WTO Chief Economist explains why tariffs have limited impact on global trade

The latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) recently revealed two important judgments: firstly, the trade of AI enabled products not only continues to grow, but is also accelerating; Secondly, the global impact of tariff changes seen in 2026 on trade is far less significant than the effects of AI development or the Middle East crisis.

WTO Chief Economist Robert Staiger explained that in the March forecast, "we had assumed that trade in goods supporting AI development would continue to grow in 2026, but the growth rate would slow down due to a higher base in 2025 and eventual market saturation. However, the actual situation is not like this. ”

The trade volume of goods supporting the development of AI increased by 16% in 2024, 31% in 2025, and an astonishing 67% in the first half of 2026. What is even more remarkable is its contribution to overall trade growth: although these goods account for less than 15% of the total goods trade, they contribute 47% of the global increase in goods trade volume in the first half of 2026. ”He told reporters.

On the issue of the impact of tariffs on global trade, he told First Financial reporters, "Although the trade pattern between countries has changed, the supply chain has ensured that global trade continues to grow under tariff pressure through self adjustment

He also emphasized that this reflects the resilience of the system, "the supply chain has demonstrated resilience in dealing with tariffs and found ways to serve countries interested in importing their products

Why tariffs have limited impact on global trade

Steger told reporters that some bilateral trade has indeed declined, partly due to tariffs, but the reality is that these economies are increasing their trade with third parties, so the overall trade volume of the system has not been severely impacted.

Meanwhile, the truth often exists in the details.

He explained that in March, when faced with tariff issues, in addition to the baseline scenario, high AI investment scenario, and high energy price scenario (considering the outbreak of the Middle East conflict), the WTO had considered whether it was necessary to establish a "tariff scenario".

But when we examine the data and tariff changes, we find that the overall level of tariffs at that time did not undergo significant changes. "He said that as is well known, with the US Supreme Court overturning the relevant ruling, those tariffs were cancelled on a certain Friday, but were quickly re implemented in the following days." However, in our view, the global impact of tariff changes seen in 2026 on trade is far less than the impact of AI development or the Middle East crisis. ”

A particularly noteworthy result is the import situation of goods in North America, "he explained. The region's import volume growth rate in 2026 is only 1.4%, which may seem surprisingly low considering the strong momentum of AI related investment.

However, this data conceals the fact that imports in the region dropped significantly by 10.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, which was due to companies importing ahead of schedule in response to higher tariffs from the United States at that time (Q1 2025). In the second quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of imports rebounded to 5.3%, while the annualized month on month growth rate reached 10.1%. "Steiger said," This indicates that the potential import demand in North America is much stronger than simply looking at annual data

Therefore, regarding the question of whether tariffs are included in the current WTO forecast data, Steiger said, "The impact of tariffs has indeed been taken into account, which also helps explain why North American commodity trade imports only increased by 1.4%. This figure may seem low, but as we mentioned before, it reflects the impact of tariffs in 2025 and the phenomenon of early imports due to these tariffs in the first quarter of that year

He also added, "This is a great example of how tariff data is integrated into our forecasting model. Tariff factors are indeed reflected in the forecast, but the manifestation is subtle and indirect. We do not expect significant macro level changes in tariffs in 2026

Why is' betting 'on the explosive growth of AI

In the WTO classification, AI enabled products include semiconductors, electronic components, and lithography machines used to manufacture complex chips.

Steger introduced that the strongest growth area is electronic products: in the first half of 2026, the trade volume of electronic components increased by 51%, while the growth rate of total goods trade during the same period was only 15%.

Meanwhile, the geographical distribution of such trade is also worth paying attention to. East and Southeast Asian economies account for the majority of exports supporting AI development related goods, while North America is the main source of import demand. In the second quarter alone, East Asia and Southeast Asia together contributed more than half of the global AI related product export growth. ”He stated that 'North America alone contributed nearly 19 percentage points to the global import growth of this type of product'.

Meanwhile, AI is also affecting service trade, although its impact is not as significant as in the field of goods trade.

In the first quarter of 2026, the export of computer services increased by 18% year-on-year, and in the second quarter, it increased by 12%. The export of financial services has also achieved double-digit growth, partly due to financing activities linked to AI related investments. These increases help offset the weak trend in other areas of service trade.

The WTO also wrote a special column in its report stating that "stock market valuations indicate that the AI and technology sectors will continue to expand rapidly in 2026. ”

Specifically, the S&P 500 index shows that in the first three quarters of 2026, semiconductor stocks experienced a significant increase and now account for almost one-fifth of the index's value, with "market concentration reaching a level not seen since the 1960s." The WTO stated in its report that this is in stark contrast to the mid-1990s, when banking, pharmaceuticals, oil and gas were the largest industries, each accounting for approximately 8% of the market share.

In terms of investment, the WTO uses the so-called "hyperscalers" metric, which covers investment expenditures on AI related hardware such as data centers, servers, and network equipment. Referring to other data, Goldman Sachs' research department estimates that the AI capital expenditure of large-scale cloud service providers in the United States is between $725 billion and $765 billion. The United States accounts for two-thirds to three-quarters of global related expenditures.

The WTO predicts that global AI infrastructure spending will increase by at least 30% in 2026 compared to 2025. It can be confirmed that the trade volume of AI related products and services will further increase significantly by 2026; Among them, the United States is not only the largest import destination for semiconductors and servers, but also the largest exporter of AI related services, while the largest exporter of AI infrastructure equipment is located in Asia. ”

The WTO has stated that market analysts predict that capital expenditures in the AI field will continue to increase by 10% to 20% compared to 2026 for the year 2027.

Steger concluded that the global trade landscape in 2026 is influenced by two opposing forces: the Middle East conflict, which has a significant impact on trade in services as well as goods; and the exceptionally strong investment wave in AI infrastructure. So far, the influence of the latter force has surpassed that of the former, at least in terms of goods trade, but any slowdown in AI investment could lead to a slowdown in trade growth. ”

However, he also added that based on the current S&P new order data for the technology industry (including manufacturing and services), if the value is above 50, it indicates expansion, and below 50, it indicates contraction. "From the regions we have listed - Asia, Europe, the United States, and the world as a whole, the value is far above 50. Therefore, at least there is currently no sign of an imminent slowdown