Business Society: The retail price of refined oil products has achieved "five consecutive increases" in this round

Business Society, March 23rd News
The domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on March 23, and the retail price of refined oil will be significantly raised. In 2026, the retail price of refined oil will achieve five increases, zero decreases, and one suspension. During this cycle, the crude oil market has risen, and the rate of change in crude oil is increasing. The retail price of refined oil is about to experience five consecutive increases.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market has risen. As of the 20th, the settlement price of the May WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $98.23 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose and the settlement price of the May contract was $112.19 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, crude oil prices have continued to rise, and there is still no sign of easing the US Iran conflict. The Strait of Hormuz is blocked and only a few ships can pass through. Oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia have been forced to reduce production, and supply risks have increased, providing continued support for oil prices. In addition, with weak global demand and concerns that intensified geopolitical conflicts may drag down the economy and oil consumption, the Federal Reserve is also unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term. Overall, the trend of crude oil has risen this cycle. As of the 23rd, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the tenth working day was 30.10%, corresponding to an increase of about 2200 yuan per ton of domestic gasoline and diesel oil, equivalent to an increase in price. 92 octane gasoline rose by 1.73 yuan per liter, 95 octane gasoline rose by 1.83 yuan per liter, and 0 octane diesel rose by 1.87 yuan per liter; However, the government has taken temporary measures to regulate the prices of refined oil products, resulting in an actual increase of 1160 yuan and 1115 yuan for gasoline and diesel after the regulation.

Regarding gasoline: Due to the obstruction of crude oil transportation and the cancellation of long-term contracts, some refineries are considering reducing production, suspending orders, and tightening plans. Shandong's local refineries have collectively raised prices, leading to a rapid surge in spot prices. In addition, due to the low inventory of domestic refined oil products, the inventory of domestic refined oil products is at a seasonally low level. After the supply tightens, spot liquidity further tightens, supporting price strength. However, in recent times, residents' travel and other activities have been normal, and the increasing popularity of new energy vehicles has led to lower than expected demand performance, resulting in a significant increase in gasoline prices boosted by crude oil.

In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has decreased, and in terms of demand, spring plowing has started and logistics have resumed. Construction sites and projects in various regions have started one after another, and the demand for diesel in the market is gradually recovering; The downstream willingness to take over has increased, and the supply and demand pattern is relatively tight in the short term, resulting in a significant rise in the diesel market.

Looking at the future, the key factors in this situation are the specific magnitude and duration of supply damage, as well as changes in policies in the later stages, including OPEC production adjustments and the release of reserve inventories by the United States. If the Middle East conflict persists for a long time, it will not only lead to a continuous rise in oil prices, but also exacerbate global inflationary pressures, thereby dragging down global economic growth. In the future, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the progress of the US Iran incident, the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the actual implementation effect of OPEC's production increase plan. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate has declined and the supply of refined oil products has decreased. It is expected that the gasoline and diesel market will continue to rise in the later period.