美国加征关税冲击亚太地区贸易

联合国开发计划署近期发布的《颠覆、多元化与分化》报告显示，越南与柬埔寨面临的困难最具代表性，可能是亚太地区受冲击最严重的经济体，出口萎缩幅度预计高达19.2%与23.9%，远超亚太地区6.4%的平均水平，正面临着经济增长模式被颠覆的危险。

越南经济长期依赖出口，尤其对美贸易占重要比重。数据显示，越南36.6%的出口流向美国市场，主要集中在服装、鞋类和电子产品等领域。然而，这些产业大部分处于全球价值链的中低端，产品附加值有限，且面临较高的可替代性。美国对越南征收的平均关税从接近0上升至约20%，导致越南出口成本大幅攀升，价格竞争力被严重削弱。

尽管越南在电子产品领域具有一定竞争力，且部分半导体产品因美国供应链豁免政策而未受直接影响，但其整体出口结构仍显单一。报告提出，在越南对美出口中，有相当比例属于“难以替代但竞争力有限”的品类，例如家具和纺织品等。这些产品虽在美国市场占据一定份额，但在全球范围内并不具备显著优势，难以迅速转向其他市场。

柬埔寨的处境更为严峻。该国58%的出口依赖美国市场，是全球对美贸易依赖度最高的国家之一。服装、鞋类和旅行用品占据其出口较大比重，而这些劳动密集型产业正是美加征关税举措的重点打击对象。报告预测，柬埔寨对美出口将下降23.9%，相当于其总出口规模的三分之一以上。

柬埔寨工业基础薄弱，本土附加值低，且出口企业以外资为主，本土企业规模小，技术能力有限，难以在短期内实现产品升级或市场转移。尽管柬政府试图通过税收减免、关税优惠等方式吸引多元化投资，但全球贸易环境动荡加大了外资流入的不确定性。

除了越南与柬埔寨，一些太平洋岛国和南亚经济体也在贸易冲击中显得尤为脆弱。斐济出口以糖和服装为主，预计出口将面临19.6%的跌幅；斯里兰卡的纺织品与茶叶产业同样受到重创，出口预计下降15%。这些国家经济规模小、出口结构单一、市场集中度高，且缺乏应对外部冲击的政策空间与财政能力。

面对日益复杂的贸易环境，报告提出了对外适应与对内强化的双轨策略，为受损最严重的国家提供政策方向。

在对外适应方面，市场多元化是当务之急。越南正积极拓展与韩国、欧盟等经济体的合作，并通过打破关税与非关税壁垒促进区域供应链整合。柬埔寨则试图通过欧盟的“除武器外一切商品”（EBA）倡议待遇扩大对欧出口，以缓解对美依赖。但这些努力都需要时间，且受制于国内产业基础与外部市场准入条件。

区域经济一体化也是关键路径。东盟内部贸易与投资流动的加深为成员国提供了一定的缓冲空间。马来西亚正在打造半导体与数据中心枢纽，新加坡则通过金融与科技服务强化其区域节点功能。然而，东盟内部的非关税壁垒与基础设施差距仍是制约因素，需要更高水平的政策协调与资源投入。

在对内强化方面，提升产业附加值刻不容缓。越南与柬埔寨在尝试通过技术创新与产业升级进一步摆脱困境。其中，越南政府通过税收优惠与资金支持，鼓励企业投入高科技行业，柬埔寨试图通过设立特别经济区以吸引多元化投资。但需要注意的是，两国在人才培养、研发投入与基础设施方面的短板仍是转型的主要障碍。

强化社会保障体系同样重要。越南修订《劳动法》以扩大失业保险覆盖范围，柬埔寨通过“IDPoor”计划向弱势家庭提供现金转移。但这些国家社会保障体系的覆盖范围与资金规模仍显不足，难以应对大规模失业与经济震荡。

越南与柬埔寨的困境是亚太地区贸易格局重构的缩影。在全球经济碎片化与政策不确定性加剧的背景下，高度依赖外部市场的经济体正面临前所未有的挑战。产业链的深度、市场的多元化与政策的前瞻性是抵御外部冲击的关键。而对于越南、柬埔寨等国而言，只有通过结构性改革、区域合作与社会保障体系的完善，才有可能在复杂严峻的国际形势中找到立足之地。

译文：

US tariffs impact Asia Pacific trade

The recent report "Disruption, Diversification, and Differentiation" released by the United Nations Development Programme shows that Vietnam and Cambodia are facing the most representative difficulties and may be the most severely impacted economies in the Asia Pacific region. The expected decline in exports is as high as 19.2% and 23.9%, far exceeding the average level of 6.4% in the Asia Pacific region, and are facing the danger of economic growth mode being overturned.

