人为干扰威胁全球贸易增长根基

10月初，世界贸易组织（WTO）与国际货币基金组织（IMF）等国际机构接连发声，指出全球贸易体系正承受着单边主义和贸易政策不确定性的冲击。当前，一些国家短期的人为政策干扰，正在深刻威胁着中长期全球贸易的增长根基和全球经济稳定。

10月7日，WTO发布全球贸易展望报告称，受全球经济复苏乏力和美国关税政策等因素影响，将2026年全球货物贸易增长预期大幅下调至0.5%，这较8月份1.8%的预测值明显降低。报告还预计，2025年全球服务出口增速将从2024年的6.8%降至4.6%，2026年进一步降至4.4%，“单边关税措施和贸易政策不确定性带来强劲逆风”。8日，IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃对外表示，关税政策全部影响“尚未显现”，“全球经济韧性尚未受到全面考验，而且有令人担忧的迹象表明真正的考验可能即将到来”。

今年以来，美国一些人为设置的关税壁垒，已成为冲击全球贸易秩序最直接的破坏性力量。此次WTO显著下调预测数据，意味着明年全球贸易可能接近停滞，进而直接拖累全球经济增长。更深远的风险在于，一些国家的单边主义行为公然违背了WTO最惠国待遇和非歧视性等基本原则，导致全球贸易规则面临系统性崩塌的风险，其引发的连锁反应更会导致贸易路线被迫调整和供应链重组，推高整体贸易成本。

人为的短期政策干扰危及全球贸易的中长期发展根基，同时给发展中国家带来严重后果。有分析指出，美国关税政策可能对“脆弱国家和穷国”造成最严重打击，导致部分内陆发展中国家因运输成本高企和关税冲击而在全球价值链中加速边缘化。这不仅加剧了全球经济发展的不平衡，也使得多边贸易体系包容性发展的目标面临挑战。

全球贸易体系正经历深层次的结构性变化。一些国际机构曾警告，若主要经济体进一步加征关税，全球产出可能下降，通胀率可能上升。同时，供应链区域化趋势虽在推进，但区域贸易规模往往难以完全抵消全球产业链分工带来的效率损失，碎片化趋势也使传统全球化范式面临深刻转型。

面对严峻挑战，维护以规则为基础的多边贸易体制是应对危机的根本出路。10月6日至7日，世界贸易组织在瑞士日内瓦召开总理事会2025年度第四次会议。中方主动设置议题，提出加强透明度、集体重申对多边体制的承诺以及推动WTO取得务实成果等建议。欧盟、巴西、澳大利亚、瑞士、巴基斯坦等多方也发言呼吁维护世贸组织基本原则并推动世贸组织改革。

这表明，尽管面临逆流，大多数国家仍倾向于通过强化国际合作与对话来抵御不确定性，大多数国家仍选择通过强化国际合作来抵御逆流。在实践层面，各国和企业也在积极探索新的应对路径。越来越多的企业通过调整供应链战略，更加聚焦区域化和核心市场，以规避政策风险。数字贸易、绿色转型等新兴领域也为全球贸易的可持续发展带来了新的机遇。中国在此过程中发挥着稳定器作用，通过深化区域经济合作、推动贸易便利化等举措，以实际行动维护开放型世界经济。

短期的人为干扰或许能带来一时的政治筹码，但全球经济持续繁荣的根基仍在于开放、稳定、可预期的多边贸易体系。唯有坚持真正的多边主义，让对话取代对抗，让合作压倒分歧，才能引导全球贸易突破逆流，重归促进人类共同发展的正道。

译文：

Human interference threatens the foundation of global trade growth

In early October, international institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) spoke out successively, pointing out that the global trading system is facing the impact of unilateralism and trade policy uncertainty. Currently, some countries' short-term artificial policy interference is profoundly threatening the growth foundation of medium - to long-term global trade and global economic stability.

On October 7th, the WTO released its Global Trade Outlook report, stating that due to factors such as weak global economic recovery and US tariff policies, it has significantly lowered its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2026 to 0.5%, which is significantly lower than the 1.8% forecast in August. The report also predicts that the growth rate of global service exports will decrease from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, and further to 4.4% in 2026, with strong headwinds brought about by unilateral tariff measures and trade policy uncertainty. On the 8th, IMF Managing Director Georgieva stated that the full impact of tariff policies has not yet been fully manifested, and that the resilience of the global economy has not been fully tested, and there are worrying signs that a real test may be coming.

Since the beginning of this year, some artificially set tariff barriers in the United States have become the most direct destructive force to impact the global trade order. The significant downward adjustment of WTO forecast data this time means that global trade may approach stagnation next year, directly dragging down global economic growth. The deeper risk lies in the fact that some countries' unilateral actions blatantly violate the basic principles of WTO most favored nation treatment and non discrimination, leading to the risk of systemic collapse of global trade rules. The chain reaction it triggers will also force adjustments to trade routes and supply chain restructuring, driving up overall trade costs.

Artificial short-term policy interference endangers the medium - to long-term development foundation of global trade and brings serious consequences to developing countries. Analysis suggests that US tariff policies may have the most severe impact on "fragile and poor countries", leading to accelerated marginalization of some landlocked developing countries in the global value chain due to high transportation costs and tariff shocks. This not only exacerbates the imbalance in global economic development, but also challenges the goal of inclusive development of the multilateral trading system.

The global trading system is undergoing profound structural changes. Some international organizations have warned that if major economies further impose tariffs, global output may decline and inflation rates may rise. At the same time, although the trend of supply chain regionalization is advancing, the scale of regional trade often cannot fully offset the efficiency losses caused by global industrial chain division of labor, and the trend of fragmentation also poses a profound transformation to the traditional globalization paradigm.

In the face of severe challenges, maintaining a rules based multilateral trading system is the fundamental way to deal with crises. On October 6-7, the World Trade Organization held the fourth meeting of its General Council for the year 2025 in Geneva, Switzerland. The Chinese side took the initiative to set agenda items, proposed to enhance transparency, collectively reaffirm commitments to the multilateral system, and promote practical results in the WTO. The European Union, Brazil, Australia, Switzerland, Pakistan and other parties have also spoken out calling for upholding the basic principles of the World Trade Organization and promoting its reform.

This indicates that despite facing headwinds, most countries still tend to resist uncertainty by strengthening international cooperation and dialogue, and most countries still choose to resist headwinds by strengthening international cooperation. At the practical level, countries and enterprises are also actively exploring new response paths. More and more companies are adjusting their supply chain strategies to focus more on regionalization and core markets in order to avoid policy risks. Emerging fields such as digital trade and green transformation have also brought new opportunities for the sustainable development of global trade. China plays a stabilizing role in this process, maintaining an open world economy through practical actions such as deepening regional economic cooperation and promoting trade facilitation.

Short term human interference may bring temporary political leverage, but the foundation of sustained global economic prosperity still lies in an open, stable, and predictable multilateral trading system. Only by adhering to true multilateralism, replacing confrontation with dialogue, and allowing cooperation to overcome differences, can we guide global trade to break through the current and return to the right path of promoting common human development.