Emerging markets become new growth poles for foreign trade
Since the beginning of this year, China's foreign trade has shown strong momentum and a good start, with the total import and export value continuing to rise, and significant results in structural optimization and momentum conversion. The total import and export value of goods trade in the first quarter reached 11.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and the quarterly growth rate set a record high in nearly 5 years. Starting today, we will launch a series of reports titled 'Strong Momentum in Foreign Trade' to explore the current highlights, changes, and trends in foreign trade.
In the current context of profound adjustments in the global trade pattern, China's pace of promoting diversified foreign trade layout is constantly accelerating. According to customs data, the total import and export value of goods trade in China reached 16.23 trillion yuan in the first four months of this year, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. Among them, the total trade value with ASEAN was 2.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%; The total trade value with the European Union was 2.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%. Over the same period, imports and exports to countries jointly building the "the Belt and Road" totaled 8.28 trillion yuan, up 13.5% year on year.
Experts pointed out that with the continued release of dividends from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), the upgrading of the China ASEAN Free Trade Area and the joint construction of the "the Belt and Road" and other favorable conditions, plus factors such as private enterprises taking the initiative to "go to sea", overseas industrial investment driving the development of supporting trade, the adjustment of China's diversified foreign trade market layout accelerated.
Market expansion structure optimization
The diversified adjustment of foreign trade pattern is first reflected in the shift of market focus. "Data shows that in the first four months, China's import and export volume to countries jointly building the 'the Belt and Road' has exceeded 50% of the total foreign trade value." Chen Xi, a researcher at the Institute of Macroeconomics of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that this proportion shows that emerging markets are becoming a new growth pole of China's foreign trade, transforming from the cultivation of foreign trade in the past to an indispensable stability force. At the same time, China's dependence on the single market has significantly decreased, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.9% in the total trade value between China and the United States in the first four months.
From a regional structure perspective, ASEAN continues to remain China's largest trading partner. In the first four months, China's trade growth rate with ASEAN was higher than the overall trade growth rate, with strong demand from countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia. At the same time, the scale of China Africa trade has reached a historic high, with China's imports and exports to African countries reaching 885.34 billion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, and surpassing 800 billion yuan for the first time in the same period of history. Among them, imports from Africa increased by 11.2%, maintaining year-on-year growth for 8 consecutive months. Starting from May 1st this year, China has fully implemented zero tariff measures for 53 African countries with diplomatic relations, ushering in a new window of economic and trade cooperation between China and Africa.
The diversified development of foreign trade pattern is not only the extension and expansion of market focus, but also the upgrading of trade structure. Chen Xi introduced that in emerging markets such as the Middle East and Central Asia, China's exports are upgrading from traditional small commodities and daily consumer goods to high value-added products such as automobiles, construction machinery, and "new three types". According to the data in the first quarter, the amount of automobile commodities exported by China to countries jointly building the "the Belt and Road" accounted for nearly 60% of the total automobile exports.
At the same time, China's industrial upgrading drives the optimization of import structure. In the first four months, China's cumulative import of mechanical and electrical products reached 2.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%. Researcher Zhou Wei from the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce stated that this indicates that China is in the middle of the global value chain division of labor and has established extensive connections with upstream and downstream enterprises. Mechanical and electrical products not only make significant contributions to exports, but also play an active role in imports, creating better conditions for the synergy of the global supply chain network.
The changes in market structure have injected strong resilience and vitality into China's foreign trade development. Chen Xi stated that on the one hand, actively optimizing the global market structure can effectively hedge the downward pressure brought by the weakening of traditional market demand and the rise of trade barriers, continuously stabilize the basic situation of foreign trade, enhance the resilience and risk resistance of foreign trade development; On the other hand, diversified layout forces industrial transformation and upgrading, promotes the upgrading of China's export structure towards high value-added products such as electromechanical and new energy, drives the improvement and expansion of economic and trade cooperation with emerging markets, expands new space for foreign trade growth, and injects lasting momentum into the high-quality development of foreign trade.
Regional collaborative industrial upgrading
From the perspective of foreign trade, since the beginning of this year, the industrial foundation and regional advantages of various regions in China have continued to be released. But looking at the world, the current economic and trade landscape is undergoing profound adjustments. The demand trend of developed economies is differentiated, the rules of emerging markets are significantly different, international competition is becoming more intense, and the clouds of trade protectionism and technological blockade have not yet dissipated. The structural differentiation of the global external demand pattern has brought valuable opportunities for industrial upgrading, as well as unavoidable practical pressures. Opportunities and challenges are like two sides of the same coin, running through all aspects of foreign trade operations.
