Business Society: Strong raw materials support bottom, hot coil center of gravity shifts upward

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 20th, the average price of hot-rolled coils in the domestic market was 3436 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.33%; The average price of cold-rolled sheet in the domestic market is 3830 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.13% compared to last week's price. The current price difference for hot and cold products is around 394 yuan/ton.

2、 Supply side: production recovery, price increase and reluctance to sell

1. Steel plant production: In April, the hot coil production was at a high level, the long and short process resumed production, and the operating rate increased, resulting in a slight increase in weekly production compared to the previous month; The steel mill has decent profits and high production enthusiasm, prioritizing the production of hot coils and reducing the proportion of building materials.

2. Factory policy: Mainstream steel mills have raised the factory price by 10-30 yuan/ton, with a strong willingness to raise prices and control shipments to reduce market pressure on circulating resources.

3. Export: Weak overseas demand and declining orders have led to a shift from reduced exports to domestic sales, increasing domestic supply pressure.

3、 Demand side: Recovery falls short of expectations, restocking on demand

1. Downstream overall: Manufacturing industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and machinery have stable demand but insufficient incremental growth. The peak season of "Silver IV" is not prosperous, and terminals are mostly available for immediate purchase, operating at low inventory levels, with a strong wait-and-see attitude, and weak willingness to accept goods at high prices.

2. Trading performance: The sharp rise in futures at the beginning of the week drove speculation to replenish inventory and increased trading volume; In the latter half of the year, prices surged and transactions fell, with intermediaries mainly shipping and limited follow-up from end-users.

3. Inventory: Social inventory is still at a high level in the past five years, with slow turnover. Delivery is approaching in May, and there is high pressure on warehouse receipts, which is suppressing the potential for future growth.

4、 Cost side: Strong raw materials and strong bottom support

Iron ore: High port inventory but steel mills replenishing inventory, strong futures, fluctuating prices and stable cost support.

Coke: The second round of price increase has landed, coking coal is relatively strong, steelmaking costs have risen, and there is a significant downward space for hot coils.