IMF raises world economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%

Bangkok, October 13 (Xinhua) -- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook report on the 13th, slightly raising its forecast for world economic growth this year to 3.1%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than the July forecast. The IMF said that the boom in artificial intelligence (AI) investment has offset the drag of the Middle East conflict on other economies by boosting some economies.

The IMF and World Bank Group's 2026 Autumn Annual Meeting will be held in Bangkok, Thailand from the 12th to the 18th. The World Economic Outlook report released by the IMF predicts that the world economic growth rate will slow down from 3.5% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, and rebound to 3.4% in 2027. Among them, the expected growth rate of developed economies this year is 2.1%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the forecast in July; The expected growth rate for emerging markets and developing economies this year is 3.7%, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the July forecast.

In major developed economies, supported by consumption, fiscal policies, and technology investment, the US economy is expected to grow by 2.3% in both the next two years; The expected growth rates of the Eurozone economy are 1.1% and 1.2% respectively, reflecting the continued drag of high energy prices and weak consumer confidence.

The IMF stated that global economic growth has diverged due to varying degrees of impact from energy shocks and AI related demand caused by wars in different countries. Economies with good economic performance have the characteristics of energy supply resilience and close connection with AI hardware supply chains. In contrast, many energy importing countries that are not closely related to the technology cycle are facing unfavorable situations such as rising import costs, weakened local currencies, and declining real incomes.

The IMF predicts that the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a 0.9 percentage point decrease in world economic growth this year, but the net impact on world economic growth will be slightly reduced due to factors such as the diversion of oil exports in the Gulf region, increased crude oil production in other regions, and the release of strategic oil reserves.

Saudi Arabia's economy is expected to shrink by 3.3% in 2026, a decrease of 5 percentage points from the July forecast. Commodity producing countries such as Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar, which have been greatly affected by energy production and transportation disruptions, are expected to experience double-digit economic contraction this year.

The IMF warns that global oil inventories are sliding towards alert levels that could trigger a significant price surge. It is estimated that the average oil price in 2026 will be $95.74 per barrel, an increase of about 41% compared to 2025.

The report predicts that the overall global inflation rate will rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, and then fall back to 4.1% in 2027.