China's automobile exports exceed expectations, how can the simultaneous increase in quantity and value continue
In 2026, China's automobile exports did not slow down due to global economic fluctuations, but instead accelerated beyond expectations.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in the first five months of this year, China's automobile exports increased by 48.7% year-on-year, and the export value increased by 45.5% year-on-year, achieving a simultaneous increase in both quantity and value.
"In the first half of the year, China's auto exports are expected to be close to 5 million units, which is a performance that exceeds expectations." At the monthly conference of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as the "China Association of Automobile Manufacturers") in June, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to May 2026, the cumulative export volume of Chinese automobiles increased by 53.8% year-on-year, and the export amount increased by 56.2%. Among them, the export volume of new energy vehicles increased by 78.5% year-on-year, accounting for 71.6% of the overall export volume, becoming the core driving force for going global.
As a highland of China's automobile industry, the foreign trade of the Yangtze River Delta has also been significantly driven by the "new three types" such as electric vehicles. In the first five months, Zhejiang's "new three types" exports increased by 51.7%, with electric vehicle exports surging by 91.8%. The total export of Anhui's "new three types" has more than doubled, and the export of 800000 cars remains the top in the country. In May, Shanghai's "new three types" exports increased by 61.6%, driving an overall export growth of 5.3 percentage points. Jiangsu's "new three types" exports increased by 26%, and the proportion of mechanical and electrical product exports rose to 74.1%.
Domestic 'internal competition' forces overseas expansion, with overseas becoming a key growth pole
The domestic automobile market is undergoing a deep adjustment. In the first five months of 2026, domestic automobile production and sales reached 12.235 million and 12.207 million respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% and 4.2%, respectively. In this context, exports have become a key engine driving the growth of China's automotive industry, and have also led to high-speed growth in automotive exports after two years of adjustment.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Committee, told First Financial that there are three core driving forces. Firstly, the domestic new energy industry chain is complete, and the cost and iteration speed of the three electricity supporting facilities are globally leading; Secondly, the advantage of product differentiation lies in the fact that advanced configurations such as fast charging and intelligent driving for electric vehicles are in line with global demand for electrification, resulting in a market gap due to insufficient supply for traditional car companies undergoing transformation; The third is the release of demand from emerging markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, and Russia, and the reduction of tariffs in free trade agreements.
Emerging markets have contributed the main increment. According to statistics from the World Automobile Organization, global car sales will increase by 2% in the first five months of 2026. Among them, car sales in the Chinese market will decrease by 4%, sales in the United States will decrease by 5%, sales in the Indian car market will increase by 17%, sales in the Thai car market will increase by 15%, sales in the Russian market will increase by 10%, and sales in Vietnam will increase by 35%. The driving force of emerging markets has performed well.
A person in charge of a vehicle manufacturing enterprise in Zhejiang told First Financial that the domestic market is fiercely competitive and lacks new growth poles, so it mainly relies on overseas incremental sales to ensure sales. At the same time, overseas markets can also bring relatively considerable profits.
The head of another high-end new energy vehicle brand also told First Financial that the fundamental reason for the overall improvement in exports of the automotive industry this year is that the competitiveness of China's new energy products has surpassed that of foreign products.
The explosive growth of vehicle exports has also strongly driven the upstream parts industry. A person in charge of an automotive parts company in Zhejiang told First Financial that despite the pressure of the overall environment, driven by the export of complete vehicles, the orders for automotive parts have been surprisingly good this year, with factory production capacity saturated and orders increasing by more than 50% year-on-year.
Cui Dongshu proposed that the supply of automobiles has shown a trend of increasing in the east and decreasing in the west in recent years. Except for Toyota, Hyundai Kia, Suzuki, and Tata, other international brands will experience a significant decline in market share in 2026, while Chinese domestic brands will comprehensively increase their world market share. Geely, BYD, Chery, SAIC, Changan and others have strong independent performance. The development of electrification has also led to the gradual decline of some international car companies.
According to customs data, while the export volume has increased by nearly 50%, the growth rate of export value is slightly lower than that of quantity. Cui Dongshu analyzed that the growth rate of export volume is higher than the growth rate of amount, not because the industry trades price for volume, but because of changes in export structure. For example, the increase in the proportion of low-priced entry-level car models in Southeast Asia and Russia has boosted sales and diluted average prices, compounded by factors such as raw materials and slight fluctuations in exchange rates.
