International Observation | Hidden Risks in South Korea's Export 'Single Engine'

According to data released by the official statistical agency of South Korea, in the second quarter of this year, five leading companies including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix accounted for more than half of the country's total exports, and their export growth rate was significantly ahead of the overall level. Analysts believe that this reflects a structural change in South Korea's export-oriented economy, with artificial intelligence (AI) industries such as semiconductors becoming an important driving force for export growth. This includes both opportunities brought by changes in the global industrial competition landscape and economic risks of excessive industrial concentration.

The trend of export "head to head" is obvious

According to the latest data from Korea Statistical Information Service (KOSIS), the top five companies in South Korea's export volume in the second quarter of 2026 had a total export value of 138.21 billion US dollars, accounting for 50.2% of South Korea's total export value of 275.51 billion US dollars. This is the first time since South Korea released quarterly statistics in 2015 that the proportion of exports from the top five companies has exceeded 50%. During the same period, the export volume of the top five enterprises increased by 157% year-on-year, significantly higher than the overall export growth rate.

The data shows that the trend of South Korea's exports concentrating on top enterprises has significantly accelerated. In the second quarter, the proportion of exports from the top five Korean companies to the total exports increased significantly from 30.7% in the same period last year, setting a new historical high for five consecutive quarters. At the same time, the top five enterprises contributed 84.1% of South Korea's export growth during the same period, becoming the absolute driving force behind export growth.

The public opinion generally believes that the rapid development of the AI industry provides important opportunities for South Korea's export growth. The demand for chips driven by AI new infrastructure is an important driving force for South Korea's export growth in the second quarter, with top companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix showing significantly higher export growth rates than the overall market.

An article in South Korea's "Daily Economy" pointed out that this change reflects that South Korea's export growth is further concentrated in a few globally competitive enterprises. While the export resources of the country are gathering towards top enterprises, there is also a trend of increasing differentiation within the camp of large enterprises.

'Quantity increase' is not 'quality improvement'

Analysts believe that the expansion of South Korea's export scale does not necessarily equate to a synchronous increase in export competitiveness.

Jiang Haoqiu, director of the Korea China Economic and Social Research Institute, stated that apart from semiconductor chip manufacturing, South Korea currently lacks pillar industries with obvious technological advantages. Traditional pillar industries have faced intensified international competition and weakened technological advantages in recent years, and there are structural risks hidden behind the current export boom. In addition, South Korea is highly dependent on imports of raw materials and intermediate goods, and exchange rate fluctuations have become an important factor affecting foreign trade performance. The weakening of the Korean won in the second quarter is beneficial for domestic product exports, but it will also push up import costs.

Analysts point out that South Korea's manufacturing industry is deeply involved in global division of labor, presenting a typical "two ends out" feature: upstream energy, key equipment, and core components are highly dependent on external supply, while downstream products are sold in large quantities to overseas markets. In the semiconductor industry, while the export of main products such as chips increases significantly, the expansion of production by enterprises will also lead to an increase in equipment and raw material procurement, thereby synchronously driving up import demand.

'Single engine' tests economic resilience

The semiconductor industry is currently a strong driving force for South Korea's export growth, but whether a single "engine" can continue to drive the "whole car" forward depends on whether the power can be transmitted to more industries and fields.

Observers believe that the current impressive export performance of South Korea is largely influenced by the demand for chips driven by AI infrastructure and the cyclical supply-demand relationship. It remains to be seen how long the current market environment of high bandwidth memory (HBM), a competitive product of South Korean enterprises, can last in short supply.

Jiang Haoqiu believes that companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix continue to record high profits, but the profits mainly remain within the company and have not been fully converted into orders, employment opportunities, or livelihood benefits for small and medium-sized enterprises. The government should take advantage of the current profitable window period in the semiconductor industry, on the one hand, continue to increase research and development investment, consolidate technological advantages, and on the other hand, cultivate new tracks outside of semiconductors, creating more space for entrepreneurship and employment outside of top enterprises.

An article in the South Korean newspaper "Dongya Daily" pointed out that the current export boom in South Korea is highly dependent on the semiconductor sector, and the structural concentration of the industry is becoming increasingly prominent. However, the capital intensive nature of semiconductors is prominent, and their ability to drive employment is limited, making it difficult for industry dividends to benefit more industries. If this continues, the diversified development space of industries will be squeezed, or further weaken the overall resilience of the South Korean economy.