In the first four months, the total import and export value of the Yangtze River Delta region reached 6.14 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period in history, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9%. Among them, the export of integrated circuits and automobiles increased by 79.4% and 69.7% respectively, and the high-end manufacturing cluster effect was significant. The import and export of 9 mainland cities in the Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area reached 3.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%. Shenzhen's import and export in the first quarter increased by 33.6% year-on-year.
The foreign trade in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region continues to show a positive trend, with the total import and export value of the three regions achieving a year-on-year growth of 12%. From January to April, imports and exports to Africa amounted to 140.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, further highlighting the complementary advantages of China Africa trade. During the same period, imports and exports to other RCEP member countries increased by 23.4% year-on-year, injecting new momentum into regional coordinated development through the deep integration of industrial and supply chains.
Li Di, a researcher at the China International Economic Exchange Center, believes that the current slowdown in traditional market demand has become a catalyst for enterprises to deepen their cultivation in high-end manufacturing and green low-carbon fields, promoting the industry to move upstream in the value chain. The strong infrastructure construction and consumer demand in emerging markets provide large-scale export space for high-end manufacturing products and intermediate goods. In addition, new trade models have emerged, with research and development going global, global production and sales models being implemented. Domestic high-end manufacturing and industry standards are accelerating their export, and the upgrading of consumer spending has also driven the export of agricultural machinery, cold chain logistics, food processing equipment and other commodities.
However, the challenges behind the opportunities cannot be ignored. The complexity of cross-border supply chain management, the differences in regulatory systems, business environments, and exchange rate fluctuations among different countries and regions have also increased the difficulty and cost of market adaptation. Chen Xi suggested that it is necessary to continue to deepen the diversified layout of foreign trade, cultivate emerging markets deeply, in order to hedge the downward pressure on traditional markets and stabilize the basic foundation of foreign trade. We need to strengthen high value-added advantageous industries such as new energy and high-end equipment on the industrial side, and continue to promote the optimization of foreign trade product structure. At the same time, the string of risk prevention and control must be constantly tightened, and tools such as export credit insurance and exchange rate hedging should be fully utilized. In the long run, only by actively benchmarking international economic and trade rules, guiding enterprises to operate in compliance, and enhancing core competitiveness, can we win the trust of the market.
Going towards mutual benefit and win-win situation in both directions
Jointly building the "the Belt and Road" countries has become a key area for stabilizing foreign trade in China, with great growth potential. With the acceleration of the industrialization, digitalization and green transformation process of the co construction of the "the Belt and Road" countries, strong demand has been released from multiple tracks such as electric equipment, clean energy, digital economy and people's livelihood consumption, which provides broad space for China's export structure optimization and market diversification. "From a regional perspective, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and other ASEAN countries will continue to occupy China's top trade cooperation regions relying on the advantages of undertaking industrial transfer. The Middle East and Central Asia will become new growth highlands of foreign trade." Li Di said that in the context of global energy transformation, the demand for clean energy such as photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles, energy storage and other clean energy is in a window period of rapid growth, and the popularity of the digital economy also drives the export growth of 5G, data centers, smart terminals, industrial Internet and other industries.
The performance on the import side is equally impressive. According to statistics, in the first four months, China's imports of goods amounted to 6.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%. Looking at the timeline, by 2025, China's import scale will reach 18.5 trillion yuan, making it the world's second-largest import market for 17 consecutive years. China has achieved growth in imports from over 130 countries and regions, and has become a major export destination for nearly 80 countries.
Tropical fruits, coffee beans and handicrafts from countries jointly building the "the Belt and Road" are increasingly enriching the choices of Chinese consumers. With the opening of the market, products such as sesame from Niger and coffee from Ethiopia have also entered thousands of households through China's vast e-commerce platform and supply chain system. This cross continental "two-way rush" not only allows Chinese consumers to taste more global delicacies, but also brings tangible income to farmers and enterprises in the country of origin, achieving mutual benefit and win-win results.
"Emerging markets are becoming a new growth pole of China's foreign trade, which is the result of the joint action of policies, markets and industries." Chen Xi believes that China's high-level opening up continues to deepen, and the policy dividends of jointly building the "the Belt and Road", RCEP and other policies continue to release, constantly improving the level of trade facilitation.
The expansion of demand in emerging markets complements the supply advantages of China's manufacturing industry, which is beneficial for enterprises to expand orders, stabilize employment, and promote industrial upgrading. Experts believe that diversified foreign trade layout not only helps expand China's economic growth space, but also provides a more stable trade network and growth momentum for the world economy. In addition, expanding trade cooperation between China and more economies can enhance the stability of global industrial and supply chains, injecting certainty into the recovery of the world economy.