Regarding going global, he believes that weak domestic demand has helped Chinese companies release idle production capacity through exports, but "going global" is more of an active global layout by car companies, rather than simply digesting inventory. As for the industry's profits, there is a clear polarization, with vertically integrated car companies such as BYD relying on self research to hedge against fluctuations in raw materials, resulting in stable profits; Small and medium-sized assembly car companies purchase core components externally, coupled with shipping and channel discounts, resulting in sufficient orders but meager profits. The continuous rise in tariffs and shipping costs further squeezes profit margins.
Sustainable growth rate, coexistence of industrial chain advantages and trade barriers
The underlying reason for this round of export boom is the global comprehensive advantages formed by China's new energy vehicles in "three electric" technology, intelligent experience, supply chain integrity, and economies of scale.
At present, the primary advantage of the domestic new energy industry chain is still cost competitiveness. Cui Dongshu believes that a complete upstream and downstream cluster and large-scale production significantly reduce the cost of vehicle manufacturing, which is the foundation for Chinese automobile companies to seize the global market. At present, the technology premium has been initially realized, and unique technologies such as 800V high voltage, integrated die-casting, and self-developed batteries can achieve a premium of about 10% in the same level in markets such as Europe. Consumers are willing to pay for smart and battery life hardware. However, the shortcomings of brand premium are prominent, and the stereotype of affordable transportation still exists overseas. It is difficult to break through the high-end market of over 400000 yuan, and high-end models are just starting to go global, with only a small premium in some areas. The overall pattern is dominated by cost advantage, supplemented by technology premium, and brand premium has not yet taken shape.
In this context, Cui Dongshu proposed that the growth rate has medium to long term sustainability, but the pressure in the second half of the year is prominent. The increase in the export base in the same period last year will suppress the year-on-year growth rate. Coupled with the tightening of overseas policies such as EU carbon tariffs and countervailing investigations, the annual growth rate will significantly decline, shifting from high-speed expansion to steady growth.
The challenges faced by Chinese automobiles in going global cannot be ignored. Chen Jingjing, Secretary General of the Automotive Branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electrical Products, stated in a previous interview that geopolitical and trade barriers are the most core challenges for "going global" at this stage, and EU tariff barriers, non-tariff barriers, and investment restrictions are becoming even greater obstacles. She stated that China's automobile exports have bid farewell to the purely trade driven stage and must shift towards localization and systematization in the future, while strictly controlling non compliant export behavior.
Faced with uncertain challenges such as carbon tariffs, countervailing measures, and fluctuations in shipping prices, Cui Dongshu suggests that car companies should, on the one hand, lay out their markets in a layered manner. For example, they can set up KD (loose component assembly) factories in high barrier areas to avoid tariffs, increase vehicle exports in the free trade market, and stabilize shipping costs through long-term price locking agreements; On the other hand, we should improve the full chain carbon footprint system and complete overseas vehicle compliance certification in advance.
In his opinion, various trade barriers are forcing overseas localization and factory construction to accelerate, but the difficulties are concentrated in three points. Firstly, there is a shortage of local components overseas, and the pace of domestic suppliers going global lags behind; Secondly, there are significant differences in regulations among countries, with high investment and long cycles in local certification; Thirdly, there is a scarcity of composite local technical management talents, and the factory production ramp up is slow. Moreover, the return period for building a heavy asset factory can last up to 3-5 years, and the funding threshold is extremely high.
In Cui Dongshu's view, Chinese automobile companies are shifting from a trade oriented approach to an ecological one when going global. Leading car companies have already established overseas factories, energy replenishment outlets, and local finance, building a basic production and sales service ecosystem. However, most brands are still in the stage of simply selling cars, and overall upgrading is in its early stages. The short-term shortcomings are the overseas after-sales system, lagging installation of spare parts warehouses and maintenance outlets, slow turnover of parts, and low residual value of vehicles; The mid-term weakness is cross-cultural marketing, which blindly adopts domestic promotional parameters and lacks brand narratives that are in line with local culture; The long-term weakness lies in the accumulation of high-end brands, the difficulty in reversing the affordable label, and the lack of high-end user operation capabilities. These three factors constrain the complete overseas ecological landing.