Four major changes in the global trade pattern

In recent years, economic globalization has encountered setbacks, with trade protectionism and unilateralism continuing to spread. A few Western countries have politicized, instrumentalized, and weaponized economic and trade issues, exacerbating global trade uncertainty. At the same time, the economic and trade strength of countries in the global South is growing stronger, and a new round of technological revolution is accelerating its penetration and integration into the economic and trade fields, accumulating new momentum and vitality for international economic and trade development. The global trade pattern is undergoing profound changes in the process of interwoven contradictions and dynamic transformation. In response to the new changes in global trade, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that China's determination to expand high-level opening up, share development opportunities with the world, and promote economic globalization towards a more open, inclusive, balanced, and win-win direction will not change. It is of great significance to steadfastly promote economic globalization, use China's high-level opening up to promote common development of the world, and inject more certainty and positive energy into international economic and trade cooperation.

Currently, economic globalization has entered a period of deep adjustment, and the traditional trade pattern has undergone significant changes, reflected in fundamental shifts in trade promotion paradigms, trade development priorities, trade competition methods, and trade growth drivers, presenting four distinct characteristics.

The paradigm of trade promotion has shifted from global expansion to regional contraction. In the past, the global trade promotion paradigm was built on the basis of a value chain globalization layout that prioritized cost efficiency, and multilateralism was the overall trend. Nowadays, the United States continues to escalate trade protectionism, maliciously paralyzing the World Trade Organization Appellate Body, seriously impacting the global supply chain, and making security and resilience the priority options for multinational corporations' global layout. The trade promotion paradigm is gradually showing a trend of regionalization contraction. On the one hand, trade flows have shifted from global division of labor to intra regional circulation. The proportion of intra regional trade in North America, East Asia, and other regions has expanded. The US Mexico Canada Agreement, which came into effect in 2020, has expanded intra regional trade in North America, with Mexico and Canada becoming the top two trading partners of the United States; The trade between China and ASEAN Free Trade Area has grown rapidly, and since 2020, ASEAN has surpassed the European Union and the United States to become China's largest trading partner for six consecutive years. On the other hand, political stance and values have gradually become the focus of trade access. The United States has implemented preferential trade arrangements with its allies and so-called "friendly countries", and has implemented "decoupling and chain breaking" measures against its geopolitical rivals. As a result, a large number of transit trade and third zone curve trade have emerged, leading to an increase in global trade complexity and posing severe challenges to the global multilateral trading system.

The focus of trade development has shifted from being dominated by developed countries to balanced development between the North and the South. In the past, developed countries relied on their strong capital and technological strength to shift low-end manufacturing to countries in the global South through industrial transfer, while also consuming a large amount of high-quality and affordable products manufactured by countries in the global South, establishing a global trade division of labor and final consumption system centered around them. Currently, this model has changed, with the trade status of southern countries rising and gradually driving global trade development together with developed countries. In terms of trade share, the global proportion of goods trade among G7 countries has continued to decline from over 45% at the beginning of this century to around 30% currently, while the proportion of emerging economies has increased from 23% to 42%. From the perspective of trade growth rate, the trade growth rate of countries in the global South exceeds that of developed countries, especially with rapid export growth. In the first half of 2025, the export growth rate was 5.2%, far exceeding the 1.8% growth rate of developed countries. From the perspective of the trade market, in the past, 80% of the world's final consumption demand came from developed countries, but now the internal consumption demand in emerging markets is constantly increasing, with over 57% of southern countries exporting to other southern countries. The monopoly position of the "ultimate consumer" in developed countries has been weakening. For example, in 2025, the proportion of the United States in China's import and export has dropped from nearly 20% at the peak to 8.8%, while that of the "the Belt and Road" countries has risen to 51.9%.

The mode of trade competition has shifted from shaping comparative advantages to competing for dominance in rule making. In the past, relying on production cost control to bring comparative advantages centered on high-quality and affordable goods was a winning weapon in trade. Nowadays, in addition to the game of commodity prices, the game of rules and regulations centered on the discourse power of technical standards has emerged as a new force. A few Western countries are using traditional competitive measures such as tariffs, anti-dumping and countervailing duties to protect their industries, while increasing the application of rules to seek dominance in trade competition. The current US government frequently uses "equivalent tariffs" not only to protect its own industrial interests, but also to pressure competitors to make concessions in digital technology, key minerals, and domestic trade rules. The EU has implemented carbon tariffs, forcing trading partners to comply with EU low-carbon standards for their goods and strengthening its rule leadership on climate change issues.

The driving force of trade growth has shifted from scale expansion to value appreciation. The growth of goods trade brought about by large-scale production based on resource endowment has gradually shifted towards the driving force of rising commodity value brought about by trade service, greening, and digitization. Service trade is increasingly becoming the most dynamic component of global trade. From cross-border delivery of services to overseas consumption, service trade has expanded rapidly. From 2019 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of global service trade exports was 6.7%, significantly higher than the average annual growth rate of global goods trade of 4.1%, becoming an important driving force for trade growth. Digitization significantly empowers trade growth. The application of technologies such as artificial intelligence throughout the entire lifecycle of product research and development, production, management, and services has rapidly improved the technological content and market response efficiency of products. The improvement of digital infrastructure and the rise of digital trade platforms have given rise to the "de intermediation" cross-border e-commerce model, becoming a new driving force for the growth of goods trade. Taking China as an example, cross-border e-commerce imports and exports will reach 2.75 trillion yuan in 2025, an increase of 69.7% compared to 2020. Greening creates a new trade track. Whoever can provide green products holds the right to trade development under resource and environmental constraints. Global green trade will exceed $5 trillion by 2024, accounting for 18% of the total global trade.