If the EU is determined to fight a trade war with China, then give it a try

The European Commission's Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Shevchenko, recently stated that the EU will urge China to make clear commitments to alleviate the trade imbalance between the two sides and hopes to see "initial actions" before early October. He also stated that if the dialogue fails to yield results, there will be political pressure within the EU to seek "alternative solutions". This is the latest version of the "ultimatum" issued by senior EU officials to China recently, with some European media stating that "Brussels and Beijing have been on the brink of a trade war".

On the other hand, while China has always maintained smooth dialogue channels with Europe, it has not retaliated with fierce words from the European side. Instead, it constantly persuades the European side to properly address each other's concerns through dialogue and negotiation, emphasizing the need to adhere to the stable and balanced positioning of the key trade partnership between China and Europe, promote upward balance and development of China Europe trade, adhere to equal resolution of each other's concerns, and cannot unilaterally quote prices, negotiate conditions, or even use market closures as threats. This is not China's fear of Europe, nor is it our fault, but rather our utmost goodwill and patience towards China Europe relations. Europe and the United States also have huge trade frictions, but how does Europe address the US and how does Washington treat Brussels? The European side should be very clear in their hearts.

Brussels keeps setting time limits for China and demanding a 'solution' to the problem, but what we see more from it is a sense of anxiety that it has nowhere to put. However, the first question is, is this anxiety completely real? Take the trade deficit of "about 1 billion euros a day", which is often cited by von der Leyen, the chairman of the European Commission, for example. It sounds like a bluff, but actually it is just a bluff. On the one hand, it did not include the large surplus of the EU's service trade with China, and on the other hand, many products of EU companies are produced in China and resold to the European market. Although the book surplus is in China, the vast majority of profits flow back to Europe. In addition, there is also a bias in the EU's perception of Chinese goods. The European side often positions Chinese products as "cheap goods" from a high position. But in fact, the high quality and competitive prices of Chinese products today are no longer the concept of "cheap" as in the past.

What the European side needs to answer more seriously is why their competitiveness continues to be under pressure. This is the root of European anxiety. In recent years, the European economy has faced a series of structural problems such as high energy costs, insufficient investment, slow innovation transformation, and the continued fragmentation of the single market. And this is only a part of it. The EU is currently facing a complex contradiction of economic slowdown, political polarization, social division, and strategic turmoil with Russia and the United States. In this situation, if China is pushed into opposition again, the EU is essentially choosing to confront almost all major powers and important economies at a time of constant internal contradictions. This is also a rare situation in the history of the European Union.

Recently, European media have repeatedly mentioned the "trade war with China", but is the EU really ready to launch such a war? China does not want to engage in a trade war because there are no winners; But China has never been afraid of trade wars, let alone accepting negotiation methods threatened by trade wars. It is impossible for the European side to make China unconditionally "cut meat" to "fill the gap" for Europe by formulating some kind of unequal trade agreement. China will not succumb to any external high-pressure threats, as history has repeatedly proven. In fact, the EU does not have the ability to engage in a trade war with China. If it's really determined to hit, then give it a try.

China was supposed to be a strategic partner in helping the EU solve problems, but it was mistakenly seen as the problem itself. This is a huge strategic misjudgment by the EU, which is regrettable. The fundamental reason for this is that the EU as a whole lacks a systematic, comprehensive, and pragmatic knowledge system and cognitive ability towards China. There are not many influential scholars and policy makers who can truly conduct in-depth research on China. In fact, there are many successful cooperation cases between China and Europe. Taking Germany, which currently advocates a tough stance on China, as an example, the establishment of a price negotiation mechanism by Volkswagen Anhui is a representative positive case. But European media and policy circles are only willing to shout "solve the trade deficit" and create their own "political correctness pressure", and dare not mention these constructive cooperation experiences. This is precisely due to the highly emotional, one-sided, and negative nature of the EU's policy towards China.

The scale and scope of China Europe economic and trade cooperation are large, and the advantages of both sides are complementary, which can fully achieve dynamic balance in the development process. Moreover, the cake of China Europe cooperation can be made even bigger. For example, in new fields such as artificial intelligence and climate governance, China and Europe have important space for technological development and economic cooperation. Both sides can find new integration points in areas such as climate, carbon emissions, and global governance. In addition, China and Europe can continue to jointly explore how to promote cooperation within multilateral frameworks such as the World Trade Organization. If the EU persists in its unilateral actions, not only will its "competitiveness" issue remain unresolved, but these new opportunities for cooperation will also be lost. The European side needs to think twice.