The world economy's resilience exceeds expectations, not relying on luck

The fourth quarter of 2026 is approaching, and looking back at this time point, the world economy has achieved unexpected growth this year under many unfavorable conditions, which is more resilient than many institutions had anticipated. Some Western media and institutions attributed the performance of the world economy to luck in the middle of the year, which cannot withstand scrutiny. The reason why the world economy was able to overcome unfavorable factors and achieve unexpected growth is mainly due to resolute countermeasures and active responses to unilateralism and protectionism, energy inventory and alternative supply, as well as policy adjustments in emerging economies and other practical factors, rather than vague luck.

On September 20th, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Georgieva stated at a special meeting of the Doha Economic Forum in New York that the world economy is more resilient than many people had feared. On September 23rd, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released its latest economic outlook report, raising its global economic growth forecast for 2026 from an estimated 2.8% in June to 2.9%. The report suggests that global economic growth has slowed down in the first half of this year, but many countries' economies still demonstrate resilience. The relatively sufficient oil inventory, new energy supply outside the Gulf region, and support measures taken by some countries have to some extent alleviated the impact of the Middle East situation on the global economy. At the same time, the field of artificial intelligence continues to be active, driving investment, production, and trade growth.

In the middle of this year, comments from the Financial Times and reports from the Bank for International Settlements suggested that global growth has both real resilience and a considerable degree of luck. The claim that attributing the unexpected performance of the world economy to luck is a case of reverse effect and cannot withstand factual verification. The latest report from the OECD and the IMF's description of resilience indicate that although the world economy still faces many risks, the unexpected resilience is not accidental and is supported by many practical factors.

In the field of trade, the unilateral tariff shock has not evolved into a comprehensive recession, fundamentally due to the calm response and resolute countermeasures of all parties. The Bank for International Settlements' 2026 Annual Economic Report points out that due to exemptions, trade agreements, and cautious responses from trading partners, the actual average tariff rate of the United States tends to stabilize in the second half of 2025, far below the initially announced peak of 25%; Global trade in goods continues to expand under high levels of uncertainty. In the face of protectionism, China insists on clarifying its position on platforms such as the World Trade Organization and the G20, opposes unilateral tax hikes and trade bullying, and uses precise countermeasures to urge relevant parties to return to the negotiating track. Foreign trade enterprises actively expand diversified markets, and their exports to other regions in Asia continue to grow, compensating for the decline in exports to some areas. With the joint efforts of all parties, comprehensive decoupling has not occurred, and the domestic inflationary pressure caused by excessive tax increases has also made the tax collectors hesitant. It has been proven that tariffs are not as harsh as they seem, not because of external kindness, but because of the united response of just forces and the result of rational, advantageous, and restrained struggles.

The energy shock caused by the Middle East crisis cannot be absorbed by luck. The OECD report suggests that currently, energy shocks have been mitigated through alternative transportation routes, inventory deployment, coordinated release of strategic reserves, increased production outside the Gulf, and some demand declines. Georgieva also mentioned that the extraordinary and rapid actions taken by IMF member countries in response to energy supply shocks have given her confidence. In the face of the Middle East crisis, energy departments, enterprises, and international organizations of various countries have continued to work on reserve management, origin substitution, transportation scheduling, and diplomatic communication, playing a key role in mitigating the impact.

The performance of emerging market countries and developing economies proves that resilience does not come out of thin air, but rather transforms lessons learned into policy capabilities. After years of repeated capital outflows, rapid exchange rate depreciation, and debt crises, an increasing number of emerging market countries and developing economies are placing greater emphasis on foreign exchange reserves, inflation targets, and macro prudential management. Faced with high external financing costs and fluctuations in commodity prices, some economies are no longer blindly expanding their external debt, but maintaining policy flexibility based on inflation, exchange rates, and growth conditions. According to data, multinational enterprises have reduced the impact of tariffs and supply chain disruptions through pre procurement, transshipment, and regional restructuring. This micro adaptation combined with macro policy discipline has significantly improved the risk resistance of emerging economies compared to the past.

It should also be noted that the current AI field does have a foam trend, but its role in promoting the development of the real economy cannot be ignored. The OECD regards artificial intelligence infrastructure such as data centers, semiconductors, and cloud computing as important forces supporting production and trade. This means that the support of artificial intelligence for the global economy this year is not a castle in the air, but is built on real capital formation such as data center construction, chip manufacturing, server deployment, power matching, and software development. These investments have been transformed into tangible production capacity, driving the development of related industrial chains, creating a large number of job opportunities, and providing technical support for the digital transformation of traditional industries.

Of course, the fact that world economic growth does not rely on luck does not mean ignoring risks. At present, many factors such as the prolonged interruption of energy transportation in the Middle East, extreme weather pushing up food prices, continued upward trend in long-term sovereign bond yields, and continued lower than expected returns from artificial intelligence still exist, all of which may drag down global growth. What truly determines whether resilience can continue is not the "luck" of expecting external shocks to automatically subside, but whether countries can persist in effective measures through more pragmatic cooperation and more steady reforms.