Business Society: Ferrosilicon stabilizes and rises within the week, with short-term bullish signals emerging (4.20-4.24)

The trend of domestic ferrosilicon market prices showing a "sideways accumulation in the first half of the week and a one-sided upward trend in the second half of the week". The price only experienced a one-time increase on the 23rd of the week, and remained stable on other trading days with a concentrated and clear upward trend, ending the previous sideways trend. According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, ferrosilicon (brand: FeSi75-B; Grain size grade/mm: natural block) market in Ningxia region. From April 20th to 22nd, the price remained stable at 5410 yuan/ton, with a daily increase or decrease of 0.00%, and the overall market sentiment was wait-and-see; On April 23rd, the price jumped by 0.71% to 5448 yuan/ton, marking the largest increase of the week; On April 24th, the price remained stable at 5448 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 0.71% during the week. The price center shifted from 5410 yuan/ton to 5448 yuan/ton, completing a rise of 38 yuan/ton during the week.

1、 Influencing factors

Upstream situation of blue charcoal: The market price of blue charcoal in the main production area is stable with some increase, and the mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials remains in the range of 900-920 yuan/ton. Supported by the price of raw coal, blue charcoal enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, and the operating rate of blue charcoal enterprises remains at around 75%. The overall supply is tight, coupled with some enterprises' production restrictions and maintenance, the difficulty of raw material procurement for silicon iron enterprises has increased, and there is no obvious downward space on the cost side, indirectly driving the price of silicon iron upward.

Demand situation: The downstream demand side presents the characteristics of "stable demand and release of replenishment demand". Terminal demand: The operating rate of downstream steel mills remains high, the orders in the finished product market have rebounded, and the steel mills' demand for ferrosilicon has remained stable without large-scale reductions; Traders stocking up: Price increases drive traders to increase their willingness to replenish inventory, and some traders lock up prices and stock up in advance. The trading activity in the spot market has increased, and the demand side has transitioned from "on-demand procurement" to "active stocking", forming a positive feedback on prices.

Inventory situation: The overall industry inventory is in a reasonably low range. Inventory in major production areas: There is no significant accumulation of inventory in silicon iron enterprises in major production areas such as Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. Enterprises mainly produce according to orders, and the pace of proactive destocking is stable. Some enterprises have orders scheduled until May, and spot resources are relatively tight; Circulating inventory: The inventory of ports and traders remains low. As prices rise, traders' reluctance to sell increases, and the market circulation of goods further tightens. The suppressive effect of inventory on prices weakens.

Steel bidding situation: In late April, the bidding price for ferrosilicon by mainstream steel mills increased compared to the previous period, which is consistent with the pace of rising spot prices in the market. The acceptance rate of steel mills is still acceptable, and the bidding price provides support for the spot market; The bidding volume has remained relatively stable compared to the previous period, with no significant reduction. The procurement pace of steel mills has been steady, and there has been no large-scale price reduction. The market game sentiment has eased, providing stable support for prices.