Global economy shows resilience, protectionism intensifies risks (international perspective)

On January 19th, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released an update to its World Economic Outlook report, which predicts that the world economy will grow by 3.3% in 2026, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the forecast in October last year; It is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2027, which is consistent with the forecast for October last year. Previously, the World Bank (hereinafter referred to as "the World Bank") released its latest Global Economic Outlook report, raising its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the June 2025 forecast.

The World Bank report believes that factors such as tariff shocks, escalating protectionism, geopolitical tensions, and increasing fiscal fragility still pose downward pressure on the global economy. However, the technological revolution represented by artificial intelligence is accelerating its penetration into the real economy, coupled with the investment orientation of enterprises focusing on technological innovation and green transformation, which is cultivating and forming new economic momentum, accumulating strength for the new round of global economic growth cycle. The World Bank and IMF call on governments to adjust policies, increase investment in technology and education, and jointly promote sustainable development of the global economy.

Multiple factors promote steady economic recovery

The World Bank report believes that the world economy has demonstrated resilience beyond expectations in a complex environment of intensified trade headwinds, with a growth rate of 2.7% in 2025, better than previous market expectations. Among them, developed economies grew by 1.7%, while emerging markets and developing economies became important engines of global growth with a growth rate of 4.2%. This trend is mainly due to the reasonable accumulation of trade goods inventory, the expansion of investment in artificial intelligence, and the active optimization and adjustment of global supply chains. The World Bank predicts that the global economy will maintain stable operation in the next two years, and the growth rate is expected to rebound to 2.7% in 2027, laying a solid foundation for growth.

The IMF report believes that although the global economy is facing significant trade disruptions and uncertainties caused by the United States, it still shows some resilience due to multiple factors such as higher than expected fiscal stimulus, loose financial environment, flexible response from the private sector, and improved policy frameworks. It is expected that the economic growth of emerging markets and developing economies will remain above 4.0% from 2026 to 2027, while the economies of developed economies will grow by 1.8% and 1.7% respectively in 2026 and 2027. At the same time, the overall global inflation rate will decrease from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026, and further to 3.4% in 2027.

The predictions of the World Bank and IMF are basically consistent with the "2026 World Economic Situation and Prospects" report released by the United Nations in early January. The United Nations report points out that despite a significant increase in tariffs by the United States in 2025, the global economy has shown unexpected resilience and maintained its growth momentum, supported by robust consumer spending and falling inflation. However, deep-seated vulnerabilities still exist. The sustained downturn in investment and limited fiscal space are dragging down economic activity and increasing the risk of the global economy falling into long-term low growth.

The Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics of the World Bank, Ingemet Gill, stated that "in the face of multiple shocks, the world economy's resilience to shocks has exceeded expectations, inflation is steadily falling, interest rates are gradually declining, and investor vitality continues to recover." He believes that by 2025, the global per capita gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 10% compared to before the pandemic, which confirms that the global economy is steadily recovering from the pandemic recession and gradually returning to a normal growth track.

International accounting firm Deloitte Global Chief Economist Ira Kallish believes that governments around the world are actively adapting to the new geopolitical reality, optimizing fiscal and structural policies, and providing institutional guarantees for stable economic growth. "This trend will further manifest in 2026.

US tariffs drag down global growth prospects

The IMF report suggests that uncertain factors such as trade tensions and escalating geopolitical conflicts may still exert greater pressure on global economic activity. Many economists believe that the uncertainty of US tariff policies will remain the main downside risk facing the world economy in 2026. The New York Times article pointed out that "the US government's tariff policies have caused serious damage to the global economy, and uncertainty remains the core keyword of the current global economy

The report "World Economic Situation and Prospects for 2026" believes that although some trade tensions have eased, the combined effect of tariff increases and macroeconomic uncertainty will further manifest in 2026. In 2025, global trade will still achieve a growth rate of 3.8% under unfavorable policy conditions, but this momentum is difficult to sustain. The United Nations predicts that the global trade growth rate may slow down to 2.2% in 2026. Affected by the weakening of the labor market and the suppression of growth momentum, the US economy is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 2.0% in 2026. Due to the increase in tariffs by the United States and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty putting pressure on exports, EU economic growth is expected to slow down to 1.3% in 2026. The expected economic growth rate of Japan in 2026 is about 0.9%. It is expected that the economic growth in East Asia will be 4.4%, South Asia will be 5.6%, Africa will be 4.0%, and Latin America and the Caribbean will be 2.3% by 2026.

The IMF report also believes that tariff shocks continue to weaken global growth prospects and exacerbate economic fragility. IMF Chief Economist Pierre Olivier Gulancha bluntly stated, "The US tariffs have had an impact on global trade norms, with their effective tariff rates remaining high and trade tensions continuing to escalate. There are still variables in reaching a lasting trade agreement." He emphasized that even with other positive factors offsetting the impact, tariff shocks still put pressure on already moderate growth prospects, causing damage to global economic efficiency.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development pointed out that the rise of trade protectionism brings certain policy uncertainties, and countries are also exploring a path to balance industrial development and trade freedom through practical measures. The overall tariff policy in 2026 may become more cautious. Experts from the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the United States have stated that if the tariff dispute continues, long-term economic efficiency losses will gradually become apparent, and caution should be exercised about the drag on global growth caused by the accumulation of risks.

Strengthen coordination and promote sustainable development

The digital transformation centered on artificial intelligence is becoming an important new driving force for global economic growth. The rapid iteration and accelerated penetration of artificial intelligence big model technology into various fields are driving enterprises in various countries to accelerate digital and intelligent upgrades, optimize production logistics processes, and enhance supply chain resilience and operational efficiency. The World Bank report believes that artificial intelligence will significantly improve global total factor productivity. The IMF predicts that between 2025 and 2030, artificial intelligence will drive global economic growth by approximately 0.5% annually, and the resulting economic benefits will outweigh the costs of increased carbon emissions from high-energy data centers. The Peterson Institute for International Economics also believes that "there is still some uncertainty in the realization of the benefits of artificial intelligence." The institution suggests that it is necessary to strengthen international cooperation, improve risk prevention and control mechanisms, promote the effective transformation of technological dividends into growth effectiveness, and hedge against the potential adverse effects of various policies.

Currently, the issue of uneven development remains a significant bottleneck that constrains sustainable growth. The World Bank report shows that in the next 10 years, 1.2 billion young people in developing economies will enter working age, with significant employment pressure. In response, the World Bank has proposed three policy pillars, calling on countries to increase investment in science and technology and education, optimize the business environment, and mobilize private capital to lay a solid foundation for promoting balanced and sustainable growth. In recent years, the global economic growth rate has gradually rebounded, but the current level of growth is not yet sufficient to effectively reduce extreme poverty and alleviate employment pressure. "The phenomenon of 'increasing polarization' in the living standards of high - and low-income economies deserves high attention from the international community

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development stated in its report that countries with advantages in infrastructure, talent reserves, and policy stability are more likely to attract investment. Developing economies can also gradually integrate into the global value chain by improving their development conditions, creating favorable conditions for narrowing the development gap.

The United Nations calls on all countries to strengthen global coordination and collective action to address trade pattern adjustments, price pressures, and climate shocks, rebuild trust, enhance predictability, and reaffirm their commitment to an open, rule-based multilateral trading system. This will help resolve multiple tensions in economic, geopolitical, technological, and other fields, assist developing economies in overcoming development difficulties, and promote the steady implementation of sustainable development goals.