Goldman Sachs lowers its forecast for US economic growth

According to a report by the US financial media market observation website on March 12th, in view of the negative impact of the current Middle East conflict, the latest research report released by Goldman Sachs Group's global investment research department has lowered the expected US economic growth rate in 2026 from the previous 2.8% to 2.6%.

Goldman Sachs economists say that if the Middle East conflict continues for a longer period of time, there is a risk of further decline in US economic growth.

Goldman Sachs Group predicts that the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index will rise by 2.9% year-on-year in December this year, significantly higher than the previously predicted 2.1%; The unemployment rate in the United States is expected to peak at 4.6% in the fourth quarter. The Federal Reserve of the United States is expected to cut interest rates in September and December respectively, while the previous forecast was for a rate cut in June and September.

Goldman Sachs economists say that the main transmission channel of the Middle East conflict to the US economy is oil prices. Currently, it is expected that the average price of London Brent crude oil futures in March and April will be $98 per barrel, which is 40% higher than the average price in 2025.