the courage of commercial exploration and the prudence of risk awe in the emerging field of the Arctic shipping route. Only by simultaneously exerting efforts in the four dimensions of ship autonomy, data autonomy, insurance autonomy, and rule discourse power can we truly open up a "sustainable maritime strategic channel".