The Vietnamese economy has long relied on exports, especially with trade with the United States accounting for a significant proportion. Data shows that 36.6% of Vietnam's exports flow to the US market, mainly concentrated in the fields of clothing, footwear, and electronic products. However, most of these industries are located at the middle and low ends of the global value chain, with limited product added value and facing high substitutability. The average tariffs imposed by the United States on Vietnam have increased from nearly zero to about 20%, resulting in a significant increase in Vietnam's export costs and a serious weakening of its price competitiveness.

Although Vietnam has certain competitiveness in the field of electronic products and some semiconductor products have not been directly affected by the US supply chain exemption policy, its overall export structure still appears single. The report suggests that a considerable proportion of Vietnam's exports to the United States belong to categories that are difficult to replace but have limited competitiveness, such as furniture and textiles. Although these products occupy a certain market share in the United States, they do not have significant advantages globally and are difficult to quickly shift to other markets.

The situation in Cambodia is even more severe. 58% of the country's exports rely on the US market, making it one of the countries with the highest dependence on US trade in the world. Clothing, footwear, and travel goods account for a large proportion of its exports, and these labor-intensive industries are the key targets of the US and Canada's tariff measures. The report predicts that Cambodia's exports to the United States will decrease by 23.9%, equivalent to more than one-third of its total export volume.

Cambodia has a weak industrial foundation, low local added value, and export enterprises are mainly foreign-funded. Local enterprises are small in scale and have limited technological capabilities, making it difficult to achieve product upgrades or market transfers in the short term. Despite the Cambodian government's attempts to attract diversified investment through tax breaks, tariff incentives, and other means, the volatile global trade environment has increased the uncertainty of foreign investment inflows.

In addition to Vietnam and Cambodia, some Pacific island countries and South Asian economies are also particularly vulnerable to trade shocks. Fiji's exports are mainly sugar and clothing, and it is expected that exports will face a 19.6% decline; Sri Lanka's textile and tea industries have also been severely affected, with exports expected to decline by 15%. These countries have small economic scales, single export structures, high market concentration, and lack policy space and fiscal capacity to cope with external shocks.

In the face of an increasingly complex trade environment, the report proposes a dual track strategy of external adaptation and internal strengthening, providing policy direction for the countries most severely affected.

In terms of external adaptation, market diversification is the top priority. Vietnam is actively expanding cooperation with economies such as South Korea and the European Union, and promoting regional supply chain integration by breaking down tariff and non-tariff barriers. Cambodia is attempting to expand its exports to Europe through the EU's Everything But Arms (EBA) initiative to ease its dependence on the United States. But these efforts require time and are subject to domestic industrial foundations and external market access conditions.

Regional economic integration is also a critical path. The deepening of intra ASEAN trade and investment flows has provided member countries with a certain buffer space. Malaysia is building a semiconductor and data center hub, while Singapore is strengthening its regional node capabilities through financial and technology services. However, non-tariff barriers and infrastructure gaps within ASEAN remain constraining factors, requiring higher levels of policy coordination and resource investment.

In terms of internal strengthening, it is urgent to enhance the added value of industries. Vietnam and Cambodia are trying to further overcome their difficulties through technological innovation and industrial upgrading. Among them, the Vietnamese government encourages enterprises to invest in high-tech industries through tax incentives and financial support, while Cambodia attempts to attract diversified investment by establishing special economic zones. However, it should be noted that the shortcomings in talent cultivation, R&D investment, and infrastructure between the two countries remain the main obstacles to transformation.

Strengthening the social security system is equally important. Vietnam revises its Labor Law to expand the coverage of unemployment insurance, while Cambodia provides cash transfers to vulnerable families through the "IDPoor" program. However, the coverage and funding scale of these countries' social security systems are still insufficient to cope with large-scale unemployment and economic shocks.

The dilemma between Vietnam and Cambodia is a microcosm of the restructuring of the trade pattern in the Asia Pacific region. Against the backdrop of global economic fragmentation and increasing policy uncertainty, economies highly dependent on external markets are facing unprecedented challenges. The depth of the industrial chain, diversification of the market, and forward-looking policies are the key to resisting external shocks. For countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia, only through structural reforms, regional cooperation, and improved social security systems can they find a foothold in the complex and severe international situation.